Crypto Clarity in a Realm of Shadows
Joined August 2022
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ImaLeech retweeted
JUST IN: US startup successfully produces the first ever gold grown in a laboratory
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Gold atoms have been produced in labs for decades via nuclear transmutation (e.g. Seaborg 1980s, CERN picograms); this unverified tiny-scale company claim from Oct 21 is not "first ever," not scalable production, and not "grown" like diamonds.
x.com/MarathonFusion…
learn.apmex.com/learning-guide…
iflscience.com/gold-can-be-ma…
glitchwire.com/news/marathon-…
business-standard.com/world-news/us-…
ImaLeech retweeted
Governments are borrowing at the fastest pace since the pandemic.
Net borrowing by advanced economies will reach 5.2% of GDP this year, the highest since 2021, per the IMF.
The U.S. and China are on track for deficits of 8% of GDP or more in 2026.
ImaLeech retweeted
U.S. inflation has now been above the Fed’s 2% target for 66 straight months, more than five years.
It’s only the third time in the past century that inflation has stayed above 2% for at least five years, per Bespoke Investment Group.
ImaLeech retweeted
America appears in a homebuyer recession.
Mortgage purchase applications are down 60% from their pandemic peak, per Redfin.
Demand is now back near 1995 levels, lower than at any point during the 2008–2012 housing crash.
It comes as mortgage rates sit above 7%, pending home sales hover near record lows, and a record 14% of September deals were canceled.
ImaLeech retweeted
BREAKING: Banks are taking back more homes.
Lenders repossessed 5,794 homes in August, up 42% from a year ago and 22% from July, per ATTOM.
That’s far faster than the 13% rise in overall foreclosure filings, meaning more distressed homeowners are reaching the end of the process.
ImaLeech retweeted
JUST IN: Elon Musk's Tesla $TSLA officially unveils new flying Roadster.
ImaLeech retweeted
U.S. homebuyer demand is now weaker than during the 2008 housing crash.
NAR's pending home sales index hit 71.2 in August, below any reading from 2008 to 2011.
Contract signings are down roughly 45% from the 2020 peak and about 30% below pre-pandemic levels.
Mortgage rates are the problem: signings peaked in 2021 when rates were near 3%.
ImaLeech retweeted
Since 2019, corporate profits have surged 52%, while average wages have edged up just 12%, per Groundwork Collaborative.
ImaLeech retweeted
The best possible evidence the Bitcoin bottom is in:
Long-term holder supply in loss peaked on June 30th.
In every prior cycle, the day this metric peaked was the day the pain ended.
Price never closed below that day's level again. Ever.
2015: peak at $210. 12 months later, $580.
2019: peak at $3,566. 12 months later, $9,900.
2020: peak at $4,842. 12 months later, $57,271.
2022: peak at $16,700. 12 months later, $43,473.
This cycle's peak came at $58.5K. Bitcoin is $77.4K today, and supply in loss has already dropped 24% off the record.
The median 12 month forward return based on prior cycle peaks would imply a $162,000 Bitcoin price by September 2027.
ImaLeech retweeted
A new structural buyer has emerged in the gold market.
Since 2024:
- Tether: 73.6t
- China: 49t
Tether has purchased more gold than China officially and now holds more gold than Australia, the world's third-largest gold producer.
We've never had a gold bull market with a structural bid like this.
ImaLeech retweeted
14.9% of all homes for sale in the United States tried to de-list and re-list, per Parcl
ImaLeech retweeted
AI is the greatest mass psychosis event in history
Zero productivity gains showing up in the real economy after $3 trillion in spending
Surely the next $3 trillion will fix this though
