Ethan Johnson (@ejwj2001) header
Ethan Johnson (@ejwj2001) profile picture

Political Theory, International Relations, and History

Washington, DC
Joined December 2017
Photo by Ethan Johnson (@ejwj2001)Photo by Ethan Johnson (@ejwj2001)Photo by Ethan Johnson (@ejwj2001)
Replying to @ArmandDoma
It’s not an accident that the people who tend to anthropomorphize AI are the often the same people who technomorphize humans. If you think a person is just a machine, of course you’ll think AI is conscious….
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Replying to @TheStalwart
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Gates: “In the span of forty-five years…I can recall only three instances in which, in my opinion, a president risked…the judgement of history on a single decision…” [Duty, p.48]
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60 Minutes asks President Trump about his family’s crypto company, World Liberty Financial. cbsn.ws/4zeXVUx
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Scott Colom told reporters yesterday that his favorite book is Anna Karenina by Tolstoy. He also enjoys War and Peace, the Robert Caro books and Things Fall Apart. Probably his worst take is he doesn’t enjoy James Baldwin’s novels, but everyone’s allowed a few bad opinions.
I had a great time stopping by two Jackson staples: Offbeat, a cool local record shop, and Marshall’s Music & Bookstore, the oldest Black-owned bookstore in the country. Of course I left with a new record for my wife and picked up a book for my daughters. Small businesses are a source of pride in our communities and a big part of what makes Mississippi special. In the U.S. Senate, I’ll work to make sure our entrepreneurs and small business owners have the support and resources they need to keep our local economies thriving.
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The blame game is in full swing in Washington DC. A reminder: almost 20 years ago, George W. Bush fired Donald Rumsfeld, the architect of the Iraq War, one day (Nov 8, 2006) after heavy losses in the midterm elections. Yet, 3 months later Bush announced a troop surge in Iraq.
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The US decision to go to war with Iran will be seen by historians as both the strategically and politically worst war-starting choice in US history.
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Professional political operatives hear "swing voter" and think it means a guy who's socially liberal and fiscally conservative, when it's actually someone whose mental architecture starts from a completely idiosyncratic pet issue and branches out into non-Euclidean dimensions
🚨 BREAKING: Michigan Republican voter says she was going to vote for Mike Rogers until Haley Stevens endorsed him: “You use the Black church to try and convince me that Rogers is the right one? Oh no, no.”
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“America always does the right thing…after exhausting all other options” - Winston Churchill
To all of the people I pleaded with in Europe and Asia over the last two years do not write off America yet, I told you so. I know , we have a long ways to go. Trump is president for 2 years. But the Trump era is winding down. The possibility of American renewal is swelling.
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NEW: CNN calls dismal GOP midterm performance “the collapse of the Republican Party.”
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“If we can predict the [protein's] shape, we can design a drug that recognizes the harmful form and leaves the healthy one alone.” A Hopkins-led team backed by up to $52M from @ARPA_H will build an AI model to decode how proteins misfold in Parkinson’s, cancer, and other diseases. bit.ly/4zMyCdb
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This is one of the most important pieces of social science on human and AI interaction that I’ve seen in some time. Experts follow agentic advice the vast majority of the time (causally), but only a tiny fraction credit the agent—majority think they came to decision on their own volition. Reminds me of the classic Nisbett and Wilson study on people following outside influence without realizing it “ But as more work is handed to AI—including AI safety research—these judgment calls are the main levers for people's own values to influence outcomes. If people defer to AI without noticing, then "human in the loop" might provide less assurance than people expect.”
New Anthropic research: How AI agents shape experts' judgment calls When experts delegate work to an agent, do they still make the key decisions? We tested this in a randomized trial with 50 professional data analysts.
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We will wish we had listened to these warnings before the massive attack that is coming. To summarize: all code has bugs, continuous attacks by thousand of AI agents guarantees that they WILL eventually find their way into any website/database/system. So we need a new way of thinking about defense.
The cyber tsunami isn't a future prediction. It's here already. As I’ve said before, all code is buggy. And recent events continue to prove this, at scale  The exposure we just witnessed from vulnerabilities in the PHP engine made evident the buggy truth far faster than anyone in the industry expected. PHP powers 70% of the web. For years, deep engine vulnerabilities inside platforms like Zend were known, but widely ignored because the industry assumed they were too complex for human attackers to weaponize. AI just flipped that assumption on its head. By drastically lowering the cost and time required to find exploits, AI models discovered attack paths that human developers couldn't easily see or predict. Attackers are no longer just exploiting custom application code; they are cracking open the underlying platform engines that power millions of websites simultaneously. The waves are coming ashore.   AI creates "toxic combinations" by chaining together lower-priority bugs that seem harmless on their own. A Priority 3 bug today can easily become a Priority 0 crisis tomorrow when a smarter model finds a new way to connect the dots. In short: cyber attacks have moved beyond human comprehension. The hard truth for every CEO and Board member is that much of the legacy cybersecurity playbook was built for a human-comprehension era. Those tools and assumptions are now obsolete. You cannot patch your way out of a tsunami. When every piece of software is penetrable under continuous AI analysis, the strategy has to change. Prevention alone is no longer enough The ultimate metric is cyber resilience. You must assume breach, and preemptively plan to protect your core, critical operations, and ensure that your business can get back up and running the moment the water reaches you.  It is rising around us all.
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The FT really said "we deliver to America A ONLY"
Financial Times currently running a print special. $129 for the whole year. Get it while it’s hot. Unless you live in some backwater state where it is not delivered, then you’re outta luck.
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Truly wonderful weekend read, starting with the opening line newyorker.com/magazine/2026/…
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A finding from "Expert Political Judgment" (2005): an inverse relationship between fame and accuracy among geopolitical experts. But this one is over the top
ABD'li uluslararası ilişkiler teorisyeni George Friedman'a göre, 2051 yılında dünya. 1991 yılında George Friedman, SSCB'nin çöküşünün ardından ABD ve Japonya'nın başlıca ekonomik ve jeopolitik rakipler haline geleceğine inanarak “Japonya ile Yaklaşan Savaş” adlı kitabını kaleme aldı. Ardından 2009 yılında yayınlanan Friedman'ın “Önümüzdeki 100 Yıl” adlı kitabında, Çin'in gerileyeceği ve 2050'li yıllarda ABD ile Japonya-Türkiye ittifakı arasında bir savaş çıkacağı öngörüyor. Mavi ABD ve ittifakları, turuncu Türkiye ve etki alanı ve kırmızı da ittifakı Japonya'nın etki alanı.
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Not sure I’ve seen a more beautiful thread on the labor economics of AI.
🧵1/10 Given the recent reactions of mathematicians over rapid advances in AI, I think it is important to remember that technological change has historically been a very personal event for people. Over the history of technological progress, looms have fallen silent, switchboards have gone dark, and factory lines have shrunk bringing with them a human crisis of identity and what it means to be a master of one's craft.
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i used AI to reverse engineer the block blaster mobile app.
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Wow. I woke up to an impressive number of upset people who apparently don’t understand how LLMs work and can’t cope well with me pointing it out. An LLM is a statistical next-token prediction model. That’s how it works. It’s an extraordinarily sophisticated calculator performing math you could theoretically do by hand (if you were sufficiently masochistic). Math doesn’t know what it’s calculating. Pi doesn’t spend its evenings contemplating the nature of circles, and c doesn’t ponder the relationship between matter and energy. That doesn’t make the results any less accurate, impressive, or useful. Between inference requests, an LLM isn’t sitting around thinking. It isn’t reconsidering its answers, wondering whether it made a mistake, contemplating its existence, or questioning whether it’s conscious. Its weights remain fixed (it doesn’t learn), and computation resumes when it receives input. We know this because we designed these systems. The architectures, mathematics, implementations, and research are extensively documented. You can study them yourself. Of course, some people immediately lean into comparisons of biological intelligence or philosophical debates over consciousness because that is what they know. But biological intelligence and artificial neural networks are fundamentally different systems. Similar outputs don’t establish equivalent internal experiences. I experience consciousness directly. I infer that other humans do too because we share biological structures and processes. We don’t have equivalent evidence for an LLM, and nothing about its known operation gives evidence of conscious experience. Which brings me back to my original point. To me, understanding is conscious comprehension. It means being aware of information, recognizing its meaning, and experiencing that comprehension. If I wasn’t conscious I could not understand. We can perform actions unconsciously. We can produce correct results without knowing why they’re correct. But I distinguish those capabilities from consciously understanding what we’re doing. An LLM can solve complex problems, explain difficult concepts, and produce remarkably accurate information. I give it full credit for those capabilities. But producing an answer that we rationalize as understanding isn’t the same as experiencing understanding. You don’t have to agree with my definitions. We can debate functional understanding versus conscious comprehension all day, but that won’t establish whether an LLM actually experiences anything. The right debate is this… Could machines exhibit something different from human consciousness, something measurable, meaningful, and worth studying? I think so, absolutely! I’m entirely open to discussing “machine consciousness” in terms of observable, testable computational properties. We built these systems, we can instrument them, examine their internal mechanisms, and investigate what they’re capable of. That seems far more productive than endlessly arguing over whether a machine experiences life the way humans do. So here’s my question: How would you define machine consciousness, and more importantly, how would you measure it?
Not sure who needs to hear this but.... An LLM doesn't "understand" anything. It is a statistical model that spews out tokens based on probabilities calculated through massive matrix operations and context, not an understanding of the subject matter.
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If one assumes she was hired October 9 and that’s when the clock started ticking.
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This. from @DKThomp
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