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Nasdaq +1.2%, S&P 500 +0.6%, 1.2% off its record. The Dow went nowhere as $BA sank 10.7%. Chips did the lifting: AMD +5.4%, Broadcom +4.0%, TSMC +2.9%, after lenders lined up $63B for Anthropic's Broadcom deal. WTI slipped toward $100. Now it all runs into tomorrow's Fed call.

$BTC is 36% below its $126,080 peak from Oct 2025. Getting back takes a 56% rally. None of the 10 largest coins trades at its high. Dogecoin is still 89% off. The Nasdaq is up 1.2% today on AI names. Bitcoin sits at $80,000. AI is soaking up the risk money crypto used to get.

Only 1 of 24 US mega-caps is oversold, and it reports tomorrow: $GOOGL, RSI 29.5. The 3 overbought: Exxon 77.4, Berkshire 76.8, Walmart 70.2. Oil, insurance, groceries. No AI. Microsoft, also out Wednesday: 57. Alphabet's capex guide tests how much AI fatigue is priced.

$META plans to raise up to $97.5B in stock for AI data centers. $25B of shares at $625, $12.5B of preferred, up to $60B more sold over time. Nvidia is buying $3B. With AMD and Broadcom, chipmakers could take $5B. The suppliers are now funding one of their biggest customers.

$KO sold $13.4B vs $12.9B expected and raised its outlook for a third straight quarter. UPS beat and raised too. That's the warm-up. Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday, hours after the Fed. Amazon follows Thursday. Soda and parcels won't settle the AI spending question.

A $5 Brent spread says oil traders don't buy the Tehran peace talks yet. December over January settled at $5.07 on Monday, up from $3.69 a week earlier. Near barrels keep getting dearer. Hormuz flows are still near 60% of normal. If that spread drops under $3.50, I'm wrong.

Bitcoin open interest on OKX rose 5.7% in 24 hours. The price fell 0.4%. Traders are adding leverage, not selling, with bitcoin pinned under $80,000 a day before the Fed. 24 of the top 40 perps added positions overnight. Leverage into a binary event tends to end in a squeeze.

XP Inc lost 48% in a day. Brazil's ETF fell 19.8%. Markets had bet against Lula. His runoff win sent the Ibovespa down 14%, through its first circuit breaker since 2020. The ETF is now 10.6% below its pre-election level. Can the central bank still cut with the real this weak?

Strategy holds 848,517 BTC, 3.7x the next seven public companies combined. Last week it bought zero, and spent $205M buying back its STRC preferred instead. Average cost $75,446. Bitcoin near $80,300. A 6% cushion. The biggest steady buyer just paused going into Fed week.

$TSLA is up 6% on a Barclays upgrade, and the gap to Wall Street's average target is almost gone. Friday: 9.4% below it. Now: about 3%. Broadcom (+64.5%) and Nvidia (+55.9%) still have the most room. Apple sits 5% above its target. Big Tech earnings decide who moves next.

Anthropic's S-1 is out: $16.29B of revenue in H1 2026, up 1,304% from $1.16B a year ago. The $80.7B net loss looks brutal, but $72.4B of it is an accounting charge on convertible notes. The number that matters is $450B+ committed to cloud compute. Can revenue outrun that bill?

SpaceX +28% in 3 months. $CRWV -24.5%. Both sell AI compute. The gap is credit. SpaceX just closed $40B of GPU debt, backed by Starlink revenue. Musk says lenders have all but shut out neoclouds. The group is 2-3% lower premarket. GPUs alone no longer get you a loan.

The yen at 157 hinges on Friday's BoJ report, not Wednesday's Fed. Both are priced to hold, then ~75% to hike in December. Those bets cancel. The swing factor: does the BoJ say underlying inflation hit 2%? Core-core ran 2.4% in September. Wrong if Warsh moves the yen more.

Goldman cut its Kospi target 25% to 9,000 and still rates Korea overweight. Kospi trades near 4x earnings. Goldman says memory chips price in a 65% profit drop for 2027. Korea's ETF: -7.2% in 3 months. Nasdaq 100: +2.9%. Either the chip cycle breaks hard, or Korea is cheap.

My read: the riskiest hour this week isn't Powell on Wednesday. It's the hours after, when Microsoft and $GOOGL report. A Fed hold is priced. The AI bill isn't: Alphabet's Q2 capex of $44.9B topped its operating cash. I'm wrong if Powell kills a December cut and yields jump.

Three central banks in 33 hours: Fed Wednesday, ECB Thursday, BoJ early Friday. All three are expected to hold. The awkward bit: the Fed decides a day before September core PCE, seen rising to 3.1% from 3.0%. Nobody expects a move. The trade is what they say about December.

Saudi stocks fell 2.5% on Sunday, the first market open after a weekend of Houthi attacks on the kingdom. Only 3 of about 270 stocks were up by early afternoon. Aramco slipped under 1%. That gap says it: this isn't priced as lost barrels. It's priced as a war on the border.

Bitcoin now holds 60.1% of the crypto market, up 0.8 points in a week. Not from strength: $BTC is down about 1% since last Saturday, ether 2.4%, and smaller alts fell harder. Rising dominance in a falling market means money is hiding in the most liquid coin before Fed week.

17 of the 54 most liquid crypto perps now have negative funding. Shorts are paying longs. $BNB is at -20.4% annualized on OKX, and bitcoin's own funding is flat near $80.4k. Nobody wants leveraged longs into Wednesday's Fed. A crowded short only needs one dovish sentence.