Sometimes I expose Gurus and sometimes I give my opinion on metals prices as a physical commodity trader. Not financial advice !
Joined November 2025
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🧵 High interest rates are supposed to kill Gold and Silver.
History says that’s only half true.
The rate that matters is the real rate: nominal rate minus inflation.
High rates + higher inflation = metals can rip.
High rates + crushed inflation = metals get wrecked.
Grab a coffee, and let's study this. 🤓👇
Anthropic growing 14x with positive cash flow is a signal that compute demand keeps rising.
That means more data centers → more copper, more silver in contacts, and more energy.
The IPO hype is paper. The real demand for metals is physical
Anthropic filed the IPO.
What I care about most is operating cash flow turning positive to $3.929B in the first half.
Weve been asking whether AI applications can actually pay back the infrastructure spend. This filing gives part of the answer.
First half 2026 revenue $16.286B. Same period last year $1.163B. Up about 1,300%, roughly 14x.
Operating cash flow went from a $1.513B outflow to a $3.929B inflow.
That doesnt mean the financing problem is solved. The company explained part of the cash flow improvement came from payment timing. Customers paid first, supplier bills came later. First half still had about $693M operating loss. Future compute spend isnt going away.
The tension I watch is customers pay as they use. Anthropic still has to lock multi-year compute ahead of time.
Commercialization is speeding up. Revenue and cash collection still have to keep up with the purchase commitments. A successful IPO can add funding flexibility.
This matters for the $IREN I hold. Earlier media reports said the two signed a multi-year cloud service agreement. If that gets confirmed, Anthropic running better helps market confidence in the customers ability to pay.
Anthropic is also pushing direct chip leasing with dedicated buildings to try to lower long-term cost. Independent cloud names still have a shot at catching some of the demand.
They destroy your purchasing power.
They take half of your income.
And now they want to take your free speech.
Soon they’ll freeze your bank account for a tweet they don’t like.
Owning Gold and Silver is no longer optional.
It’s necessary.
FED decision week.
My base case: no hike this week.
Markets are already pricing 90% odds of a hold, and I think that sets up a relief rally across risk assets — with Gold and Silver as the clearest beneficiaries.
Why I expect them to pause:
• Officials (Williams, Jefferson, Daly, Waller) have signaled no urgency for back-to-back hikes after September’s 25 bp move
• They want time to see how that hike is filtering through inflation, the labor market, and financial conditions
• Labor market is cooling but still stable — slow job growth, low unemployment, no hard-landing signal that forces their hand
• Preference for a measured path over 2022-style aggression; preserve optionality
• Chair Warsh has stayed deliberately non-committal, which markets are reading as consistent with a skip
Inflation is still sticky, so a rate hike in December remains a possibility.
But for this meeting, the path of least resistance is a hold.
Good setup for the metals this week.
Year-to-date performance:
• S&P 500: +12.4%
• Nasdaq: +12.2%
• Oil (WTI): +88%
• Gold: –8.5%
• Bitcoin: –7%
• Silver: –25%
The question is simple:
Are you still chasing the assets that already had a great year… or are you buying the ones that are currently on sale?
For me, the answer is clear.
Reasons I’m buying Gold at these levels.
When Gold corrects from an all-time high, it drops 36% on average. Right now we’re about 29% below the ATH.
Statistically, we’re very close to a bottom.
The chart shows a double bottom forming, historical support at $4,000 is holding, and RSI is at its most oversold levels of the year.
A Fed rate hike is already priced in.
I’m not scared — and neither should you be.
Silver.
Two weeks ago, with silver at $58, I said we’d hit $70 by November 15.
Fast forward to today: it’s sitting just under $54/oz.
Am I ready to say I was wrong?
Not yet.
Silver is at its most oversold RSI levels of the year. I’d be genuinely surprised if we don’t get a relief rally next week.
A rate hike is already priced in, which limits how much further we can realistically fall from here.
We’re still holding the $54 support.
This is not the moment to get scared.
