Jared Bernstein retweeted
And the kicker puts this in historical context.
Relative to pre-COVID:
Sentiment at the 0th percentile. That is a combo of current conditions (0th percentile) and expectations (1st percentile).
Inflation expectations are at the 80th-88th percentile.
xitter.cf/econvitals/status/2113…
If D's win one or both chambers in the midterms, they must immediately get to work on blocking Trumpian corruption, restoring the rule of law, and calling travelling in the NBA.
It's a prices up, real-wages down CPI report. In fact, here's the real hourly wage for pvt-sector workers since Trump took office. It's back to where it started. Working families are getting squeezed on both sides (wg, price) of the affordability crunch.
econjared.substack.com/p/is-…
The first one was first but then random order. Two Jimi's because the first exploded my mind and the 2nd ensured it remained that way. When I was 9, my mother made me go hear the Mozart flute/harp concerto. I pretended to hate it but it too was life-altering, so...thanks Mom.
Surprising finding, amiright? This is Morning Consult econ sentiment by social media usage, from GS: "on the less intuitive side, we find that sentiment is higher among social media users." The note the pattern is robust after controlling for age effects.
Elaborating on the wage analysis I offered earlier. In fig below, I simulate CPI w no war & plot yr/yr changes of that, nom wg, and actual CPI. As you see, real wages would be growing absent war--less so, but still up.
Here's yr/yr real wage growth by month, actual and without war.
(Note: I used Cleveland Fed CPI fcast for Sept)
Wage growth continues to slow: a clear, negative trend. The 3% growth rate in Sep is below Cleveland Fed 3.6% Sep CPI forecast, meaning the sixth month in a row of real wage losses. This is a) a function of war inflation, and b) exacerbating the affordability crunch.
Here’s Ryan C @weakinstrument and my explanation for why we think our AI-looks-bubbly call remains intact (with methods section on how we got there). We drill down on the spend vs revenues gap, which is…vast.
econjared.substack.com/p/ai-…
An analogy: there’s an arsonist burning down homes. The police recommend checking your fire extinguisher.
Trump admin: you want lower diesel prices? End the damn war!
econjared.substack.com/p/shu…
I think r* has probably gone up, at least over the medium term.
econjared.substack.com/p/r
These two things are closely connected, right? 1) Spiking gas price (diesel highest on record; "cars run on gas; economies run on diesel") and this "don't look there; look here!" breaking news (NYT):
Given the alphabetical seating arrangement at the Fed press conference, I looking forward to enjoying the "All Street Journal" and "Anew York Times."
Right before Trump's war-of-choice, the 30 yr fixed-rate mortgage was 5.99%. Today, it topped 7%. For the median-priced home w 20% down payment, that's an extra $2,900/yr in mortgage payments. Of course, no one's refinancing.
It's just latest eg of Trump's UNaffordability agenda.
The White House Budget Office (kinda) released the Mid-Session Review today. It's the barest bones MSR ever, w almost no budget numbers, no deficit accounting (revs - spending) and, for the 1st time in history, I believe, no economic forecast.
whitehouse.gov/wp-content/up…
I get it. This complaint is a bit like the old line: "The food here's terrible! And the portions are so small!" Their numbers/fcast would have surely been unreliable. We know Bessent''s big deficit reduction plan is to "grow our way out of it!" Which is pure hand waving.
A stronger-than-expected jobs report w positive payroll revisions, unemp steady at 4.1%, tick up in LFPR. But none of that is reflected in nominal wage growth, which is lowest since pandemic and lagging inflation for (probably) five months running (don't have Aug CPI yet).
In this Politico article on diesel prices at their highest on record, VP Vance says ridiculous things:
'He...claimed that gas prices “could have been much much higher were it not for our efforts...I can’t repeat this enough, but for the leadership of President Trump...
...and the hard work of our troops, we would have had an energy crisis because the Iranians refused to stop acting like terrorists in the Strait of Hormuz,” Vance said.'
Ok, not breaking news that he's spinning. But what struck me was how disrespectful that is to regular folks...
...trying to get by. He must think we're all absolute idiots.
politico.com/news/2026/09/03…
