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Joined November 2024
VALUATION ALERT: Microsoft $MSFT is trading at a 22.9x forward (NTM) P/E, a level seen only three times since 2017. In all three prior instances, this was followed by multiple expansion.
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Mohnish Pabrai’s Q1 2025 moves are in and he’s doubling down on the old economy: 🔴 Exited $CEIX completely ($50M gone). 🔴 Trimmed $AMR by $12M (still holds $52M). 🟢 Added $5M to his top position $HCC. 🟢 New buys: $VAL ($61M) & $NE ($49M). 100% of the portfolio in just 4 stocks. All oil & steel. While AI dominates headlines, Pabrai sticks to hard assets.
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This is how the stock market selloff looks like when you zoom out
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How it feels to get paid $5.78 in dividends every 3 months meanwhile my stocks are down 40%
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Yeah I know…
BREAKING: The S&P 500 has now erased -$4.5 trillion in market cap since the Iran War began on February 28th.
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Gainify retweeted
$5 trillion wiped out. Everything is going exactly as planned. Stay tuned.
This is the start of something much worse.
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“The difference between successful people and really successful people is that really successful people say ‘No’ to almost everything.” — Warren Buffett
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This is how far the Magnificent 7 is down from their 52 WEEK HIGHS
MAG 7 drawdown from 52-week high: $MSFT −31.0% $META −24.2% $TSLA −23.7% $AMZN −18.7% $NVDA −17.2% $GOOGL −13.7% $AAPL −12.9%
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“It is better to be approximately right, than precisely wrong.” — Warren Buffett
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Druckenmiller thinks diversification is nonsense. Most portfolios make 7-8% from just 2-3 ideas while holding 30-40 positions. His fix: own the 2-3, size them up, watch them closely. “The present is already in the price. Visualize 18-24 months out.”
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“It takes a lot of hard work to make something simple.” — Steve Jobs
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NVIDIA $NVDA SEES $1 TRILLION IN REVENUE THROUGH 2027
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$NFLX revenue has quietly gone from $25 B to $45 B in just 5 years. Despite all the streaming competition, the company just keeps growing. If execution continues, the recent dip could end up being an opportunity.
🤝 Paid partnership
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"Given a 10% chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time." — Jeff Bezos
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This $HIMS chart is interesting. Revenue has grown from about $270 M in 2021 to over $2 B+ today, and projections continue to move up and to the right. Meanwhile the stock has pulled back significantly. Part of me thinks it might be time to start buying again… But I’m still watching leadership execution and potential regulatory risks closely.
🤝 Paid partnership
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If a potential S&P500 inclusion is your bull-thesis for $SOFI, that was never the thesis in the first place. The low risk, fee-based revenue IS the bull thesis. Financial Services revenue now accounts for 44% of the company's total revenue from only 14% in 2022. Revenue grew from $64M in Q4 '22 to $456M in only three years. That's explosive growth. It is a highly profitable segment with a contribution margin of 51% (!). Growth in this segment won't stop here. $SOFI's management expects Financial Services to grow another 40% in 2026.
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How Peter Lynch selects stocks: - Trailing PE < 25 - Forward PE < 15 - Debt/Equity < 35% - EPS Growth > 15% - PEG Ratio < 1.2 - Market cap < $5 billion Which company would you consider using this formula?
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Adobe $ADBE beats earnings and still printing elite margins. Net profit margin remains well above 30%. Can these margins hold for long?
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Adobe’s subscription revenue has now grown for 20 straight quarters, rising from ~$2.7B to over $6B. Yet $ADBE is down ~7.3% post-market on CEO departure news, despite beating earnings.
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$GOOGL Google is integrating Gemini AI into Google Maps, introducing "Ask Maps" for conversational place questions and Immersive Navigation, a major upgrade with 3D visuals, smarter route guidance, and real-time traffic insights 🗺️🤖
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