Mostly personal investing. Fan of total returns - after fees, taxes, inflation, and stupid behavior. Especially stupid behavior.
SoCal
Joined April 2020
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Good Breakdown of $SCHD vs $VOO.
If you are so very attached to $SCHD dividend style investing, I think $DIVB might be a better option. I does have a dividend (lower though), but because it also focuses on buybacks, it ends up having better returns (on par with total market).
$VOO and $SCHD differ in holdings, sector weights, and factor tilts. But both are U.S. stock funds exposed to broad market risk.
Whether combining them adds diversification depends on allocation size, covariance, taxes, and your goals, rather than a single overlap percentage.
Read my full breakdown here: summitward.com/learn/voo-sch…
Latest Vanguard VCMM 10 year forecast:
Highest expected nominal return asset classes:
1. US Value: 8.2%
2. Emerging markets bonds: 6.9%
3. US Long Treasuries: 6.7%
But inflation expectation is 2.0% 🤨
Alex retweeted
Churchill could have shortened WW2 by years if he had just “done a deal” with Hitler. George Washington could have done a deal to end the American Revolution. Zelenskyy is in good company.
"Indices are like college football conferences. The name means nothing. You have to go line by line and see what is in there"
Good discussion on index funds and their issues
youtube.com/watch?v=CYOsY95U…
This TIPS critique is uneven. Some of it is pure nitpicking. But the point about hyperinflation and sovereign risk is good. Just add a dash of commodities/gold to your diversified portfolio (do own equity - see $TUR as an example of how it helps)
I don't think Jake is harsh enough about long-term TIPS. Some people say the 3% real yield on 30 year TIPS is a “guaranteed” high return. This understates the risks:
1) Inflation is personal, not national. TIPS track CPI, not your spending. And in a taxable account you pay tax on the inflation adjustment every year before you get the cash. At 4% inflation and a 24% bracket, that 3% real becomes about 1.3%.
2) The irony of TIPS is they’re the bond most likely to get stiffed in a very high inflation. Rising inflation raises the government’s interest bill when it can least afford it. Argentina didn’t default on its inflation-linked bonds. It just understated inflation for years. Same result. TIPS are supposed to protect you from inflation, but in a high inflation the government has every incentive to make sure they don’t.
3) TIPS lag. They’re indexed to CPI from about three months ago, and the inflation adjustment gets added to principal you don’t receive until maturity. So in a high inflation, when you need the cash most, they aren’t even keeping up in real time.
TIPS are a useful shorter duration matching tool, one of the best. They’re just not a guarantee, certainly not in the long-run. And for most people matching long duration assets to long duration liabilities, equities are usually the better option, in large part because the return premium comes from the lack of a guarantee.
Stocks are hard.
This June Bill Gross said he is buying $CBP for value and dividend. Morningstar at the same said it’s a great buy and undervalued.
Three month later they cut dividend by a third and the stock is down more.
A bonus track of investment recommendations added to my recent FT op-ed. Be careful of casino-like behavior, capitalism eats its own. I’m buying low/medium P/E stocks with dividends 4% and higher: CPB, UPS, VZ, MUC.
williamhgross.com/under-thre…
Two weeks passed and TIPS yields are even higher - they are all at >99% across the board for the last quarter century. You are are really getting paid now for owning them (do it in a tax deferred accounts). But will they go even higher?
This looks great indeed
Incredible new investment tool via @ckaiwu
ETF screener
Fund comparisons
Compare a fund to its own history
and my favorite...analyze a random fund!
RIP to dozens of websites
app.sparklinecapital.com/
Five fuckyous from Mark Cuban on the California Democrat wealth tax bullshit.
And if you think upcoming CA Prop 40 is about billionaires, think again. It is really about introducing wealth tax. For everyone. Ro Khanna already talks about $50M limit. CA never has enough taxes.
Ro, “in your scenario, the founder could sell to pay a one time 5 percent tax or the state could sell it if he defaults on the loan”
Ro, this is the biggest fuck you in the history of entrepreneurship. Ever.
Creating jobs but don’t have cash. Fuck you
Can’t sell shares, we will sell it for you, to whoever. Fuck you.
Creating jobs. Paying great wages instead of taking cash out yourself. Fuck you
Reinvesting into your company and community. Fuck You.
Don’t you know that Jensen, and Lisa Su, and people who have vast amounts of liquidity already have no problem with it. Fuck You
There is a huge difference between someone with liquidity , running a huge public company, and someone who has dedicated every minute of who knows how many years, to building a company, to finally have a dream financing come true , only to be insulted by a politician. “We will sell your shares for you “
GTFO
Alex retweeted
For decades, Sweden was known for its inclusive welfare state and its strong voice on human rights.
But recently, the country has come to resemble something very different: an ultra-capitalist haven, with an increasingly tough approach on immigration.
I explained what changed:
