Investerare i småbolagsaktier. Söker efter en blandning av undervärderade, missförstådda och bortglömda aktier med stor potential. Inga förhoppningsbolag.
Joined August 2013
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Man måste gilla Billy Boy!
Be Bill Ackman.
> Grow up in Chappaqua, New York.
Your dad is in real estate. Your mom is organizing commuters to fight the railroad over lousy service.
> Go gray at nine years old. Apparently, you've been stressed about the markets since elementary school.
> Dad doesn't believe in allowances, so he pays you by the hour to dig a 50-foot ditch.
> Realize pretty quickly that hourly work is for suckers. Negotiate a flat fee on the next job.
> Tell your dad as a teenager that you're going to be a millionaire by 30, worth $100 million by 40, and a billionaire by 50.
> Normal teenage stuff.
> Go to Harvard. Sell advertising for travel guides. Make $14,000 in one summer.
> Immediately blow a bunch of it on a ridiculous stereo system and learn about income taxes the hard way.
> Graduate. Work for your dad. Go back to Harvard for your MBA.
> Co-captain a rowing team that puts dollar signs on its oars.
> Get booed for it.
> Defend the dollar signs in the school newspaper.
> This guy was absolutely born for Twitter.
> Graduate in 1992. Start a hedge fund called Gotham Partners.
> Cold-call people on the Forbes 400 to raise money.
> Get married in 1994 to a woman your dad helped introduce you to by fax.
> Yes, fax.
> By 2002, your fund is winding down. Not exactly how you drew it up.
> Get into a dispute with Carl Icahn over a $4.5 million earnout from a business deal.
> Sue him. Eventually win.
> In 2004, start another fund called Pershing Square with about $54 million.
> Bet against bond insurers before the financial crisis. Make roughly $1.1 billion on the hedges.
> Buy into a bankrupt shopping mall company called General Growth Properties. By 2011, an investment that started at $60 million is worth roughly $1.6 billion.
> Not bad.
> In 2012, publicly commit to giving away most of your wealth.
> Also put on a $1 billion bet against Herbalife because you believe it's a pyramid scheme.
> Carl Icahn takes the other side.
> Naturally.
> In 2013, the two of you get into an absolutely legendary argument on live CNBC.
> Icahn calls you a "crybaby in the schoolyard."
> You're two billionaires in your 40s and 70s arguing on national television like somebody stole somebody else's lunch money.
> It's incredible television.
> Meanwhile, get involved in Canadian Pacific Railway. Push for a management overhaul. Help turn the company around.
> Exit in 2016 with roughly $2.6 billion in gains for Pershing.
> Unfortunately, also get involved in Valeant Pharmaceuticals.
> Lose about $4 billion.
> Call it a "huge mistake."
> Fair assessment.
> Your marriage breaks down. Things get rough personally. You miss your kids.
> Buy an apartment in the same building as them just to be close.
> Then start dating Neri Oxman, a brilliant MIT professor.
> She mentions that Brad Pitt is visiting her lab.
> One day she goes quiet for hours while he's there.
> You start freaking out that Brad Pitt is going to steal your girlfriend.
> Later tell Lex Fridman this was one of the scariest moments of your life.
> You've personally lost billions of dollars in the stock market, but Brad Pitt showing up at MIT is what really sends you over the edge.
> I love this story so much.
> Eventually marry her in 2019.
> Oh, and that Herbalife bet?
> Close it in 2018. Lose about a billion dollars, by your own account.
> Can't win them all.
> Then 2020 rolls around.
> COVID hits.
> Go on CNBC and tell everyone "hell is coming."
> Also tell viewers you're buying stocks.
> Your funds have put on pandemic hedges that ultimately generate $2.6 billion in proceeds against $27 million in premiums and commissions.
> One of the great trades of the financial crisis.
> Spend the pandemic buying stocks while everyone else is losing their minds.
> In 2021, donate Coupang shares then worth roughly $1.36 billion to charitable causes.
> In 2022, buy more than a billion dollars of Netflix.
> Three months later, sell it at a reported loss of over $400 million.
> Probably the most expensive Netflix subscription in human history.
> Then get into a massive public fight with Harvard over its leadership.
> After the university president resigns, write a roughly 4,000-word reaction.
> Remember that your high school yearbook voted you "most verbose."
> Absolutely nailed that one.
> In 2025, at 59 years old, decide you want to play professional tennis.
> Enter an ATP Challenger doubles tournament with Jack Sock.
> Lose 6-1, 7-5.
> Who cares. You played professional tennis at 59.
> Then decide the young men of America need dating advice.
> Go on X and recommend walking up to women and politely asking, "May I meet you?"
> The internet loses its mind.
> Double down.
> This is a man who has fought Carl Icahn, survived a multi-billion-dollar loss, stared down Brad Pitt as a romantic threat, and played professional tennis.
> You think he's worried about getting rejected on an elevator?
> In 2026, bring Pershing Square Inc. and Pershing Square USA to the New York Stock Exchange.
> And now, at 60 years old, go on CNBC and warn that the stock market has become a casino.
> Bill, my brother.
You've been digging ditches, fighting billionaires, making and losing fortunes, buying bankrupt malls, arguing with Harvard, giving away billions, worrying about Brad Pitt, and dispensing dating advice to strangers.
You've lived about seven different lives.
What an absolutely living legend! 🫡
Bra kapitalallokering hos bolag gör sån jäkla skillnad. En duktig kapitalallokerare bör rimligen vara opportunistisk och se efter vart pengarna jobbar bäst. Förvärv, organisk tillväxt, utdelning, återköp. Det tråkiga blir när bolag snöar in sig på en av dessa... >
.. utan att utvärdera de andra. Utmaningen ligger i det klassiska att de flesta i styrelser är ganska kassa kapitalallokerare. Olika tidshorisont, vad för typ av ägare (tex föredrar utdelning) eller var erfarenheten finns påverkar.
financeamir retweeted
Ben Affleck says AI is simply matrix multiplication, linear algebra and floating point calculations, and however convincingly it sounds like a person, it has nothing to do with thought, humanity or feeling
“Nor do I believe, and I think it’s important to draw the distinction between what AI does, which is simply predict the next token or the next word in a sentence, then add that word on, run it back to the machine, do a lot of computation and pick the next word."
"That is a very different thing than sentience or thought. And I think we need to be really clear about that because it can be convincingly, in an illusory way, sound like thought or like a person."
"But let’s be real clear. This is matrix multiplication. This is linear algebra. These are floating point calculations. It has nothing to do with thought, humanity, or feeling.”
Ben Affleck reveals he writes Python, understands convolutional neural networks, worked extensively with GPUs, and used his celebrity status to get private looks at Google and OpenAI’s video models
“I’ve always been kind of into computers since I was young. Then, when film started to move from analog film to digital, I became more interested in that aspect of it. The visual-effects workflow for many years has included machine learning, so I can write pretty shitty Python scripts and stuff like that.
“With convolutional neural networks, which were the precursors to what the transformer can do, which is much more computation simultaneously, you would do things like look at what’s called a tensor. That’s the numerical translation of a visual image in numbers, like the batch number, the frame number and the red, green and blue values of each pixel in each frame. It’s just that simple. That numeric is called a tensor.
“You’d use a convolutional neural network to identify patterns that reveal what’s called edge detection or feature extraction, which is identifying patterns well enough to know, this is where the window ledge is, so we can more easily take the green-screen image out and replace it with something.
“That was familiar to me early on because, prior to Artists Equity, I had a small visual-effects company. I’ve worked with GPUs a lot too. The visual-effects guys said, ‘Hey, you should see. There are a couple: Google and this other company, OpenAI, are doing really interesting stuff with transformers in video.’
“I’ve learned that I can actually just call up and go, ‘Hey, it’s Ben Affleck. Can I come see what you’re doing?’ Sometimes people say yes, to my astonishment.”
financeamir retweeted
Det är väldigt lätt att säga att något var självklart after the fact. Tyvärr så går det inte att tjäna pengar så. Om man sitter med info, data eller en hypotes innan men inte agerar på det spelar det ändå ingen roll.
$HACK en rejäl kalldusch idag. Jag tycker det ser väldigt svagt ut. När jag köpte i mars var caset att jag inte betalar för growth, nu är den tillbaka till samma kurs. Inkl utdelning lite högre.
Mina tankar>>
$hack vad är den stora risken här som gör att ev/ebit 6x 2026 ska vara rimligt? EV kommer snabbt ner pga låg FCF multipel.
Diversifierat på kund, land och spel. Känns för billigt nu. Lockups and what not kanske är skitsamma mtp värdering så låg köpare hittar hit? >>
Hacksaw omsätter 50m om dagen med 17mdr i market cap. Om någon tror att twitterprofiler och småsparare drivit kursen är man clueless.
Ifall någon missuppfattat: det enda som leder till above average returns (tillräckligt högt för att kompensera för förlorare och ändå skapa god avkastning) på 1-2 års sikt är att dina innehav ska förändras i multipel.
Ett bolag som växer vinsten 20% per år kommer inte ge 20% >>
Utöver vinst outlook kan det vara rena perceptionsförändringar. Det kan vara pga tillfällig missuppfattning, aktien bortglömd eller dylikt.