CIO @Lekker_Cap | Podcast @ForwardGuidance
Joined December 2018
- Tweets6.7K
- Following1.6K
- Followers31.3K
- Likes9.4K
Quinn Thompson retweeted
If you missed this week's roundup with @fejau_inc and @qthomp, here it is in under 4 minutes.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
More #ENERGY #EQUITIES are making it to the upcoming report.
I don't want to be a chart book economist. So far charts are leading me to signals in the sector.
But who else is reading "We will not hit Iran" as "We will hit Iran"... Which politicians words can be taken at face value?
Stay tuned for the Global Equity Markets report >> blog.techcharts.net
Quinn Thompson retweeted
The margin on refining crude into jet fuel is now bigger than the average cost of a barrel in ~20 of the last 24 years. @qthomp on the floor under oil.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
In past oil breakouts, hundreds of millions of SPR barrels capped prices. @qthomp: "That is gone."
"The question is, do we want to finish it off or let it wither?"
The answer is you have no choice. The global economy will wither as oil prices go to $150 then $200 if you don't do something about it. If you do do something about it, oil prices will also do that, but in hopes that a resolution and lower prices can then come sooner. The cinches on the trap continue to tighten by the day.
.@POTUS on Iran: "Last week, we took more oil out than we have ever taken out, even before the war... The question is, do we want to finish it off or do we just want to let it wither?"
Front running the next leg of war...
Shanghai back to a discount.....
Brent crude front month future contract versus Shanghai crude front month future contract in USD/bbl #oott
Quinn Thompson retweeted
While Brent crude call skew (premium on calls over puts) is beginning to rise again, it's basically nothing compared to March and even still well below the levels we realized during the July rally.
A proxy for options-expressed geopol risk premium.
(Brent 2M 25d risk reversal)
Cut one arm off to spare the other. Pre-war, Iran was ~5-6% of global crude oil production. Yes their economy is getting choked off, but so is the world's supply of oil, and strategically it makes sense for them to take it down with the ship. Crisis incoming.
We are closer to the top (in stocks) and bottom (in oil) than we are to the bottom (in stocks) and top (in oil)
Talk a lot in this week's episode about the nitty gritty behind the most asymmetric trade I have come across in a very long time.
NEW ROUNDUP
We Cover:
🔸 Oil–bond correlation flips: growth scare?
🔸 Brent's backwardation & roll-yield trade
🔸 Record Brent–WTI spread + export-ban risk
🔸 Drained SPR: no buffer left
🔸 Crypto's bottom signal vs. no liquidity
@fejau_inc @qthomp
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Markets In Turmoil, Round Two
01:25 Bonds Rip As The Nasdaq Drops 3%
02:29 Oil And Bonds Break Up
05:23 Why Nobody Wants The Oil Bull Case
09:45 Reading The Oil Curve
12:38 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London)
13:50 Brent–WTI Gap Hits Wartime Highs
16:33 Diesel, Cracks & Maxed-Out Refineries
20:30 The Only Way Out Is Through
23:13 AI Capex Doubts Meet Tighter Conditions
29:18 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London)
30:36 Midterms, Iran & No Plan
36:07 No SPR Left To Cap Prices
39:56 Do Shipping Costs Cap Oil?
44:19 Is Crypto Bottoming?
54:06 The Midterms Risk For Crypto
Quinn Thompson retweeted
NEW ROUNDUP
We Cover:
🔸 Oil–bond correlation flips: growth scare?
🔸 Brent's backwardation & roll-yield trade
🔸 Record Brent–WTI spread + export-ban risk
🔸 Drained SPR: no buffer left
🔸 Crypto's bottom signal vs. no liquidity
@fejau_inc @qthomp
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Markets In Turmoil, Round Two
01:25 Bonds Rip As The Nasdaq Drops 3%
02:29 Oil And Bonds Break Up
05:23 Why Nobody Wants The Oil Bull Case
09:45 Reading The Oil Curve
12:38 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London)
13:50 Brent–WTI Gap Hits Wartime Highs
16:33 Diesel, Cracks & Maxed-Out Refineries
20:30 The Only Way Out Is Through
23:13 AI Capex Doubts Meet Tighter Conditions
29:18 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London)
30:36 Midterms, Iran & No Plan
36:07 No SPR Left To Cap Prices
39:56 Do Shipping Costs Cap Oil?
44:19 Is Crypto Bottoming?
54:06 The Midterms Risk For Crypto
Back in late September and early October, our process was sending us a clear signal. If you're going to panic, be first. The oil supply / demand math paired with the broader macro and liquidity picture we have been forecasting is a rare concoction. We have spent every day since trying to invalidate our views and still cannot find reasons to do so. Posting the full excerpt of what I wrote.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
I am surprised by the lack of questioning around the "administration can and will support markets through midterms" narrative. That made a lot more sense to me over the last bunch of months, but not on the doorstep of the event.
What if the crisis comes in October while everyone is thinking it can't possibly happen until after.
"We have to come together as a nation and weather the burden of higher oil prices to make sure Iran never gets a nuclear weapon."
If you hear something along these lines in the coming weeks, don't be surprised. The administration has lost control of oil supply/demand and soon to be prices. I wouldn't be surprised if they are planning re-escalation of the war as we speak as an excuse for what will be oil prices moving higher regardless.
Don't forget that Israel has elections (which are meaningful for Netanyahu) on October 27th, one week before the US midterms (which are obviously high stakes for Trump).
Quinn Thompson retweeted
The consensus trade has been that markets stay supported into midterms. I think the shot clock on that view is running out. After November 3rd, Trump begins the last two years of his lame-duck term with a divided congress. While split congresses are normally good for markets, I wonder if that will be the case when it follows the most market-oriented/friendly administration ever.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
Feed the ducks when they’re quacking 🦆
