John Bryan

THE BRYAN ECONOMIC REPORT: AUGUST 18, 2025 TARIFFS: TOTALLY MISUNDERSTOOD; BUT PERHAPS JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED The press loves to bash everything Trump. Even the venerable Wall Street Journal has described the new tariffs negatively. Let me show you why tariffs are just what the doctor ordered. Tariffs Address the Number One Economic Problem in America – The annual $1.9 Trillion National Deficit: The new tariffs are a great new source of government revenue. By generating an estimated $1 trillion a year over 10 years, they dramatically reduce the amount government needs to borrow to cover today’s outrageous $1.9 trillion annual national deficit. If tariffs raise approximately $1 trillion a year, let's increase Musk's spending cuts to $1 trillion a year, and, voila’, you're close to a budget surplus! Reducing government borrowing to zero would put tremendous downward pressure on interest rates, which is beneficial for the entire broader economy. Tariffs are Targeted "Tax Increases": Unlike increases in personal income tax, that rightly remain anathema, tariffs are a consumption tax only on imported goods. The burden is not felt evenly across the population because they only apply to imported products which are generally higher value. The wealthiest 10% of the population, with a larger appetite for high-end imported goods, are overwhelmingly the largest part of consumer spending. They pay over 75% of the tariffs. Their spending is far less elastic than the population as a whole so they can absorb the cost without altering their spending habits. Avoiding a Negative Demand Effect: Since tariffs are paid by the wealthiest consumers, we avoid the negative demand-side consequences that other forms of tax increases cause. The government can raise revenue, reduce borrowing without reducing the purchasing power of the average American. THE US ECONOMY IN Q1 AND Q2 -- COMPELLING EVIDENCE Estimated Real US GDP growth in Q2 was up approximately 3.0%. Before you celebrate, this number is riding a “Tariff Roller Coaster” right now. The reason is simple math: As businesses navigated the new Trump geopolitical landscape, in Q1, the fear of huge tariffs was followed by sighs of relief when Trump backed down. This cycle of “fear and relief” created a visible roller coaster in the economic data that lasted for over six months. Here's why. Over many decades, large businesses learned to ‘game’ the tariff system. Before new tariffs go into effect, they purchased huge amounts of imported inventory tariff-free to save money in the quarters ahead. Your ‘viewing portal’ to watch the game is the monthly ‘Trade Deficit’ Report that shows everything Imports and Exports. The dramatic swings in the Trade Deficit reveal the industrial ‘gamers’ at play. When imported inventory purchases skyrocket, the trade deficit increases, and Real GDP Growth ‘artificially’ declines because the inventory wasn’t sold. The revenues will be realized over the next few quarters. Sales didn’t increase, inventory increased. The numbers for the first 6 months of 2025 tell the story: (ALL NUMBERS IN BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) MONTH TRADE DEFICIT NOTES January$131.40B A NEW RECORD February$122.70 IMPORTS SKYROCKETED March $140.50 IMPORTS ROSE $17.8B April $61.60 IMPORTS DOWN 56% May $71.50 MORE RELIEF June $60.20 IMPORTS WAY DOWN The gaming effect shown above peaks in Q1 when the Trade Deficit subtracted a whopping 4.6% from Real GDP Growth. In Q2, the ‘game’ slowed down, Real GDP Growth increased 2% and Q3 will see further normalization of these numbers. TARIFFS AND CONSUMER SENTIMENT Since Real GDP Growth is so erratic, we’re forced to consider other indicators to get an accurate picture of the economy. Consumer Sentiment offers another view, though the Q1 and Q2 numbers are similarly complex. Incessant doom and gloom press reports in Q1 and Q2 about tariffs being the ‘end of the world’ certainly impacted consumer sentiment. The numbers have stabilized near a historic low. Consumers are understandably confused about a) the relationship between tariffs and prices, b) who bears the cost of these tariffs, and c) how can a tax increase cause inflation. We cleared up A and B, but C remains a mystery. State sales Taxes are included in the inflation data, but changes are infrequent. This new ‘consumption tax’ is brand new and therefore the first year effect on inflation is much higher. All this confusion combined with exaggerated media reports means negative sentiment is overblown. In less than 6 months, the new tariffs increased government revenue by over $200 billion, and remember, the wealthiest 10% paid over 75%. The average consumer is beginning to recognize that tariffs impact them far less than expected. The most recent data shows a subtle but significant shift: fewer consumers now view the economy as "bad," even though the number of those who see conditions as "good" has remained unchanged. Yet there’s plenty of room for concern. Economic output and consumer spending were down in the first 2 quarters. Despite these declines, the Fed has kept interest rates steady, citing inflation and the labor market. But even the perennially strong Labor Market has the jitters. Job growth declined this summer to just 73,000 jobs in July and the previous two months were adjusted down. Job growth in May, June, and July was the worst since 2010, (excluding the pandemic). On the positive side, the stock market hit new records on strong corporate profits. THE SLOWDOWN IS REAL: Last week the Commerce Department published “Final Sales to Consumers and Businesses.”. The Fed is closely watching this indicator because it carves out erratic government spending, erratic inventories, and international trade. Growth of Final Sales fell to 1.2%; that is the lowest since Q4 of 2022. There's more bad news when you look at the April to July hiring numbers. Payrolls dropped in mining, logging, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and retail trade, which covers over 35 million workers. Hiring also slowed significantly in leisure and hospitality due to foreign tourism and cautious U.S. consumers. The only payroll gains were in the healthcare sector. MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 18, 2025 Markets have been very quiet since no new economic data has been released. The NASDAQ was up 0.03% and the S&P 500 was virtually unchanged. The Dow was down slightly, 0.1% lower, but it is very close to an all-time high. In Europe, the FTSE 100 was up 0.21%, the DAX was down 0.18%, the CAC was also down 0.5%. In Asia, the Nikkei was up 0.77% and the Hang Seng was down 0.37%. Treasury yields were virtually changed today. All eyes are on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Both the 10-year and the 2-year yields closed at 4.337% and 3.767% respectively, also virtually unchanged. Oil prices are below $65 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate was up 0.8% to $63.34 a barrel. Futures prices of gasoline were up over 1% to $2.10 per gallon. IMPORTANT NOTE: Whenever I write economic reports, I always ask myself, “What would Al want to see.” This Next section is for Al Carruth… I think he wants to see the math that relates Trade Deficits and Real GDP Growth… The formula for calculating GDP is: GDP = C + I + G + (X - M) C = Consumer spending I = Business investment G = Government spending X = Exports M = Imports Focusing on (X - M), AKA net export or the trade balance. When I say that US businesses "game the tariff system" and buy massive amounts of imported inventory, they are causing the "M" (imports) number to dramatically increase. This increase in M directly subtracts from the GDP calculation, causing Real GDP Growth to "artificially" decline because the inventory has been purchased but not yet sold, so there is no corresponding increase in "C" (Consumer Spending) to balance it out. The revenues from those sales are realized in future months, which is why the GDP numbers "normalize" in subsequent quarters. @realDonaldTrump @DonaldJTrumpJr @EricTrump @alcarruth @WSJ @WSJbusiness @FT @FortuneMagazine @latimes @DailyMail @RichardKay @BW @barronsonline @nytimes @washingtonpost