the 1% that chooses dollars over delusion // founder, ceo chip capital (+$1m aum)
United States
Joined August 2023
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$IREN RSI hit my target. I sold.
$40k -> $440k 馃馃徏馃馃徏
Good enough for me.
I am a humble man.
I do not bitch.
I set an entry and exit.
Then execute without hesitation.
I post my winners and losers. Have zero ego and no fake image to maintain.
Considering vol past few weeks, -28% is acceptable risk.
BTC is reflexive asset. Higher prices lead to higher prices, and vice versa.
Weekly candle <$80K is no longer incredibly bullish to me.
Like I have been saying.
Operating income + operating margins + low debt.
All you need to know.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn鈥檛 have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we鈥檙e investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Still happy with this decision. One year later. Even though everyone made fun of me.
The point is this: No one know shit about fuck. Not me (I am often wrong). Not your influencers. Not the CEOs. Not the suits.
Many acknowledge upside risk. But few acknowledge downside risk.
$IREN is $40 now.
Why I am happy I didn鈥檛 buy at $33 and the secret truth influencers don鈥檛 want you to know (from someone who bought the stock at $5 and turned $40K into $440K):
So I missed my layer in target of $33 by $0.50. Pennies.
Could I have just bought at $33.50 and called it a day? Better yet, just sell $0.50 worth of far OTM weeklies after buying and got $33 cost basis anyways? Yep. Absolutely.
Was I certain that $33.50 was a great price? And that $34 or $35 or even $40 is just a pennies difference at the end of the day? Yep. I鈥檓 aware.
Then why did I not buy at $33.50 or even FOMO in at $40 now?
Truth is, I am at a different stage of investing now. Gone are the days of low DTE far OTM call options. Staring at the chart like a mad man. Trying to maximize every PnL.
$IREN gave me the ultimate gift. A golden egg. I don鈥檛 need to go looking for another one. What I have is right in front of me. Everything I need. Married now. Touch grass daily. I study and work for meaning, not food.
Now my goal is different: Never lose. Never fucking lose the goose egg. Never start at zero ever again. Fuck that. I know what it鈥檚 like to be poor, and I will never risk that shit ever again.
Part of never starting at zero ever again is acknowledging risk. Tail risk especially. Yeah, the company is great. But it is not God. Your influencers will never admit it, but anything can fail. Zero. Overnight.
Idolatry and false prophets will promise the 100% all-in leveraged giga-send. All fake engagement bait BS. Nothing is invincible. All probability.
The best cards can still lose. And shit cards can still win. Only when you play enough games can skill be an edge against probability. Don鈥檛 let one trade explode whole account over a tail risk event.
This is why I have targets. And stick to them as close to my chest as I can. Win small, medium, or big. But never fucking let yourself go to zero. Play, but never let the game end because you ran out of chips.
I have plenty of chips left. And I could not have been more pleased with my disciplined approach. Thankful.
There's a secret fairy that resets my Codex usage limit every time it goes to zero.
I have no idea why or who is doing this. But they are saving my life.
Will tell you exactly what is happening. And where the alpha is.
Market is getting upset over debt. And clumping all names in AI category together. Good. That delta is your alpha.
Your mission is simple and can be done in 1 hour: Find the AI names with high operating income, high operating margins (which I have been advocating for years at this point).
Additional requirement: Low debt.
These two items. NOW. Not in 1 year or 5 years. But now. At this current time.
The market wants absolute money making killing machines with low default risk.
Keep it simple. Don't overcomplicate with fancy prose.
Your brain has limited tokens. Keep the input clean.