Jonathan

Those figures don't prove what you think they prove. We've been looking into this using various tools to track things. Info as follows: National's party vote fell from 38.08% in 2023 to 29.21% in 2026, a drop of nearly nine percentage points. Yet its electorate candidate vote fell by just 2.21 points, from 43.47% to 41.26%. In other words, National's electorate candidates held up remarkably well despite the party's collapse in support. The gap between National's candidate vote and party vote has more than doubled, from 5.39 to 12.05 percentage points. That's entirely consistent with increased split-voting, although it doesn't tell us how many voters were influenced by any particular campaign. Meanwhile, turnout is estimated to have fallen from 78.2% to 74.6%. Getting disillusioned voters to turn out at all was clearly another challenge. We won't know the full picture until the official results are in, but claiming these numbers prove the campaign made no difference is simply not supported by the evidence.

Yesterday’s election confirmed what so many already knew -National’s list MPs were never getting back in. The maths never lies. The writing had been on the wall for a long long time. Losing talented people is incredibly sad and i'm gutted for some of them. But strategic voting helped National win electorates and create an overhang to counter the left’s almost flawlessly executed overhang strategy. Without it the centre-right would have little chance of forming the next government. The left used the rules of MMP. The right had to do the same to have a chance. The numbers show a 20% increase in vote splitting on the right from the last election. The message clearly gained traction and thankfully has given the centre-right a real chance of forming the next government. Yet 706,000 party votes still went to National without adding seats beyond its electorate wins. Essentially wasted votes. I do wonder whether @NZNationalParty should have understood that maths and been more upfront about it with voters. Once the list seats were out of reach the success of the right bloc should have become the priority. We can be sad about losing good people and still recognise why strategic voting made sense. The maths doesn’t change to suit party loyalties. For me this comes back to the future we want for New Zealand. We should remember the damage history shows socialist and communist economic policies have done when they crush incentives to build and invest. They shrink the pie and drive out talent and capital. Then politicians act surprised when productivity falls and living standards go backwards. Sometimes I think the left forgets how much our living standards depend on businesses creating jobs and wealth. You cannot keep promising to spend more without backing the people who make that possible. At ZURU we employ hundreds of people here and plan to grow that to thousands over the next decade. Around 99.5% of our projected revenue of more than $10 billion next year will come from overseas. We are fighting to bring more of that wealth home and create opportunities for talented Kiwis to build careers and eventually businesses of their own. We need more companies doing that. More investment. More well-paid jobs. A bigger tax base to pay for better hospitals and schools. Higher living standards for everyone and better support for our most vulnerable. I want young people to see a future here and families to get ahead. That takes a country willing to back people who build things and create wealth. That is what I care about. Far more than any one party. At the end of the day I want NZ to kick ass.

National's vote on the night is basically where the last opinion polls had it and higher than the 26% thereabouts that it was earlier. It is quite possible that Seymour's leadership on fiscal issues enticed right leaning voters and that NZF's hard campaigning also bore fruit.

Fucking Oooooops 🤦‍♂️ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3997… academic.oup.com/cid/article… pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3923…

CAUTION! ⚠️ Two ticks blue? 👀 Another of our Vote Smart billboards out in the wild! With the election just days away, there's still time to get your head around how MMP works and what your two votes actually do. Still a bit confused? We've got two handy resources to help you make sense of it all! 🌐 VoteSmart2026.co.nz 🔎 VoteCheck.co.nz 🗳️ Last day to vote: Saturday 7 November! 📢 Vote Smart 2026 campaign authorised by RCR Media | [email protected]

🗳️ WHAT'S THE STORY IN YOUR NECK OF THE WOODS? We're back with another four electorates from our new Vote Check tool! This time we're taking a look at Auckland Central, East Cape, Maungakiekie and Waitākere. There's a bit of everything in this batch. One close contest and three electorates where the projections show a more comfortable lead. But how comfortable is comfortable? And what might that mean for the electorate vote? Remember, these are projections based on available data, and the actual results could look quite different come Saturday. 🔎 Find your electorate and explore the numbers for yourself: votecheck.co.nz/ 📢 Vote Smart 2026 campaign authorised by RCR Media | [email protected]

🗳️ HOW CLOSE IS YOUR ELECTORATE? We're taking a look at some of the closest contests on Vote Check, and there are some interesting races around the country! First up: West Coast–Tasman, Wairarapa, Wellington North and Banks Peninsula. According to the current projections, the gap between the top two candidates in each of these electorates is just 1 to 4 percentage points. Of course, projections aren't guarantees. Saturday's results could tell a different story! Curious about your own electorate? Have a nosey at our new tool: 🔎 votecheck.co.nz/ 📢 Vote Smart 2026 campaign authorised by RCR Media | [email protected]

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