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Achei um paper que pode mudar como a macroeconomia mede dinheiro. "An Asymmetric Weighted Moving Average for Monetary Aggregates" Mayall & Junior (PUC-Rio) 55 anos de dados. EUA + Brasil. 3 agregados. Metodologia séria. Li inteiro. Tem contribuições técnicas fortes, resultados que surpreendem e limitações honestas. Thread pra quem gosta de macro de verdade 🧵

Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history. The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade. Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride. Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.