Economic historian. Tech at work, war, and everything in between. Occasionally in the NYT, The Atlantic, etc. Always on my newsletter 👇🏻

New York, USA
Joined July 2015
Human-in-the-loop is now human-in-the-way.
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We'd better squeeze every bit of upside we can from AI, because we're going to pay for it either way.
Purdue University's IDEAS Lab built an autonomous drone that tracks runners through dense forests completely without GPS or cloud networks. By running 3D LiDAR mapping and obstacle-avoidance AI entirely on-chip, it can weave under tree canopies and predict target movement through blind spots in real time. Massive implications for next-gen search & rescue and edge AI.
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Whoa. Microsoft is offering 60,000 people the chance to leave now instead of getting fired later. That's more than 25% of its total workforce. "This offer gives eligible employees who may be considering a future outside the company a new choice to make that transition now..."
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"As the dirtiest and most dangerous jobs get automated, economic activity will start to migrate to those places because the land is cheap and you don't need to pay for people" — @ByrneHobart thediff.co/archive/robots-ar…
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These are very meaningful jumps. And transformative technology is not supposed to lift everyone equally. The phonograph did not make all singers stars. But it made singing much more productive as a whole.
AI productivity gains are showing up, but only in ~15% of jobs. The three heaviest AI adopters (information, professional services, finance) went from a 2.2% productivity trend to 5.0% since 2022. The rest of the economy: 0.9% to 1.4%.
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Worrying about high-impact, low-probability events is rational in an interconnected world. The actual impact is only known in retrospect, and it pays to be wrong more often than not.
Dario Amodei was so worried about Y2K that his high school teacher still remembers it decades later. He’s been a doomer for much longer than I thought!
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Big Tech's revenue per worker is soaring while everyone else's stays flat.
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Netanyahu's final election pitch: Vote for me and things will get even worse!
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Ok...
Warhound, a defense‑tech startup founded by Palmer Luckey and Ben Lamm, has raised $200 million in seed funding to genetically engineer war dogs for the U.S. military. Lamm is responsible for the de-extinction of the dire wolf which died out ~10,000 years ago. Warhound will find top dogs and then biobank their genetic material before cloning the proven dogs. The company will take the cell lines for top breeds like Belgian Malinois and German Shepherd before editing the genes to make the dogs perform better and improve “things like speed and agility or enhance olfactory sensors for bomb sniffing and whatnot.” Luckey’s Anduril will supply the dogs with advanced body armor, ear coverings, and other military technology like EagleEye, an artificial intelligence military helmet. Anduril is also reportedly working with META on battlefield augmented reality eyewear. Lamm says the genetically modified dogs with advanced equipment will not only make the dogs safer, but will also make the human handlers safer. The first Warhound puppies will reportedly soon be cloned and incubated and will be born in early 2027 and then will begin training.
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Still unfolding.
Sanctions (and ensuing inflation) are as likely to cause a regime change in the West as they are in Russia. And elections in Europe and the US are happening sooner… sad but true.
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Fun fact: In 1980, the U.S. prepared to use tactical nukes to secure the Straight of Hormuz from a Soviet invasion.
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This isn't just about art; it's about most human work: More of our "work" will consist of performing tasks, even though these tasks can be "streamed" from a server.
Replying to @JosephPolitano
Can the arts business model survive AI? Perhaps the best guide is to look at how the arts survived past tech revolutions Take music—internet piracy and then streaming killed the lucrative CD market, but musicians mostly saved their jobs by focusing much more on live concerts
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No land? We'll send our chips to space. No labor? We'll pre-build the data center and ship it with walls and wiring.
AI factory deployment at a prepared site: from six months down to 14 days. NVIDIA DSX POD brings Vera Rubin AI factories in containers, integrated and validated before delivery. Announced at GTC Berlin: nvda.ws/4slQvNp
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Didn't take long. "Anthropic and OpenAI can build a trillion-dollar business around cyber and general defense, even if they don’t capture any other market."
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2020: Offline lockdown 2026: Online lockdown
Vulnerabilities in a programming language that supports much of the internet are so severe that European and British authorities recommend websites temporarily go offline until they can be fixed. nbcnews.com/tech/security/cr…
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The future is offline.
Effective Immediately, all organizations using PHP for their systems are advised to be prepared for an update addressing two critical vulnerabilities. PHP is widely used for web applications. These vulnerabilities often provide a direct path to the server's file system or database. If an immediate update is not feasible, it is recommend that organizations take the system offline until it can be fully mitigated. NSA will follow up shortly with more specific guidance.
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Is this UBI?
Trump Accounts may soon be expanded to include any American citizen under 40 with a Social Security Number. So if you are under 40, you may be eligible for the SpaceX shares Elon will start to donate next year. If you are over 40, I'm afraid you get bupkis.
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Dror Poleg retweeted
"The Bull Case for Anthropic and OpenAI" buff.ly/zJUGnhG @drorpoleg
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