base case is now that we trend towards bottom support ~35k-40k.
i agree w the takes on late 2027 bottom with general risk on assets but could also see it playing out a little earlier for btc bc its already been so depressed.
beginning to trim positions into stables slowly. may accelerate into stables on bigger bounce or larger breakdown beyond prev lows.
while its unfortunate for my portfolio, a cleanse may not be the worst thing.
i look forward to the blockchain believers who are still around at 40k.
in the meantime, i plan to get back to finding interesting spots, where people still dare to dream.
invalidation of this base case would be a change in price AND gut feel.
godspeed.
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forget who was the op but saw a good take recently
feels like most people here now are just for the money
lowkey feel like ive fallen there a bit too
the magic of 2021 was that we truly believed nfts would change the world
i am a believer in blockchain revolutionizing the financial system which is the main reason i stay around
but it seems like now the money making activities are different from the belief areas
with nfts, you were involved and invested with projects constantly that were in line w the view that these were the next big thing
now, its harder to constantly invest / trade in the belief areas bc they are just the main players like circle, hype, etc
it would almost be better to just deploy capital to them and log off
this is why spots like metadao, umia, cards, longxyz, etc are exciting and interesting bc you have the chance to invest alongside your beliefs
but unfortunately the belief spots feel fewer and farther between
perhaps the solution is i should just ignore the non belief spots and focus on the ones i do believe in, but its hard to not play the pure money making spots too
part of what feels attractive abt 40k and this past year while prices were depressed is that the excess goes away and you are left with primarily spots where investing overlaps with belief
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it feels like equities need to cool off for a bit and that 2027 might be a full on correction year across markets
why would btc be immune? why would btc show strength in a risk off period?
perhaps 10/10 did break something in the crypto markets and we were robbed of a 2026 bull year (akin to stocks)
once mentally prepared for this scenario, it actually begins to be attractive
yes, my portfolio would be in an infinitely better spot if we just ripped to aths and im still p much max exposed
but imagine the quality of those who will still be around at 40k
the true blockchain believers. perhaps this is an optimistic outcome for the industry.
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poetic reading that first line again
legit pico top
dont really like posting things like this bc it pretty much always marks my port local top but fuq it feeling proud of myself at port ath
there were many times this year i felt like an idiot for not pivoting to stocks
and there were times my conviction in our blockchain space was tested
but through it all tried to show up every day with curiosity abt the future of crypto
even if that meant chewing glass when required
endurance & curiosity is all one needs
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i ended up roundtripping a lot on my zec long but on the bright side i completed one of my goals this year
perps account is now out of the red and sitting at abt +8k, fully flat now
was up abt 100k at zec highs but alas
my thinking was i would just hold it all cycle so didnt close any earlier
now im not so sure abt the cycle bottom so securing my gains to at least complete this goal of bringing my perps account out of the red
perhaps this marks the bottom but overall happy w the trade
one of my priority goals this year is bringing my perps account back to at least breakeven
gonna start posting my progress here every week.
started my perps journey with a solid win and thought i was good.
spoiler, i wasnt good and consistently chopped down my pnl to a low of abt -$120k earlier this year.
been slowing improving and building back pnl.
current pnl abt -$90k
the smart thing to do is probs just to never touch perps again but i want to improve my game here and also earn back my pnl
lets get it
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fa cap retweeted
the concentration of high quality projects on Metadao is higher than anything else in crypto
Credible Finance, Jurassic Finance, Rip Cars, Avici, Umbra, Solomon, syndicate, Omnipair, lasso. Just a stacked lineup
there is this notion that metadao launches create adverse selection for the quality of founders/projects, but id argue that
1) this isnt true currently
2) it will actually be the opposite in future. ALL high quality founders will launch via Metadao and if they dont the market will interpret that as a negative
the long term thesis for Metadao is that the next wave of major winners over the next few years are all going to come from metadao