Félix Balazard (@felbalazard) header
Félix Balazard (@felbalazard) profile picture

Adjusting trials. PhD in statistics applied to epidemiology @felixbalazard.bsky.social

Joined November 2015
Photo by Félix Balazard (@felbalazard)Photo by Félix Balazard (@felbalazard)Photo by Félix Balazard (@felbalazard)Photo by Félix Balazard (@felbalazard)Photo by Félix Balazard (@felbalazard)Photo by Félix Balazard (@felbalazard)Photo by Félix Balazard (@felbalazard)Photo by Félix Balazard (@felbalazard)Photo by Félix Balazard (@felbalazard)Photo by Félix Balazard (@felbalazard)
⚡️New preprint on the impact of covariate adjustment⚡️ 2 key messages: -Indications with a large proportion of events are more impacted by covariate adjustment -Covariate adjustment allows to broaden eligibility criteria 1/11
1
8
1
25
I still code by hand and I still read code generated by agents. But around me I see what's quoted here. When I ask questions to some colleagues they answer after 30 minutes what should take a minute. Why? Because they have to prompt their agent. And probably try several prompts as they have no clue about what to look for. Even more surprising. A colleague asked me how I got an idea that proved interesting. I said I used my brain. This idea implementation was removed by AI agent and I override their code. We've entered the meat proxy era I'm afraid. Don't become a meat proxy. Use your brain.
this is whats going to happen to epic games in about a year
88
209
17
2,550
89,510
Félix Balazard retweeted
Mistral VP of Science @PierreStock says they have efficiency in their DNA and people should give them more money: "Now, it's 300 people, and [Le Chonk] we managed to train it on only 10 megawatts of compute from scratch. 10 megawatts of compute is roughly 4,000 GB300s, to give you an order of magnitude." "That's super low. It's a fraction of what every competitor uses, and we trained it on our own compute." "It's pretty amazing, and we really got efficiency in our DNA. But now, the thing I want to tell everyone is that it means that you should give us more money because the yield is there....Please give us 1 gigawatt." "We've now spent one year building the reinforcement learning machine in training… [Le Chonk] is the best open-weight model in the world on cyber defense, on coding, and on coding agents."
ML4 is now open-weight! Frontier capabilities on code agents & cyber, way more efficient and compact than its Preview version three weeks ago (!) and cherry on the cake: technical report telling its epic backstory. Check it out: huggingface.co/mistralai/Mis…
9
46
14
267
64,000
Félix Balazard retweeted
Le Chonk report is out! it's a good read, link below :)
10
46
7
480
44,949
Félix Balazard retweeted
Mistral Large 4 for cyber is an absolute banger
9
15
1
201
13,848
Félix Balazard retweeted
it actually feels evil to have a megaplatform and release ai-generated critiques of somebodies research without carefully checking each one. like really genuinely thoughtlessly evil. ruining the informational commons for what exactly? a dunk?
23
23
3
566
23,335
Félix Balazard retweeted
Mistral is... BACK?! They've just released what might be the absolute best open weights model for coding - Better than Kimi/DeepSeek/GLM on terminal bench 4 - 1st on cognition's private frontiercode 2.0 - Fewer tokens per task than others Already available on Hugging Face and via api!
Today, we release the weights of a new and improved Le Chonk, advancing the open frontier for agentic coding and cybersecurity. 💻 Built to build: Le Chonk ranks #1 on @cognition’s FrontierCode among open models, and sets a new benchmark for Pareto efficiency on @artificialanalysis. 🛡 Built to defend: State-of-the-art in cyberdefense, put through the paces by the world's leading cyber vendors, including @CrowdStrike, @cloudflare, @rubrik, @zscaler, and others. Built for sovereignty: Make it yours. Download the weights on @huggingface , customize it with Mistral Forge, and deploy it wherever you need it. Read more from our team and customers 👇:
25
41
3
378
29,459
Félix Balazard retweeted
Researchers familiar with the papers know that this is an unserious use of AI. I work on tax havens so I feel competent enough to go through an example for people from other fields. I chose a published paper because I think including unpublished papers with juniors is evil. 1/8
5
16
2
149
23,066
Félix Balazard retweeted
So far at @MistralAI we've been extremely capital efficient, and we believe the "only" delta with the closed labs is compute. We need much more compute, and we will build it. "Build or surrender" as the saying goes.
Mistral researcher @Sagar_Vaze argues Mistral can catch OpenAI and Anthropic despite starting years later and having far less compute: "What it would have taken for us to get to the frontier in 2023 was us to be founded in 2020 or 2019." "This is really the key difference between ourselves, a very new lab, and some of the more established players. We just started a few years later." "The models we've released today are state-of-the-art in a bunch of key capabilities, finance, law, engineering, some multimodal tasks." "On agentic coding, we’re the best OSS model. Catching up with OpenAI and Anthropic is absolutely on the cards. That's absolutely the vision of Mistral." "We don't want open weights and closed weights to have some delta in performance in the long term." "The thing we need to get there is compute. We’ve raised 6 billion, dollars or euros, a lot of money by traditional standards. But compared to what these other labs have raised, it’s a drop in the bucket." "We’ve convinced ourselves that we can do more with less, and the next step is to do much more with much more." @MistralAI
8
25
265
10,034
Félix Balazard retweeted
What a beautiful day to use a french LLM in a french harness, running on french managed kubernetes on french datacenters.
6
22
3
330
10,626
Félix Balazard retweeted
Today we can finally talk about @enveda's partnership with @AnthropicAI . “Partnership” is a word that covers a lot of sins, so here is what it actually bought us: 1. a Phase 2 program pulled forward by three weeks 2. an IND submission accelerated for another soon-to-be-announced clinical program 3. an Investigator’s Brochure, drafted by @claudeai and signed off by our team after one minor edit, now in front of the FDA We chose to work with Anthropic on development, not discovery. Enveda already finds medicines faster than we can develop them, and I think the industry is heading the same way. The slowest part of development is paperwork, directly or indirectly: batch records, study reports, the Investigator’s Brochure, and the IND that packages it all for the FDA. Discovery gets the headlines. Document review is where the months go. Test 1: manufacturing batch release for a Phase 2 program. Before a batch can go to a trial, someone checks every page of its manufacturing record by hand. Claude read 1,061 scanned, largely handwritten pages from the campaign. Four of our reviewers and outside consultants independently reviewed the same pages, and a Quality adjudicator scored every comment against one question: would an FDA auditor raise it? Claude matched all 11 actionable issues the experts found and added 7 they had missed. Review time fell from 26 hours (typically spread over several weeks) to under 3, an 89% reduction, for about $37 in model cost. On another program, it flagged a climbing impurity that routine review had cleared; it later went out of specification. Test 2: the Investigator’s Brochure for an IND, drafted in four hours instead of weeks. For a new Enveda medicine about to enter human trials, Claude drafted the brochure every trial physician relies on, from a structured layer of facts pulled from our tox, bioanalytical, and PK reports. Our reviewers found one minor unit-conversion error. We fixed it and included that draft in the IND. From the same source layer, Claude drafted the core of the IND itself in four hours, work that takes the best teams a month or more. None of this works unless the model stays factful, so we built a custom harness to force it. It reads every page as an image, keeps a code ledger of which pages it read, and ties every finding to its page and governing document. Across the evaluation, no finding cited anything that was not in the record. The full method is public. Our technical report on the CMC Document Processor covers the architecture, GMP controls, study design, and results, and we open-sourced a companion implementation so you can build your own! Thank you to the incredible @enveda and @AnthropicAI teams for making this possible.
Patients cannot wait another day for tomorrow’s medicines. Today, bringing a drug to market can take more than 10 years and cost over $1 billion. A major contributor is the time and expense required to generate and review the documentation that helps to build medicines that are safe and effective. That is why we are thrilled to partner with @AnthropicAI to transform drug development, starting with our clinical-stage programs. Together, we built tools to address two major early-stage bottlenecks: preparing a complete IND package and reviewing CMC batch records for release. The results have been groundbreaking in speed, cost, and quality. Read more: anthropic.com/research/early…
9
15
4
116
9,912
Félix Balazard retweeted
Today, in collaboration with Anthropic, we’re excited to share rapid initial progress towards an antibody treatment for food allergy, which affects over 200 million people worldwide, discovered with the help of Claude. At Divergence Labs, we believe that AI can unlock the next generation of antibody therapeutics with more effective mechanisms than before. Such mechanisms are urgently needed in food allergy, which involve overcoming one of the tightest affinity protein pairs in immunology, IgE and its receptor FcεRI, on mast cells. Treatment with Xolair—the only approved antibody for food allergy—sequesters circulating IgE, but mast cells remain sensitized for weeks to months due to the extraordinarily slow dissociation of IgE from FcεRI. We envision a treatment that actively pulls IgE off of FcεRI, without waiting for natural dissociation. Like picking a lock, this requires the right combination of geometry and force. Our research team, working with Claude, ideated on mechanisms to accomplish this disruption, and converged on an antibody format with two arms with different functions and epitopes. Within one month, we designed, synthesized, and experimentally confirmed the biophysical function of the two arms, which we are now assembling into full therapeutic formats.
133
630
130
5,135
510,169
Félix Balazard retweeted
Super cool paper. Potentially which drug targets to avoid. OX40 on the list. Human inborn errors of immunity: 2024 update on the classification from the International Union of Immunological Societies Expert Committee pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/article…
4
9
1
99
16,446
Félix Balazard retweeted
We are super proud of what we built ! This is what allowed us to go from BOTANIC-0, an isolated initial research effort, to BOTANIC-1, which is frontier in plant biology. Read more in our research blog: substack.com/home/post/p-221…
2
2
73
Félix Balazard retweeted
This one will feel different than my usual posts. Here I will not describe some fancy new ML model but instead I will describe both the research program and engineering systems we put in place at @livingmodels to make sure we can consistently deliver frontier models in biology=>
2
4
1
15
640
Félix Balazard retweeted
A bunch of good journals in probability closed all their submissions until next months. They need time to update their policies; they've been under pressure for months but now it's gone totally out of control... The journals are: Bernoulli, Electronic journal of Probability, Electrony Communications in Probability, Stochastic Processes and Applications, Annales de l'IHP B, ESAIM proba/stats.
2
22
3
81
9,566
Félix Balazard retweeted
Anyway, this incredibly rushed release will be an “Augean stables” task to clean up. One that is devoid of fun and hard to incentivize. So you can understand why mathematicians aren't so thrilled at this giant pile of turd dumped at our doorstep. •7/11 nitter.gq/gro_tsen/status/209833…
“One morning, when Gregor Samsa woke from restless dreams, he found mathematics transformed into a monstrous pile of Lean-certified AI slop.”
2
6
58
3,166
Félix Balazard retweeted
Even if the papers are correct, there are many complaints they are badly written: Dana Moshkovitz complains on scottaaronson.blog/?p=10169 that “the paper is so horribly written that it’s impossible to read it without AI help” & “citations are often irrelevant and confusing”. •4/11
1
5
1
40
3,330
We're looking at 3-4 AG results by OAI being straight up unfixably wrong because of a sign error made by Supreme Intelligence because it can't draw a picture properly and nobody in OAI team understands the math or bothered to run Lean this time. Historic disaster.
32
64
5
1,104
70,223
Félix Balazard retweeted
One @OpenAI paper is a 2-approximation for shortest common superstring, a problem relevant to read compression. I tested it and found its construction requires 4.29 million candidate vertices for 1,000 reads, making the algorithm as written impractical at sequencing scale. 1/
8
22
1
194
38,858