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I count what others feel | Prediction market portfolios | Sport·Math·Edge | Models, not magic | @CoinMarketCap https://xitter.cf/t.co/krp0rc4MKl

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Joined May 2012
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Thinking in Probabilities. Why 90% Is Not What Your Brain Thinks It Is

When the market sits at 90 cents, most people think "almost certain" A pro thinks: one out of ten times I will lose everything and I need to know in advance what that will cost me

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Blind copytrading can destroy a bankroll

In a single player game, copying a winning move makes sense. You see the action, you replicate it, you get the same result

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England vs Argentina: Five Games, Forty Years, One Rivalry

Wednesday's semifinal is the sixth World Cup meeting between these two teams. The first five built one of the most loaded rivalries in football

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World Cup 2026: One Month Out

The market is doing what it always does before a major tournament. Everyone's stacking all favorites at 80¢, 85¢, 90¢ - Spain, France, England, Brazil - building "safe" portfolios that will resolve…

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10 Rules You Need to Understand When Moving from Web2 Bookmakers to Prediction Markets in 2026

I spent years working inside traditional bookmaking. Built models, analyzed thousands of lines, watched how the house edge actually works from the other side of the table

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Prediction markets are not just a financial tool. They are a mirror of collective intelligence

First is epistemic honesty as a survival skill When you pay money for a belief you stop believing what you want to believe. You start believing what is probable The market punishes wishful thinking …

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Everyone chasing 30% ROI traders. Nobody asking how many trades that covers

That number means nothing without distance. Here is why

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Merlin update. March 19–26

"We switched to reading directly from Polymarket's settlement feed. Trades hit much faster, nothing gets missed"

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Winning feels right. Losing is guaranteed

Introduction

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Parletto: Bringing Parlay Mechanics to Prediction Markets

You can bet on whether a candidate wins an election, whether inflation hits a target, or whether a court ruling goes one way or another. But almost every market today still treats these events individ…

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Polymarket Arbitrage Is Not a Math Olympiad

Somewhere along the way, prediction markets acquired a strange intellectual fashion: people started throwing around optimization theory as if trading on Polymarket required solving a graduate-level c…

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When a Poker Player Discovers Prediction Markets

He has studied poker strategy. He understands bankroll management. He knows the Kelly criterion, the psychology of tilt, the importance of discipline, and the long-term mathematics of expected value. …

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