Forward Guidance

NEW ROUNDUP with @TgMacro We cover: 🔸 Post-midterm selloff 🔸 Bond market low already in? 🔸 Semis officially broken $SMH -11% 🔸 Gold's comeback 🔸 Will the selloff kill the December hike? TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Tony Shows Up, Markets Fall Apart 04:29 Did The Midterms Break The Market? 07:48 The Trades Working Right Now 12:24 Fidelity, Blockworks MCP, DAS London 14:05 Is 2018 Happening Again? 17:38 The AI Bubble Starts Bursting 21:20 Can Gold And Bitcoin Survive? 24:53 Is A Liquidation Cascade Coming? 27:45 Fidelity, Blockworks MCP, DAS London 29:33 Can The Fed Really Hike? 32:12 The AI IPO Frenzy Unravels 37:34 The Best Trades Into Year-End 39:56 How To Trade A Moving Market

"I think the blockade is working." @WarrenPies on Iran and why a deal is more likely after the election

"The risk is that the Fed doesn't stop until they've broken something in the AI trade." @WarrenPies

$TLT is 7.2% above its October low. @TgMacro says the bond-market low is in; he’s looking to buy the dip in bonds.

.@qthomp: looking below summer lows in gold reminds him of the summer Bitcoin "good low" @TgMacro called. @TgMacro: break a new range, the downside is empty, and the market looks for its next excuse to get back on a bull market. @fejau_inc

VC-backed startups are ~25% of AI lab ARR. @WarrenPies on how Fed hikes could take a chunk out

Chances of a December hike collapse if this selloff continues. @TgMacro: the semi-chart is now officially broken. He does not know how they get another hike on the tape. @qthomp @fejau_inc

$SMH fell 11.21% on Nov 5. @TgMacro: “The semi-chart is now officially broken.”

The 10-year used to trade with oil. Now it trades with the Nasdaq. @WarrenPies on why that's a problem

Anthropic's revenue per dollar of compute rose from 57 cents to $2.08. @WarrenPies: "The AI trade is intact still."

Staples rose 14% in October. @WarrenPies says a market led by energy and staples is an unhealthy one

Diesel has been above $200 a barrel for months. @fejau_inc asks @WarrenPies what brings crack spreads down

"We really just took risk off." @WarrenPies on the midterms

NEW POD with 3Fourteen Research's @WarrenPies We cover: 🔸 Why Warren took equity risk off 🔸 Financials vs. staples flashing caution 🔸 Why the AI trade is still intact 🔸 Fed hikes: the biggest risk to AI 🔸 Iran blockade, diesel cracks and oil TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Warren Pies, Founder of 3Fourteen Research 04:23 Financials vs. Staples Flash Caution 08:35 Finding Signal in Noisy Markets 12:32 Fidelity, DAS London 13:43 Is the AI Trade Still Intact? 20:04 Who Finances the AI Build-Out? 26:18 Fidelity, DAS London 27:35 The Fed vs. the Investment Boom 32:04 Debt Issuance and CoreWeave's Bonds 35:12 Will the Fed Protect the AI Race? 37:51 How Fragile Is the Rest of the Economy? 39:44 Iran, the Blockade and Oil 44:55 Durable Changes to the Oil Landscape 48:15 What Fixes Blown-Out Diesel Cracks?

Europe is hiking into an energy shock.

Calling compute a commodity sounds bullish until you remember commodities don't set their own price.

Oil's peace premium is gone, Europe is hiking into an energy shock, gold broke $3,900, and the AI trade is unwinding. The week in under 4 minutes.

The most meaningless Fed meeting in a long time.

Leverage built the AI trade. Now the capex misses are taking it apart.