Crypto Sim retweeted
As someone who has personally spent $500k / mo+ on Google Ads for years, I can tell you with certainty:
This revenue growth in Search is artificial & extremely unhealthy for Google’s business long term
Search volumes are declining as legacy search is being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries
Google’s response?
Manufacture revenue growth via short-sighted, highly extractive, customer-hostile tactics. I.e. charge advertisers more for lower quality clicks, including clicks they do not want and explicitly did not approve Google to charge them for
A few examples to illustrate:
For all of its history until recently, Google operated on a 2nd price auction model
I.e. if you bid $5 CPC and the next highest bidder bids $1 CPC, Google charged you $1.01 for the click (one penny more than the 2nd highest bidder) rather than the $5 you bid
This was a genius move by Google early on as it incentivizes advertisers to input their true maximum willingness to pay rather than trying to play the game of bidding low and constantly adjusting to try to stay just ahead of the next highest bidder while still not paying too much
However recently, Google silently deprecated the 2nd price auction and began charging advertisers as much as their bid and budget caps allow, regardless of what anyone else is bidding
It’s a short-sighted cash grab at the expense of the long term health of the advertiser ecosystem
Making thing worse, Google also recently nerfed keyword targeting precision
Google previously had precise keyword targeting settings that allowed advertisers pick individual search phrases to bid on, defined down to the character w/ exact match or phrase match targeting
This was one of the core features that made search advertising magic, enabling advertisers to run extremely precise campaigns based on exactly what their target customer typed
But now, even if you bid on a specific term or phrase using the strictest exact
-match targeting settings, Google will show your ad across 1000’s of unrelated keywords, labeling them as as “exact match (close variant)”
The definition of “close variant” means whatever they want it to and changes constantly. The result is advertisers get billed for clicks that are totally irrelevant to their business and that their targeting settings explicitly forbid Google from targeting. Google does it anyway and there’s no ability to turn this off
So now exact match is broad match, and broad match is just meaningless spam
This is all very bad for advertisers, but for Google, it allows them to show your ad and bill you for clicks across 1000x more searches that were previously going unmonetized (mainly because they’re garbage queries no one wants)
This is how you grow revenue atop declining search volumes
Lastly, and perhaps most egregiously, Google quietly stopped respecting budget caps by a factor of 2x. For example campaigns we’ve been running for years with $1000 daily budget caps suddenly began spending $2000+ per day
And the extra spend is entirely on the garbage keywords Google arbitrarily throws in as “exact match (close variants)” which have no value to our business, but can’t be turned off
Google offers no refunds nor any recourse for overspend or spend on keywords you explicitly did not target
These are not the actions of a healthy business. These are the actions of company whose core business is in decline but desperately needs to pump quarterly earnings so Wall Street will continue to fund insane capex while hopefully looking through their rapidly deteriorating negative free cash flow
Google operated a benevolent monopoly for the better part of 25 yrs
Meaning the value Google captured from Search was but a small fraction of the value it created, and that spread produced a potential energy that justified expectations of high earnings growth far, far into the future
This is now no longer the case
At the alter of AI capex, Google is sacrificing the golden goose
Q2 was an amazing quarter, with our AI investments redefining what’s possible across every part of our business.
Alphabet revenue grew 24% YoY and Google Cloud accelerated to 82% growth. We saw exciting momentum across the board from Search to YouTube to the Gemini app (which reached 950M monthly active users). Our model APIs are processing 22B tokens/min (up from 16B+ last quarter) driven by our workhorse Flash models. We’re also seeing great adoption of Gemini Enterprise, used by 90% of the Fortune 100, as well as strong demand for our security solutions.
Outstanding results and momentum, and such an exciting moment—thanks to all of our partners and employees around the world! 🙌 About to hop on the call!
Crypto Sim retweeted
John Lupton’s track record is circulating on X. If you’ve been around long enough, you probably remember him as one of the kings of the 2021 stock boom. Almost 500,000 followers, and judging by his tweets, you’d think he was always making money. He opened a fund, -17% YTD.
🧵
Crypto Sim retweeted
Don’t use indicators Wall Street used none of this do not be hated by these sack of 💩 engagement farming cucks these plebs all live at home with mom trust that including this pleb 😸
Crypto Sim retweeted
Dread to think what @brian_armstrong uses Grokbot for when he allows this shit to go on. Base is for everyone right Brian? Even @zachxbt had to get involved further up that thread.
Crypto Sim retweeted
$GOOGL CFO:
“Given the supply constraint environment, we started utilizing third-party compute capacity at the end of Q3, and will ramp usage in Q4.”
“Expect margin headwinds in the near term as we utilize this capacity.”
Expect our CapEx to increase significantly in 2027
Crypto Sim retweeted
Oracle $ORCL is projecting a nearly $54B turnaround in annual free cash flow over 3 years
Now expects to turn FCF positive in the H2 of FY28 & generate at least $30B in FY29
Expects its massive AI data center spending to peak in FY27-FY28 before declining in FY29
By FY29, Oracle says its growth will be self-funded.
Oracle $ORCL targets $225B+ in annual revenue by FY2030.
Key financial targets:
• FY27 revenue: $90B+
• FY30 revenue: $225B+
• Revenue growth: 35%+ CAGR through FY30
• FY30 non-GAAP operating margin: 40%+
• FY30 non-GAAP EPS: $21+
• Positive free cash flow: 2H FY28
• FY29 free cash flow: $30B+
• CapEx to peak in FY27-FY28
• Growth to become self-funded in FY29
• FY29 net debt/EBITDA: Below 3.5x
Oracle also plans to limit additional capital raises through FY30 to $20B:
• $10B in equity
• $10B in debt
This excludes debt refinancing and is separate from the $20B equity raise already completed in Q1 FY27.
Crypto Sim retweeted
*ORACLE CORPORATION - REAFFIRMS FY27 OUTLOOK: $90 BLN+ REVENUE, $8.1 NON-GAAP EPS
*ORACLE CORPORATION - TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL CAPITAL RAISES TO $20 BLN THROUGH FY30
$ORCL
Crypto Sim retweeted
Israeli opposition leader theoretically has enough seats to oust Netanyahu. The problem is he'd need the support from the Arab parties. And if they join government, then the non-Arab parties will no longer support him.
Shekel worst performing currency
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Crypto Sim retweeted
Exciting updates on gene editing support from the U.S. Government!
We didn’t plan this… but just a few hours after our conference call outlining Beam’s vision to deliver increasingly customized genetic correction therapies to patients, even more news hit
Crypto Sim retweeted
“Lost my house day trading. Buy my PDF for only $49.99 if you want to do the same.”
Crypto Sim retweeted
Surprise 1: Anthropic acquired a one-person biotech
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Surprise 2: that person is me
Surprise 3: I’m here to tell you all about it
Yes, this is what you think it is; after 6 yrs of increasingly loose anonymity: the Professor Oak reveal post
…and yes, it has gotten so boring around here that I’m literally doxxing myself to spice up the timeline
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Ok, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Cody Tranbarger. I mostly tweet, but occasionally find time to dabble in drug dev & starting/building biotechs. My past lives span the VC, crossover, startup continuum; Prof Oak has been my way of keeping a digital foot in those worlds, despite having my physical feet planted elsewhere.
The past 18 mo, ‘elsewhere’ was Mithril Medicine, a co. I founded to develop bsAbs for LAMA2-CMD & other ECM-related genetic diseases.
Mithril was born out of hands-on building with @MikeNGladstone, @JasonPaulRhodes, @LifeSciVC, & team @atlasventure. Somehow, I made enough half-decent calls along the way (even a broken clock is right twice a day, eh?) to convince them Mithril/I warranted a small seed. While I can hardly rationalize such an outrageously cavalier bet, I’m grateful for it, & I'd partner with Atlas again in a heartbeat.
In typical AV fashion, Mithril’s primordial form was virtual, decentralized, & ultra-lean. This stage tends to be short-lived, but for Mithril, it worked surprisingly well, for surprisingly long, thanks in part to the rapid maturation of the AI tools I used liberally.
Eventually, Mithril became a bit of an experiment itself - to find the upper bound of how far it could scale as a single operator + a bunch of Claude (+ a stellar bench of part-time consultants).
In parallel, I started spending time with @nc_frey, @an1lam, & @CoefficientBio team; and promptly experienced, for the 1st time, AI at the frontier. Soon thereafter, Mithril stopped looking like an experiment, & started looking like a preview of an entirely new operating model.
From that spark came “Pipeline-in-a-Person.” The idea immediately resonated when we shared it here back in April; and it was central to the shared vision that led to Anthropic’s acquisition of Mithril, & my joining the team.
Why join Anthropic? Three reasons.
(1) For Mithril, the programs continue, with more resources & infrastructure behind them, and as much Claude as I can put to work.
(2) For me, the chance to start several more programs, & find out how many one person can actually run in parallel - an almost unprecedented luxury for a curious drug hunter.
(3) For our mission, a path to institutionalize & scale this new way of working, then put it in the hands of all of biopharma, all over the world - which, candidly, I find the most energizing.
Will AI x Bio cure diseases? Unequivocally yes, imo… but not by the route that gets the most airtime. Rather than timeline acceleration & compression, I see orchestration & parallelization as today's low-hanging fruit.
Most drug hunters see a handful of go/no-go calls in a career, & spend entirely too much of the rest trading emails (my inbox can attest).
Give them the bandwidth to run several programs at once, and the time to focus on scientific judgment, and I’m willing to bet they’ll make better calls. And at scale, better calls translate to more drugs, higher hit rates, broader patient impact, & likely, a disease or 10 or 100 cured. I couldn't be more excited to build toward that future @AnthropicAI.
Finally, a heartfelt thank you to BioTwitter/X. The end of anonymity is bittersweet, but if anyone’s earned a proper introduction, you all have.
It’s difficult to overstate how much this app has done for me: a decade of education, plenty of friends, many job opportunities, several mentors, a few investors, even a co-founder (fmr). It was the generosity of this community that inspired me to start posting 6 years ago, after just as many years lurking. I hope I’ve been able to pay it forward, in my own small way.
But, to be clear, Prof Oak isn’t going anywhere. Same beat, same themes, and now, a front-row seat to drug development at the frontier. Stay tuned for dispatches from the trenches; and remember...
Gotta Cure 'Em All
Crypto Sim retweeted
ANTHROPIC SAYS IT HAS ACQUIRED MITHRIL MEDICINE TO RUN RARE DISEASE PROGRAMS, ADDING THAT IT WANTS TO SHARE ITS MODELS WITH DRUG DEVELOPMENT RESEARCHERS AND AS MANY RESEARCHERS AS POSSIBLE, AND THAT IT LOOKS FORWARD TO WORKING WITH MORE ORGANIZATIONS
