L/S equity HF Mgr. | Macroeconomics | Special Situation Investor | Nothing written by this account is financial advice, do your own research

Manhattan Beach, CA
Joined November 2024
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🤖 Made with AI
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$AMTX just went cash flow positive & nobody noticed. “The market” is stupid, that’s why only a couple percent are rich. Almost nobody even tries to buy low. $AMTX was a 10x from 3, now it’s a 20x. & that was before AI data center. Might be a 40-50x now.
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MACRO: this was indeed the top.
MACRO: I’m raising cash. Selling covered calls, buying low risk fixed income. I believe the next 18 months will be the most grueling and there isn’t much cushion in equities for it to make sense from a r/r perspective.
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Im seeing a ton of “everyone thinks it’s black monday, so the pain trade is up” posts. Stfu. Sit back. Times are different now. The pain trade is so down that it makes your favorite fintwit influencer silent for 6-12 months. Cost of capital is higher. Iran war is not over until a MOAB gets dropped. Oil prices aren’t at $150 yet. S&P is only 3% off its highs. The market regime has changed. Stop begging for your next dopamine hit. S&P FCF yield is like 2%. Why wouldn’t I just own TLT and get risk free 3x the yield?
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Finance creates its own reality primarily through reflexivity, where collective human beliefs, perceptions, and market expectations actively shape economic outcomes rather than just passively tracking them. Why is this relevant through the frame of the AI trade? If $CRWV and the pure play infrastructure companies can’t fulfill on their commitments both debt and revenue, then what’s to say lenders are willing to lend to these business models after an inevitable default? Most of these businesses can’t work if their cost of capital is too high. Debt has gotten more expensive, and now their equity is tanking, making ATMs highly punitive to share count. If these businesses can’t scale without getting $ from Nvidia financing their GPUs, then how does the application layer (the Anthropic’s of the world) continue to scale ARR? That’s the issue I primarily see happening in 2027. Expectations have been built so high, the markets have reflexively priced businesses as if AGI has been achieved broadly and cash flows are imminent. That’s just not the case. There’s still a massive lead time on the building of power infrastructure. Everything from power transformers, gas turbines, water, grid connections, permitting, and politics get in the way. I’m incredibly bearish on these bottlenecks causing a prolonged slowdown if the democrats win the midterms. Stay vigilant and defensive for the next 18 months. Buying the dip won’t work. Think of all your favorite AI stocks down 50-75% from here over the next 12 months. That is all.
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We’re about to enter one of the worst economic disasters in the history of capitalism and we’re only 1.5% away from ATH on the S&P. I’m buying a bunch of put spreads expiring late 2027 to hedge the portfolio. There’s about 8 risks I see: 1) Bombing resumes in Iran post midterms 2) oil spikes because of the former 3) cpi remains elevated because of the former 4) interest rates remain higher for longer 5) AI layoffs accelerate 6) negative market flows due to unlocks from IPOs, etc 7) negative wealth effect from the index correcting >10% early 2027 causes cascade selling into mid year 8) AI capex slowing due to 1-7 causing larger fear of entrenched recession
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MACRO: I’m raising cash. Selling covered calls, buying low risk fixed income. I believe the next 18 months will be the most grueling and there isn’t much cushion in equities for it to make sense from a r/r perspective.
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$RKLB It will be hilarious to watch management deflect the fact that neutron is delayed by 1-2 years, won’t be ready for the pad until ‘28 / ‘29 at the minimum.
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$RKLB if neutron wasn’t delayed would Sir Peter Beck sell $450M of stock? Or would he sell a modest couple of million to live on until his wildest dreams become a reality? Something to think about 🤷‍♂️
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$RKLB Post-Iridium Acquisition: SELL Rating, probability weighted 1-years PT $40 🧵(1/) On June 29, Rocket Lab agreed to pay ~$8.0B for Iridium. That is 16x OEBITDA, half of it cash funded by a $3.6B 364-day bridge, for an ok-run narrowband satcom annuity whose best structural days are behind it. I spent the week pulling this apart and came out uncomfortable with both camps. I originally pushed back on the 'vintage 2010 tech' framing by pointing at the 2017-2019 launch dates. Then I pulled the program history and had to eat that one. The design froze at CDR in October 2013 on ~2011-era silicon, and the L-band air interface underneath is a ~1990 Motorola waveform preserved for backward compatibility. Calling it vintage 2010 was generous. What keeps this from being a kill shot is that the asset still throws off $296M of FCF against contracts (EMSS, GMDSS, Aireon) that Starlink cannot legally or technically service yet. However, 2028 is when the revenue decline accelerates when EMSS is up for renewal and competitors likely take a stake. The moat is coverage, spectrum, and certification rather than technology. The bulls have the bigger problem: 10.5 MHz of non-cellular L-band is an IoT and safety niche with a hard physics ceiling, not a direct-to-device option, and the constellation carrying it needs a $3-4 billion replacement starting right when the acquisition debt matures. My model cannot get within hailing distance of $90 under any multiple set I could defend in a room. Probability-weighted I get ~$41. What sits above that is narrative, and narrative plus leverage plus a visible dilution overhang has a bad track record.
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This’ll be the weirdest post you’ll see come out of my account - I’m buying Zcash Privacy matters in the age of AI It’s a set and forget crypto. I can see this pegging to Bitcoin anywhere 1-5% of market cap over the long run. Recommend everyone to read @robustus Zcash thoughts going all the way back to 2016.
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near.com/ near used to be an L1 when they started off. they're now an onchain exchange... everything you can do on coinbase/binance, you can do on near dot com. they just route to the best venue/product incredible product execution.
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if you're a developer: you should check out intents connect. you can let any app access assets on any network *without* doing all the wallet integration etc. your app is default multichain. surprised more people don't know about this intents.aurora.dev/intents-c…
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Zcash will finish what Bitcoin originally set out to do: peer-to-peer electronic cash, at planetary scale. Satoshi would have loved Zcash.
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I bought $1M worth of $CYPH
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Zcash will outperform every coin this cycle. I’m a value investor btw 😂
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$TE: The White House set minimum import prices of $21/kg for polysilicon, $100/kg for ingots/wafers, $0.22/W for cells, and—critically—$0.38/W for finished solar modules. It also imposes an additional 15% Section 232 tariff on polysilicon derivatives, effective 12/4/26. I asked ChatGPT what the potential impact would be for T1 Energy's G1_Dallas + G2_Austin Phase I EBITDA runrate guidance of $375M-450M: New guide: ~$525-$650M EBITDA (includes IP savings) Bull case: ~$700M EBITDA T1 Energy's realized revenue in Q2 was ~$250M / 835MW = $0.30/W
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$ASTS $SPCX: 🚨SPACEX OUTLINES PLANS TO TAKE ON AT&T, VERIZON, AND T-MOBILE - BLOOMBERG By Ed Ludlow, Sana Pashankar and Kelcee Griffis (Bloomberg) -- SpaceX fleshed out its plans to compete directly with the largest mobile phone carriers in the US by complementing its satellite-based internet service with land-based infrastructure. The three biggest operators — AT&T Inc., Verizon Communications Inc. and T-Mobile US Inc. — generate hundreds of billions of revenue per year, SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell said during the company’s debut earnings call. “I anticipate us being able to acquire quite a few of their customers, because I think our service will be better,” she said. “I’m quite excited about Starlink Mobile going forward.” Shares of AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile each fell more than 4% in post-market trading after Shotwell’s comments. SpaceX’s satellite internet business already beams data directly to mobile phones, shoring up service in dead zones for existing ground-based networks. While adding land-based components, such as cell towers, would better position Starlink to compete, doing so will be costly. Constructing and operating nationwide networks require billions of dollars in physical infrastructure, along with scarce government-regulated airwaves.“ We definitely intend to build out the terrestrial component,” Shotwell said. “So you will have not only the capacity from the satellites themselves, but you will have a build-out of the hardware and systems necessary to make a true mobile service.” SpaceX’s plans to lure customers away from longstanding operators will require launching a network of upgraded Starlink satellites, acquiring rights to more spectrum — the radio waves needed to beam coverage — and securing access to thousands of cell towers and small cell nodes. All of this could take years. One shortcut that’s likely unavailable to SpaceX is a network rental partnership, under which companies including Charter Communications Inc. and Comcast Corp. have become what’s known as mobile virtual network operators. The mobile carriers have said they would not give SpaceX access to their networks in an MVNO capacity. The companies have made other defensive moves, announcing a rare three-way joint venture that aims to make satellite capabilities more readily available to mobile phone customers. SpaceX notably was not part of that tie-up, unveiled in May. Still, SpaceX has shown a willingness to get creative. Bloomberg reported last month that SpaceX held talks with Charter about running some of its phone traffic through the largest home-internet provider’s ground-based infrastructure.
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BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 are now fully deployed to their full size, each the world's largest communications arrays operating in Low Earth Orbit. We invented a new way to design, manufacture at scale, deploy, and fly lightweight composite stackable architecture combined, with the world's largest and most advanced direct- to-device and radar phased-array with the ability to launch them in groups of 3, 5, 6, or 8 on a single launch. Our BlueBird platform brings together high-performance space-based cellular broadband with peak data rates approaching 200 Mbps, space AI edge computing, and many mission-critical government applications, all on one platform where the largest-ever size matters! BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 are already at the Cape preparing for their imminent launch. BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16 are right behind them. Production has already moved through satellite 42. All of this is happening in Texas. 🤠🇺🇸📶🌎📱
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