prompting topics in the style of robert caro instantly makes for a better read
excellent thoughts on cyber
TLDR: Cyber is not a compelling risk adjusted return today. You momo losers can't convince me otherwise.
Short $CRWD $OKTA / Long $MDB $NOW
$CRWD and $OKTA are priced for perfection. The AI bull case can play out and these stocks can suck. Plenty of reasons to justify this view:
1) valuations are stupid
2) AI raises competitive risk in CYBER
3) cheaper, better, non-SW ways to play the AI story
4) non-cyber SW better risk adj return
days like this are a good reminder that you can't just own a portfolio of good businesses at low valuations without at least some ai bottlenecks thrown in
this is a reflection of how out-of-touch the average SF AI investor is than a negative read on Vail
Even after the rip SPCX feels asymmetric to the upside
index of frontier tech with lots of ways to win in three of the biggest markets ever (AI/comms/space), and extremely moated in 2 of the 3
Cult investor base, ST/event funds short, numbers great, Elon pump, cheap if #s work out, tsla merger potential. understand there is alot of NT risk and uncertainty, but can see case where this is 5-10x current value and still reasonably valued
chatSBC retweeted
$CBRS The most disruptive chip in decades, sitting at the heart of the AI revolution in a niche set for explosive inference growth over the next few years, already validated by the gods of AI... it’s worth just $25B? Are we insane? People demanding cheap multiples are very naive.
