Positioning farms for success. Experience, agronomy, market intelligence, interpretation, risk management & prudent financial analysis. Posts are my own.
Alberta, Canada
Joined March 2021
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StatCan 🇨🇦 reports Sept CND canola crush @ 1.228Mmts vs 1.007Mmts YoY 22% increase with a current crush trajectory est @ 14.8Mmts. YTD CGC Oct 18, exports @ 1.63Mmts vs 1.08Mmts YoY suggests a trajectory to 7.7Mmts. Interpretation? Direction? Plan? Strategy? Let’s talk
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🇦🇺 Oilseeds Federation (AOF) forecasts a record canola crop @ 8.59Mmts (665Kmt higher than 7.93Mt July) on 2nd highest seeded area (4.13Mha) & 3rd highest yield @ 2.08t/ha (37.1bpa) coupled with favourable growing conditions. Might consider a strategy. Let’s talk.
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China bought 15 Panamax cargos (+1Mmt) of Australia canola Oct 22, between $695 to $705 / mt FOB China. 🇨🇦 canola has an effective 14.9% tariff while
🇦🇺 9% in addition to its distinct freight advantage. 🇨🇦canola traded sideways since 09, clients advised long before trend broke
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Consider, CND 🇨🇦 MEGA equipment purchase deduction. Legislation soon to be passed (retroactive to Sept 15, ‘26) allowing the purchased price of certain equipment to be deducted year purchased versus gradual annual depreciation schedule. Got a plan? Need a strategy? Let’s talk.
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Imagine, consider, think about the value of growing / enhancing soil, while reducing equipment investment and cost 🤔😊
youtube.com/watch?v=oXB0G8l1…
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W CND harvest as of Oct 9, AB 77.7% completed vs 94% 5 yr av vs 79.9% 10 yr av.
SASK 82% vs 97% 5 yr av vs 88% 10 yr av Canola 72% @ 40 bpa, Flax 51% @ 26 bpa, HRSW 88% & 53bpa, durum 92% @ 45bpa, lentils 97% @ 25.5bpa
MAN 65% completed canola av 39.2 bpa
HRSW 52.4bpa.
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Sept WASDE reported durum @ 66Mbu 23% < from ‘25 @ 86Mbu. Total supply @ 145Mbu down from 162Mbu ‘25/‘’26. 14.9% P, grading #1 with > 400 sec falling # @ 60.1lbs/bu lower ‘25 @ 61.7lbs/bu. Quality moving forward could be valuable pending demand & El Niño impact. Strategy?
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EU Sept MARS report sees lower SBs & above 5 year average in other grain production. Canola estimated 7% above ‘25 but 1% below the 5 yr ave. Corn came in better than first estimated.
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AB 🇨🇦 harvest running behind @ 22.8%. Barley is the most advanced @ 40% with HRSW @ 20.8%. Canola @ 4.4%. Rains & cool temps holding harvest advancement back. With recent rains grades can be challenging. Outlook is for more favourable weather moving forward.
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Western 🇨🇦 grain harvest stalled by recent rains. AAFC released its crop production estimates. Sask harvest 32% completed vs 71% 5 yr ave. Canola 15%, HRSW 17%, Durum 46%,
Barley 47%,Oats 19%, Lentils 88%
Peas 84%. Quality is challenged. Marketing strategy? Let’s talk
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International Grains Council (IGC) reports all wheat production +/- 15Mmts lower @ 820Mmts vs 845Mmts YoY. Carry @ 278Mmts vs 285Mmts YoY. Firm wheat values attributed tighter supply coupled with logistical export bottlenecks (Black Sea region).
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30Kmt 🇨🇦 durum enroute from Arctic Gateway Group (AGG) Hudson Bay to EU. Durum supplied by AGT Foods, Sask., loaded this week, 1st of 3 shipments. Great news for 🇨🇦durum, AGG & AGT. The 🇨🇦 deep water arctic port is linked by rail. Now a bit of help on durum origination pricing 😆
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USDA, NASA & gov to improve acreage & yield estimates. Connecting 🛰️ imagery, AI &
machine learning to drive crop monitoring via cloud. Initiative to
expand farmer trust, transparency & protect privacy by defining why the data is needed & used with provisions for feed back.
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Australian 🇦🇺ABARES 9 1 ‘26 report crop production estimates: Wheat @ 29.9Mmts, canola 7.3Mmts, barely 16.4Mmts, peas 236Kmts, lentils 2.25Mmts. Interpretation, meaning, strategy, plan, success. Let’s talk.
exceedgrainmarketing.com
StatCan confirms canola highest value CND crop. Total farm receipts @ $51.8B (Q 1&2 of ‘26. >2.1B (4.2%) YoY. Crop share > to $27B Canola
sales > $1.3B with marketings >15.6% & 4.6% > prices. Exports & crush (bioenergy feedstock demand). Cattle & calves were most profitable
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EU MARS Aug reports winter wheat & durum in line with 5yr ave. Rapeseed <4% 5yr ave (<2% lower MoM). Corn took the big hit @ <7% 5yr ave (<5% MoM on extreme heat). Challenging but not exactly end of the world 🌎
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US cold storage, red meats 2% higher YoY, pork > 9%, beef <4% due to tight numbers & strong demand. Market elasticity sort prices without centrally planned adjustments. High prices
move consumers to alternatives. Decrees & supply manipulations tend to be communist initiatives.
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StatCan reports CND cattle inventory @ 12.1Mhd (7 1 ‘26)
> 3.6% YoY. Validates CND herd expansion, largest since 2024. Biggest gains in AB. CND beef breeding heifers (+5.7%), beef cows (+1.9%)
feeder heifers (+3.8%), steers (+3.4%) calves grew 4.6% to 3.9Mhd. Strategy?
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El Niño forecast 90% very strong event fall ‘26 into ‘27. Pacific H2O temp +3 / +4 C > norm. Effect on N America & W 🇨🇦 grains? Weather volatility, interpretation, plan, strategy, execution = success. Opportunity for HRSW & pulses. exceedgrainmarketing.com Lets talk.
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