@fed_speak

Former buy-side gone corporate. Still know a thing or three. Interests include: finance, economics, sports, gambling, dad life, etc #FCOTY #FriedEggTwitter

 ATL
Joined February 2011
  • Tweets40.4K
  • Following1.1K
  • Followers32.7K
5.3KMedia
The purpose of life is to experience things for which you will later experience nostalgia.
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Anecdotal but none of my friends seem to enjoy their jobs more because of AI. Just more work to do and manage topped off with ever-present existential dread.
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I don’t think he’s going to be able to resist it actually. Almost too perfect.
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Polymarket
@PolymarketOct 25
Replying to @Polymarket
4% chance Trump pardons Elizabeth Holmes. poly.market/BnIyx0F

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

$541,854 has traded on "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" as of October 25, 2026. View real-time odds or trade on The World’s Largest Prediction Market™

polymarket.com
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Absolutely gripping. Give it all the awards.
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I’m going to see “You Can See Everything” tonight and it’s as excited as I’ve been to go see a movie in a long time.
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Something I hadn’t appreciated about Norm Macdonald is that he was grinding golf betting all the way until the end. Respect.
Norm Macdonald
@normmacdonald16 Jul 2021
Morikawa shoots a 64 to get to -9. He was my pick for this week, but I laid off at last second due to injury concerns.
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Prediction market use case: Hedge the loss of your tech job
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Polymarket
@PolymarketOct 21
Replying to @Polymarket
89% chance tech layoffs are up on the year. poly.market/nXhu8QQ

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?

$26,036 has traded on "Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?" as of October 21, 2026. View real-time odds or trade on The World’s Largest Prediction Market™

polymarket.com
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Worth reading the particulars of this market but an investing gauge to watch
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Polymarket
@PolymarketOct 20
Replying to @Polymarket
11% chance the AI bubble bursts. poly.market/BYFryK7

AI bubble burst by...?

$3,129,806 has traded on "AI bubble burst by...?" as of October 27, 2026. View real-time odds or trade on The World’s Largest Prediction Market™

polymarket.com
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Are people who synthesize information for a living more beneficiaries of AI or at risk of being replaced by it?
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*cue the “MORTGAGE RATES HAVE DROPPED” emails from all the lenders
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“It’s ironic that ‘AI’ was supposed to free us of the shackles of ‘the grind,’ automating the tedious tasks to free us up to pursue both higher-leverage and more satisfying pursuits. And yet, everyone is busier than ever.” Ain’t that the truth @Jack_Raines
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From here: youngmoney.co/p/the-differen…

The Difference Between “Can” and “Should”

Also: the paradox of choice in a low-friction environment.

youngmoney.co
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This is a what a box spread looks like for people who don’t know what a box spread is.
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Polymarket Money
@PolymarketMoneyOct 14
BREAKING: Odds of an October Fed rate hike surge following worse-than-expected U.S. inflation data. 35% chance.
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An interesting dynamic of the corporate ladder that the optimal way to climb it is to get really good at doing stuff for your boss who is no longer good at actually doing stuff so that you can become the boss of people who actually do stuff as your ability to actually do stuff slowly atrophies.
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On net do you think having kids makes you a better or worse worker?
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The ways to trade bitcoin will continue to outrun the ways to use bitcoin until morale improves.
Polymarket
@PolymarketOct 12
INTRODUCING: More ways to trade Bitcoin on the Polymarket app. • Hourly + daily up/downs • End of day/month/year price targets • How high/low will Bitcoin go • & more... 🔗 app.polymarket.us/S8ac/bitco…
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It’s actually ok to just watch college football with your friends and not talk about the impending singularity. You can just do that.
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It’s interesting to think about what exact sequence of events needs to occur for this to play out and if that sequence does play out how do you best play it
Polymarket Money
@PolymarketMoneyOct 9
BREAKING: OpenAI's odds of reaching a $1.5 trillion IPO valuation plunge amid reports reveal its annualized revenue is $20 billion below previous estimates. 58% chance.
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It was always going to be Sundar in the end
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Polymarket Money
@PolymarketMoneyOct 8
BREAKING: Google overtakes Anthropic in the odds to lead the AI race at year-end, worrying investors ahead of Anthropic’s IPO. 43% chance.
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