🇦🇹 LASK's three wins over 🇵🇹 Sporting in last 7 years is one of those incredible stories European football offers every now and then. 📽️ We made a 5-minute video taking a closer look at it. 🙂 We already passed 1K subscribers on our YT channel. 🎉 Thank you for supporting us and join us there for more content like this! 🙏 youtube.com/watch?v=wsWu9MQT…

Aston Villa 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 have started the UCL perfectly, with 9/9 pts and +9 GD. They are basically qualified (99%) for Top 24, but are right at the coin flip chances for Top 8. Their schedule ahead looks tough, but how many more points do they need for a Top 8 finish? Due to their exceptional goal difference, they are one of the teams with the highest chances to qualify if they end up on 16 pts (91%!), which means that 7 more points SHOULD be enough, but not guaranteed. 🇹🇷 Galatasaray away, 🇩🇪 Dortmund at home, 🇨🇿 Slavia away. These three games are their best chances to get those 7 pts. And with 🇪🇸 Barcelona and 🇫🇷 PSG - who knows? 👉 Detailed team-level projections and who needs what to qualify available in our app at football-md.com

🇧🇷 Palmeiras survives the scare and eliminates 🇧🇷 Fluminense on penalties after losing the return home leg! They are the first 🌎 Copa Libertadores finalists, and are waiting for either 🇧🇷 Flamengo or 🇦🇷 Estudiantes! 🏆 To win Libertadores: 49% 🇧🇷 Palmeiras 41% 🇧🇷 Flamengo 10% 🇦🇷 Estudiantes

🇩🇪 BVB v Villarreal 🇪🇸 is still the most attended 🔵 UCL game of the season. Only 🇪🇸 Real Madrid can overtake them at Bernabéu.

🔵 UEFA Champions League: single-outcome projected table Instead of averaging thousands of simulations, this table plays out every league-phase match only once. How each match is resolved: ✅ The favourite wins, with its most likely scoreline for goal difference 🤝 Draws are assumed for the closest matchups so that they reproduce the number of expected draws in 🔵 UCL league phase Here the order of teams IS NOT the same as if you simulate the competition tens of thousands of times and take average points (xPts). For that check our other posts. 👉 Full team-level projections and scenarios for UCL UEL UECL available at football-md.com

In our single-outcome model, 🇹🇷 Galatasaray are now projected to reach 11 pts, and finish 18th. The fact that this puts them 7 places higher than their ranking on xPts (25th) speaks to the fact that there are many very close calls in those remaining 5 matches. For instance, in home games v 🇩🇪 Stuttgart (WDL: 46-23-31) and 🇳🇱 Feyenoord (WDL: 49-23-28), 🇹🇷 Galatasaray are below 50% to get the win. So it should be very close until the end! 👉 Full team-level projections and scenarios for all teams available in our app at football-md.com

🇷🇸 Crvena zvezda vs 🇩🇰 FC Copenhagen, 🟢 UEFA Conference League, Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 CEST 🏆 43% 🇷🇸 Crvena zvezda 25% 🤝 Draw 32% 🇩🇰 FC Copenhagen 55% chance of 3+ goals 57% both teams score Most likely score: 1-1 Scorelines, expected corners and shots for every match: football-md.com/match-foreca…

Currently 9⃣ pts give a 68% chance overall for a 🟠 Top 24 finish. But % differ on the team level. 🇮🇹 Milan have 87% to qualify if they end up on 9 pts. 🇵🇱 Lech Poznań have only 46% to survive if they finish on 9 pts. Differences in probability mainly stem from the differences in projected goal differences across teams, and on other factors. Visual shows the probabilities for all 36 teams, before the start of MD3. These % change after each game is played. 👉 Full team-level projections for each outcome in UCL UEL UECL updated in real time available at football-md.com/simulator

Currently 7⃣ pts give an 80% chance for a 🟢 Top 24 finish. But those are competition-wide probabilities. Not every club has the same likelihood to qualify if they end up on 7 pts. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Brighton have 95% to qualify if they end up on 7 pts. 🇱🇹 Kauno Žalgiris have only 57% to survive if they finish with 7 pts. Probability mainly depends on the projected goal difference each team will have in the end, and on other factors. Visual shows the probabilities for all 36 teams, before the start of MD2. These % change after each game is played. 👉 Full team-level projections for each outcome in UCL UEL UECL updated in real time available at football-md.com/simulator

🇭🇷 Dinamo Zagreb plays one of the key matches for their 🟠 Top 24 race today v 🇳🇱 NEC Nijmegen. A win lifts them above 80%, a loss drops them below 50%. A draw hurts them as well given the schedule they have until the end. ❓ But what other results they should root for to increase their chances? ➕ Biggest positive effect if: 🇫🇷 Lyon win 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Sunderland win draw in 🇨🇿 Viktoria v 🇧🇬 Levski 🇬🇷 Olympiacos win ... ➖ Biggest negative effect if: 🇬🇷 OFI Crete win 🇵🇱 Lech win 🇵🇹 Torreense win 🇩🇪 Hoffenheim win 🇨🇿 Sparta win 🇨🇾 Omonia win ... 👉 Full team-level details on who needs what available in our app at football-md.com

Top 5 🟢 Conference League games for the Top 8 race today 🔍 1️⃣ 🇫🇷 Monaco v Freiburg 🇩🇪: two teams on about 56%, the winner goes to about 79%. A draw leaves both near 50% 2️⃣ 🇵🇹 Braga v Gent 🇧🇪: Gent 74% with a win in Braga, 33% with a defeat. Braga 6% with a defeat 3️⃣ 🇪🇸 Getafe v Lugano 🇨🇭: a Lugano win in Getafe takes them from 37% to 64% 4️⃣ 🇷🇸 Crvena zvezda v FC Copenhagen 🇩🇰: Copenhagen 88% with a win in Belgrade. Crvena Zvezda 38% with a win, 6% with a defeat 5️⃣ 🇩🇰 Midtjylland v STVV 🇧🇪: a STVV win in Herning doubles their chance, 24% ➡️ 49% 🇳🇱 Ajax v Atalanta 🇮🇹? Only 11th Which result should your team root for? It's in our app 📲 football-md.com

Top 5 🟠 Europa League games for the Top 8 race tonight 🔍 1️⃣ 🇹🇷 Beşiktaş v Crystal Palace 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿: Beşiktaş 76% with a win, 39% with a defeat. A Palace win in Istanbul takes them from 25% to 46% 2️⃣ 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Bournemouth v Milan 🇮🇹: Milan 71% with a win, 31% with a defeat. Bournemouth 87% with a win 3️⃣ 🇵🇱 Lech Poznań v Sunderland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿: all about Sunderland, 75% with a win in Poznań, 38% with a defeat 4️⃣ 🇬🇷 Olympiacos v Sparta Prague 🇨🇿: Olympiacos 69% with a win, 32% with a defeat. A Sparta win more than doubles their chance, 10% ➡️ 24% 5️⃣ 🇩🇪 Hoffenheim v Lyon 🇫🇷: Lyon 78% with a win, 43% with a defeat Which result should your team root for? It's in our app 📲 football-md.com

After MD3, 🇧🇦 Ermedin Demirović still leads the Goalscorer rankings in 🔵UCL. Minutes played are the first tie-breaker in UEFA competitions, and Demirović scored 4 goals in only 90 minutes on the pitch!

🇵🇹 Sporting CP is starting to have traumatic experiences with 🇦🇹 LASK. Back in 2020, during the COVID pandemic, the qualifying rounds (except for UCL PO) were played as single-leg matches behind closed doors. 🇦🇹 LASK beat 🇵🇹 Sporting CP at José Alvalade in 🟠 UEL PO and eliminated them from Europe altogether! There was no 🟢 Conference League back then so losing in UEL PO meant the end of European season for Sporting! This remained the only time 🇵🇹 Sporting CP played in Europe but were eliminated before group/league stage in over 20 years (since 2005).

🏟️ Attendances 🔵 UCL MD3: 75,000 🇩🇪 Bayern v 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Arsenal 73,352 🇮🇹 Inter Milan v 🇺🇦 Shakhtar 73,016 🇪🇸 Real Madrid v 🇩🇪 RB Leipzig 67,524 🇪🇸 Real Betis v 🇳🇱 Feyenoord 64,399 🇮🇹 Roma v 🇸🇰 Slovan B. 59,610 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Liverpool v 🇪🇸 Villarreal 58,000 🇩🇪 Stuttgart v 🇪🇸 Atlético M. 48,985 🇵🇹 Sporting CP v 🇦🇹 LASK 48,935 🇵🇹 Porto v 🇳🇱 PSV Eindhoven 47,421 🇫🇷 PSG v 🇪🇸 Barcelona 47,221 🇦🇿 Sabah v 🇩🇪 B. Dortmund 44,142 🇫🇷 Lille v 🇹🇷 Galatasaray 40,124 🇹🇷 Fenerbahçe v 🇨🇿 Slavia 40,042 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Manchester City v 🇬🇷 AEK 35,096 🇮🇹 Napoli v 🇳🇴 Bodø/Glimt 33,410 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Aston Villa v 🇳🇴 Viking 26,023 🇧🇪 Club Brugge v 🇫🇷 Lens 10,875 🇮🇹 Como v 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Manchester Utd 👉 Attendances and stadium fill rates for every 🔵 UCL 🟠 UEL 🟢 UECL match now available at football-md.com/attendance.

🇧🇪 Club Brugge make another step towards the 🌐 2029 Club World Cup, extending their lead over 🇮🇹 Atalanta to 6 pts! But given that it's very likely that the next two European champions will be the teams ranked above them, the qualification line will go further two places down. As of current standings, it would include 🇮🇹 Atalanta and 🇳🇱 PSV! 🇳🇱 PSV also with important 3 pts this week. ❌ Currently outside CWC positions due to country cap: 🇪🇸 Atlético Madrid 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Manchester City 🇩🇪 Leverkusen 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Aston Villa 👉 Full details on Club World Cup 2029 in our app on football-md.com

Our 📽️ recap of the week: 🇹🇷 Galatasaray came from 2-1 down to win 4-2 in 🇫🇷 Lille and nearly doubled their Top 24 chance 🇦🇹 LASK stun 🇵🇹 Sporting in Lisbon with their first ever UCL win 🇳🇱 PSV win in 🇵🇹 Porto, 🇮🇹 Como beat 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Man Utd 4-1 🇵🇹 Porto, 🇫🇷 Lille and 🇸🇰 Slovan the only teams still without a point 🇫🇷 PSG overtake 🇪🇸 Barcelona as our favourites to win it 🧮 Plus the projected table, the projected bracket and 🇩🇪 Bayern v Arsenal 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 goal by goal on our live dashboard ▶️ Full video on our YouTube channel, give us a follow: youtu.be/1_r7CRBlmYY