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Who's actually good in college hockey? We built a model to answer it.
The Five Hole Index ranks every D1 team weekly. Bracketology plays out the season 2,000 times. Every game gets a preview, score sheet, and a recap.
All in our Discord, and free for life for the first 25 who give real feedback.
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Five Hole Depth Score · post Thu ~3 PM ET — X text below 📷 Five Hole Depth Score: how much of a team's scoring comes from outside its top 3 goal scorers Deepest: Lindenwood, 67% (17 different goal scorers) Most top-heavy: Colgate, 30% (Nagel 5, Ohman 5, Schneider 4 of 20 goals) Who can win when the top line is shut down? @USCHO @collegehockey @LULionsHockey @ColgateMIH @BadgerMHockey #NCAAHockey
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📷 Who wins the close ones? Augustana is 7-0-3 and hasn't lost a one-goal game: 5-0, plus three overtime wins and three ties. Merrimack (3-0) and Bentley (2-0) are perfect too. Bentley puts that on the line tonight at Air Force. @augiemhockey @Merrimack_MIH @BentleyHockey @AF_HKY #NCAAHockey
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🏒 Big Ten opener for No. 4 Michigan State in South Bend tonight.
Watch the special teams. Michigan State’s power play is scoring on 38.5% of its chances (10 of 26). Notre Dame’s penalty kill is stopping only 65.0% (26 of 40).
Notre Dame does come in hot after sweeping at Penn State.
My pick: Michigan State, 75.4%.
@msu_hockey @NDHockey @B1GHockey
#NCAAHockey
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Five Hole Steals · post Thu ~1 PM ET — X text below 📷 Five Hole Steals: wins a goalie took by himself, saving more goals than the winning margin Most this season: Carl Axelsson, Minnesota Duluth (2) Biggest this week: Charlie Schenkel, Robert Morris, 42 saves at Long Island @USCHO @collegehockey @UMDMensHockey @RMUMHockey #NCAAHockey
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🕒 Who owns the third period in the ECAC?
Clarkson. The Golden Knights are -3 in first periods but +8 in third periods, the best in the league. Union is next at +6.
Dartmouth and Quinnipiac are tied at +5, and they meet Friday night.
@ecachockey @ClarksonMHockey @UnionmHockey @Dartmouth_MIH @QU_MIH
#NCAAHockey
Who's creating chances? Boston College creates more than anyone in D1: 3.88 expected goals a game (what their chances are usually worth). They've scored only 25 goals in 9 games. Wisconsin gives up the fewest chances: 1.64 expected goals against a game. @USCHO @BC_MHockey @BadgerMHockey #NCAAHockey
📷 Canisius report card Canisius outshot Sacred Heart 64-41 last weekend and still got swept, 3-2 and 5-2. The difference was in net: Canisius stopped just .825 of the shots it faced (save percentage). FJ Buteau leads the Golden Griffins with 8 points (2 goals, 6 assists). Next: Saturday at RIT. My pick: RIT, but it's close to a coin flip. @GriffsHockey @sacredheartmih @RITMHKY #NCAAHockey
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📷 Five Hole Game of the Week Colorado College at Western Michigan · Fri., Nov. 13 · 7:00 PM ET Western Michigan is No. 1 in the Five Hole Index and scores 4.78 goals a game, 2nd in D1. Colorado College gives up just 1.50 a game, 3rd in D1, with Jackson Unger at .948 and a 93.5% penalty kill. Best offense against one of the best defenses. Western Michigan won both meetings at home last March, 5-2 and 2-1 in overtime. My pick: Western Michigan. @TheNCHC @CCTigerHKY @WMUHockey #NCAAHockey
🧭 Five Hole Position Score: the Independents
Every player is graded against D1 players at his own position. It's 0-100, and 50 is average.
Lindenwood's Michael Bevilacqua leads all independents at 86, the best mark on the card. Long Island's Sixten Jennersjö has been in on 48% of LIU's goals (3 goals, 10 assists).
Lindenwood has 4 of the 7 skaters on the card.
@LULionsHockey @LIUMHockey @StonehillHockey @NanooksHockey
#NCAAHockey
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📷 Five Hole Game of the Week Colorado College at Western Michigan · Fri., Nov. 13 · 7:00 PM ET Western Michigan is No. 1 in the Five Hole Index and scores 4.78 goals a game, 2nd in D1. Colorado College gives up just 1.50 a game, 3rd in D1, with Jackson Unger at .948 and a 93.5% penalty kill. Best offense against one of the best defenses. Western Michigan won both meetings at home last March, 5-2 and 2-1 in overtime. My pick: Western Michigan. @TheNCHC @CCTigerHKY @WMUHockey #NCAAHockey
📷 Special teams Union has the best power play in D1, scoring on 41.9% of its chances. Minnesota Duluth has the best penalty kill at 94.1%, with Colorado College right behind at 93.5%. Dartmouth is doing both: a 39.1% power play, tied for 2nd, and a 90.9% penalty kill. @USCHO @UnionmHockey @UMDMensHockey @Dartmouth_MIH #NCAAHockey
📷 NCHC points leaders A defenseman leads the NCHC in scoring. UMD captain Ty Hanson has 17 points (10 goals, 7 assists) in 12 games, and his 10 goals are tied for the most in D1. Western Michigan is right behind him: Adam Benák has 15, William Whitelaw 14 and Joona Väisänen 13. @TheNCHC @UMDMensHockey @WMUHockey #NCAAHockey
📷 Who's controlling play? Wisconsin takes 65.9% of the even-strength shot attempts in its games, the most in D1. Biggest mover: Dartmouth jumped from 54.3% to 61.1% in a week and is now 2nd in the country. North Dakota and Western Michigan are right behind. @USCHO @BadgerMHockey @Dartmouth_MIH @UNDmhockey #NCAAHockey
Robert Morris went to Long Island and swept them, 5-2 and 3-0, despite being outshot 81-45. I picked Long Island both nights. Robert Morris made me pay: their goalies stopped 79 of 81 shots, and they killed all four Long Island power plays. Jackson Reineke and Bruce McDonald lead the team with 8 points each. Next: off this weekend, then two at Sacred Heart on Nov. 20-21. @RMUMHockey @LIUMHockey @Atlantic_Hockey #NCAAHockey
📷 NHL Prospect Report, weekend of Nov. 5-8 Lucas Van Vliet had 7 points in two games for St. Thomas: 5 goals and 2 assists. Not bad for a 7th-round pick (Vegas, 2024). Chris Pelosi (Quinnipiac, Boston pick) and Logan Sawyer (Providence, Montreal pick) each had 3 goals and 5 points. Colorado College's Wilson Bjorck had 5 assists. @USCHO @TommieMHockey @QU_MIH @FriarsHockey #NCAAHockey
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📋 Northern Michigan report card
Oliver Auyeung-Ashton has been the story in Marquette. He's stopping .924 of the shots he sees in 8 starts, including a 30-save shutout of Miami on opening night and 35 saves in Friday's 2-1 win over Minnesota State.
That win came as a real underdog. I gave the Wildcats about a 1-in-4 chance, and they split the weekend.
Bowling Green comes to Marquette this weekend. My pick: Bowling Green, but this team has already pulled one upset this month.
@NMUHockey @BGSUHKY @MinnStMHockey
#NCAAHockey
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HARVARD DELIVERS THE UPSET ‼️
@HarvardMHockey takes down No. 13 Boston University, in a 6-5 win!
#NCAAMHockey
📷 New: the Five Hole Position Score Every player measured against his own position across D1, on a 0-100 scale. You asked for player impact by position, so here it is. Top forward: Michael Hage, Michigan (96) Top defenseman: Ty Hanson, Minnesota Duluth (96). He's been in on 44% of Minnesota Duluth's goals. Top goalie: Ethan Eskit, Massachusetts (99) Who are we missing? @USCHO @collegehockey @umichhockey @UMDMensHockey @UMassHockey #NCAAHockey
🏒 Does winning the draw matter?
Quinnipiac wins 61.0% of its faceoffs, the best in D1, and North Dakota is right behind at 60.0%.
Winning draws isn't everything, though. Wisconsin takes 67.6% of the shots on goal in its games, the most in D1, while winning a more modest 55.2% of faceoffs.
Dartmouth does both, at 58.3% on draws and 64.1% of shots.
@QU_MIH @UNDmhockey @BadgerMHockey @Dartmouth_MIH
#NCAAHockey
⚡ Who's cashing in on the power play?
Three players share the D1 lead with 4 power-play goals each: Bowling Green's Noah Morneau, Denver freshman Daxon Rudolph and Union's Connor Smith.
BU's Tynan Lawrence is one of seven right behind them with 3, and he's on the ice against Harvard right now.
@BGSUHKY @DU_Hockey @UnionmHockey @TerrierHockey
#NCAAHockey
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