Independent Writer. Economist. Data Analyst. Writes data stories around economy, policy and business at @Mint #MintPlainFacts [email protected]

Joined May 2021
most fascinating!
Brilliantly made video explaining the art of chitra-kavya, the art of solving fascinating optimization problems using letters! Super happy to see my open-source TTS, Vāgdhenu (prathosh.in/vagdhenu/), being used in such magnificent ways. Thanks for creating this, @udbhava.
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Very interesting analysis!
SIP investors in India sit through monthly Nifty falls of up to 3% and start quitting beyond that - Kotak analysis
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Deepa Vasudevan retweeted
"The beauty parade got tougher. We need to become even more attractive to foreign capital" @neelkanthmishra tells @_prashantnair that simpler tax laws, greater regulatory clarity & faster decision-making will matter far more. #Nifty #BankNifty #Trump #Iran
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What to make of IMF's October assessment of world growth? It is concentrated in a few nations, and AI is the key growth differentiator between them. How India can hold on to its growth resilience in this world- my piece in Mint today
#MintPlainFacts | The world economy may have remained resilient in 2026, but volatility and unpredictability are far from over, and their impact could weigh on India’s growth trajectory as well. Read more: livemint.com/economy/global-… Trust our hard work, subscribe to #MintPremium: livemint.com/premium (@dvasusg writes)
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Long story, but lucid explanation!
One thing the RBI did on Friday was to tell banks: You need to keep 99% of your CRR requirements at all times. A quick decode. If a bank has Rs. 100 of deposits, it needs to keep about 3% of it with the RBI as zero interest earning cash. That's the CRR. Every bank has an account with the RBI (like you have a savings account with your bank - your bank has an account with the RBI). That account should have this CRR every day. It's like a minimum balance. A CRR is calculated on deposits that were, roughly, 15 days ago, and RBI says listen, just keep 3% of that number interest free for the next fortnight. If a bank has a lot of money in their RBI account, they will take the "excess" (whatever's beyond CRR limits) and give it to the RBI as reverse repo, or SDF - basically like a very short term fixed deposit on which they earn interest. But banks often see cash move around. You do UPI at midnight, and some money moves from your bank's account with the RBI to some other bank's account with the RBI. Your bank is like hello, I had this money and this uncle did UPI so i'm now short of money? Now RBI knows this, so they say fine, listen, we will ask you that your AVERAGE balance over a fortnight should be 3%. But that doesn't mean you keep ZERO today and 6% tomorrow - that is a little too much. So banks get only a little headroom. They need a minimum of 90% of the CRR in their account every single day, and whatever they do, they should ensure the balances average to the full CRR averaged over the fortnight. That leeway of 10% allows a few of these midnight UPI uncles without CRR violations. Now that I've confused you enough, here's more: What the RBI has done is that they've changed the 90% to 99%. Banks, therefore, can't ever see less than 99% of their CRR needs in RBI at any time. Currently, as the screenshot shows, banks have about 96% parked as CRR (784K cr versus the requirement of 817K cr). Starting friday, they need to bump this up to 99%. What does this do? Banks will probably keep more than 100% all the time because who knows which UPI uncle will transfer how much at midnight, boss. So banks earn interest on lesser money (CRR earns no interest for them) Why has RBI done this? To reduce the overall liquidity in the system - banks are FLUSH with deposits after the FCNR scheme, and RBI is keen to ensure this doesn't cause the system to go overboard on lending. It controls the bank lending growth a little. It will take out about 30,000 cr. in liquidity out of the system, and is likely to be a temporary measure while banks slowly grow into the liquidity overload. The impact is lower interest revenue for banks (marginally), but otherwise the measure should not meaningfully impact anything you and I see in daily life. Long story for what isn't a big deal, I know, but I'm like that.
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The decline in household consumer confidence is worrying, especially as it is driven by negative sentiment about general economic conditions and employment. India - with nearly a billion people of working age- is concerned about jobs. Rightly so. My piece in @91basispoints
India’s economy grew 7.7% in 2025-26 and 7.8% year-on-year in April-June of 2026-27. Yet household sentiment tells a more complicated story. #RBI consumer surveys show that the gap between reported growth and how households experience the economy appears to be driven less by inflation than by concerns over jobs and the broader economic environment. The central bank’s current situation index has broadly tracked major turns in real #GDP growth over the past decade. More recently, both urban and rural indices have weakened since January 2026. The deterioration is most visible in perceptions of employment and the general economic situation. By July, roughly half of urban respondents and 38% of rural respondents felt the employment situation had worsened. Rural households also reported greater pressure on incomes, while urban spending remained relatively stable. The surveys do not replace official GDP data. But they offer a useful window into why strong headline growth may not always translate into stronger household confidence. @dvasusg Deepa Vasudevan examines what RBI’s consumer surveys reveal about India’s growth disconnect. Read: What Household Surveys Reveal About India’s Growth Disconnect basispointinsight.com/Story/… #India #GDP #Economy #Employment #RBI #ConsumerConfidence
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Very interesting!
Ratings largely determine spreads. Yet, their construction remains largely a black box. Our paper assesses the relative importance of debt, deficits and country specific effects in the determination of these ratings. The evidence is at odds with a simple model of default: more importance of debt, less importance of forecast deficits, limited role of r-g, surprisingly large role of country effects. We are agnostic. The model may be too simple in some fundamental ways. Or the rating agencies may be using incorrect weights. Or a mix of the two... We hope the paper triggers a useful discussion.
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Fiscal prudence is not a choice, but a necessity. India cannot be complacent about its 80% debt to GDP and low foreign debt- it has to keep working to consolidate fiscally. I explain in Mint today. @TantriPrasanna thanks for piquing my interest in this!
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US yields hit 5%; crude oil touches 108, and uncertainty indices high. This is not good news for monetary policy. We now wait for signals from the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan.
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Deepa Vasudevan retweeted
Terms of Trade: Our public discourse today works on what is best described by paraphrasing Keynes: in the short run, we are all trolls, even inadvertently, and in the long run, we are all dead. hindustantimes.com/editors-p…
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