garybaumgarten

Every once in a while the tabloid that gave us the “Headless Body in Topless Bar” headline comes up with another worth sharing.

An 11-year-old boy died in an e-bike fire in a Bronx public housing project apartment this morning. Which leads, again to questions about how dangerous e-bike batteries are and how often they cause fires. According to the New York Times, lthium-ion batteries can enter a state called thermal runaway, where a chemical chain reaction causes internal temperatures to spike uncontrollably. This turns a small device into a violent, explosive fire in seconds. The New York Daily News reports that these fires produce dense, toxic smoke and spread much faster than traditional structural fires, often trapping residents before they can react or escape. Fire officials say, in today's tragic blaze, the e-bike was placed directly in the pathway of the apartment's exit door, cutting off escape. Unfortunately, New York City has seen more than its fair share of e-bike fires. The FDNY says there have been 401 fires caused by the batteries so far this year citywide, resulting in 74 injuries and six deaths. This is a massive increase. In all of last year, there were 292 e-bike fires in New York City, resulting in 51 injuries and one death. The FDNY is repeating its advice to New Yorkers today, strongly urging them to use only batteries and chargers certified by nationally recognized testing laboratories (such as UL) and to never block exits. But this is not a problem unique to New York. The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission has recorded at least 227 battery incidents, 39 deaths, and 181 injuries nationwide related specifically to micromobility lithium batteries. But New York City is disproportionately affected because of its high density housing and its bicycle food delivery ecosystem. Contributing to this problem; there are no uniform, manufacturing and safety standards. Many of these bikes/lithium batteries are imported to the United States. Is this an issue that should be on the national agenda? There's been a lot of frustration expressed about an ineffective Congress, exacerbated by partisan bickering. One would think this is one prudent issue that can be easily tackled across the aisle, perhaps helping to restore the public's faith in the legislative process.

Just days after a statue of the raising of the flag at Iwo Jima near the Quantico Marine Base was vandalized, someone defaced the 9/11 Memorial at Ground Zero in New York City with red paint. The good news is the NYPD was vigilant and officers quickly made an arrest. And the monument was quickly cleaned and is restored. But both are important tributes and remembrances. Such despicable and criminal behavior cannot be tolerated and those responsible should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.

A man is killed by security forces after attacking a guard with a knife at the Israeli Embassy in Belgrade in what’s being described as a terrorist attack. The threat level in Serbia has now been reset to Red.

This happened overnight.

A Brooklyn woman is charged with stabbing two Jewish men with a syringe in Manhattan. Cops say it was the latest hate crime targeting Jews.

Will Republicans try to overturn the results of the elections? It’s a question that’s clearly on the minds of many Americans. Yesterday’s New York Times/Siena University poll finds that about half of us are concerned this will happen. If you break down the results by party affiliation, you will find that it probably comes down exactly how you’d think. With an overwhelming number of Democrats contributing saying “yes.” Republicans who think this may happen comprise a distinct minority. But still, in the aggregate, this is on the minds of many voters as other polling suggests there’s little chance of the Republicans retaining the House. And the race for control of the Senate is closer than comfortable for Republicans. But are there indicators to suggest that this perception has some basis in fact? Actually, the answer to this question is, “yes.” Remember, the question here is intent, not necessarily the ability to overturn election results. But recent precedent lends credence to the concerns. We all recall that after the 2020 election, something happened at the U.S. Capitol. Somehow we all were able to witness the events of January 6 and still people reach different conclusions about what they saw. So we turn, instead, to the congressional inquiry. The congressional commission investigating that horrific day (do I show a bias by calling it “horrific?”) documented, not only events at the Capitol, but also efforts to pressure state election officials. The report reminds us that alternate slates of electors were proposed in several states. There was also a slew of court challenges launched by the Trump campaign. None established fraud sufficient to change results. But it gives us a hint into what might take place if the polling is correct and the Republicans lose, to use a word used by the president, “bigly.” More recently, we have seen White House proposals to change mail-in voting. The administration has seized, and continues to pursue, detailed voter-registration data from the states, purportedly to weed out unqualified voters. A hearing on the administration’s efforts to obtain California voter registration records and to have ballots from people it suspects are noncitizens set aside is scheduled in a federal court for Tuesday, one week before the midterm elections. The number of ballots targeted by the White House is not insignificant. The Justice Department claims that more than 20,000 people it believes are likely noncitizens have registered to vote and may have received ballots. It argues those ballots should be ordered set aside until citizenship can be verified. By the way, anyone who says there is no voter fraud is either mistaken or misleading the public. Of course it happens. Just today, the Justice Department announced the indictments of nine people who migrated here from other nations and allegedly illegally voted in Pennsylvania elections. But to suggest that such fraud is widespread and has changed election results would be based on facts not in evidence. An interesting challenge to election results is already taking place, even before the voting is over. It’s in Alaska where, I can reasonably predict, Dan Sullivan will be elected to the U.S. Senate. The problem is, I can’t tell you which Dan Sullivan. The Republican incumbent, or the Democratic challenger. The president has already directed the Justice Department to file suit if the Democrat wins, on the grounds that his entry into the race is designed to confuse the voters. Even if it’s deliberately confusing, the Supreme Court has already ruled that he is qualified to be on the ballot. The lawsuit, should Dan Sullivan the Democrat win, would reportedly seek to block, not overturn the election. Which, theoretically, could change the way the election is certified. People voicing concerns about post-election governmental interference maintain that the administration’s repeated claims of unfair election results undermines public confidence in the balloting. They argue that signals an appetite to initiate other legal challenges which might delay election certification and, by extension, delay the seating of successful Democratic candidates in Congress. But this could all be fear mongering. We, obviously, won’t know for certain what the Republican response will be until the voting’s done. When the results are in, here are some of the things I think we need to watch for: Will candidates or party leaders refuse to accept results? One of the great things about elections is that, generally, after a candidate loses, he or she calls their opponent, concedes, offers them support and then faces their supporters to publicly concede before them, the cameras, and God and country. Let’s hope this tradition continues but, if in measurable numbers it does not, I think we will see a continuation of certain political leaders erode confidence in the system. Will election officials be pressured to change certified totals or to jettison legally cast ballots? It happened in 2020. Will there be federal intervention in the election process? The Constitution ascribes the election process to the various states, not the federal government. Federal intervention would be another indicator of unacceptance of results. None of this means election results will be overturned, of course. And, while we are talking about potential Republican responses to an election which changes congressional majorities, it should be noted that not all Republicans necessarily subscribe to the president’s claims of election fraud. In face, many Republicans responsible for past elections, including the 2020 presidential race, are on the record strongly refuting such claims. I’ve done a short dive into research about the possible injurious results of claiming election fraud absent evidence that it substantially exists. There are a number of peer-reviewed papers, too many to cite here, that conclude that exposure to unsubstantiated voter fraud claims reduces confidence in electoral integrity. What’s interesting is that at least one of these studies, published in the Journal of Experimental Political Science, finds that fact checking doesn’t measurably reverse the damage. That leads us to a broader concern given the amount of misinformation and disinformation, some of it promulgated domestically but a lot of it coming from foreign actors, which shapes the opinions of American voters. All of this making the results of the New York Times/Siena polling troubling. No matter the outcome of the elections.

A scorned woman gets her revenge.

The NYPD says it has arrested more so-called “mole people.” That’s the name given to people seen emerging from manholes in NY City. What they are doing has largely remained a mystery, although cops say several suspects busted last month told them they were down there looking for valuables people have dropped on street level that have found their way into the subterranean city. What they are doing may seem fairly benign. But sewer gas, which can be toxic, is a real concern. And imagine if the manhole they choose for emergence opens onto a busy street. And although thus far, cops say they haven’t seen anything linking this unusual activity to terrorism, they say that possibility concerns them.

What’s this piece of art on my doctor’s waiting room wall supposed to depict? 🤣

Israeli media are reporting that Hamas officials have told UN representatives in Gaza they are prepared to carry out another October 7th-like terrorist massacre.

An inmate at Canada's highest security prison had fast food and booze delivered to his cell window by a drone. There are guards at the gate who screen packages for contraband. But there's little they can do when it's being delivered directly to the prisoner by drone. Police say that's exactly what happened at a Quebec prison. On the inmate's menu: nuggets, fries, dipping sauce and an adult beverage. Prison guard's union officials say it's causing them to be concerned that the next drone delivery might contain weapons.

Will the war in Iran resume after the Midterms? Speculation is rampant as Iran reportedly steps up executions of dissidents. garybaumgarten.substack.com/…

Have the Paris protests/riots been “hijacked?” A French journalist says, to some extent, the answer is “ yes.”

So many of my Michigan friends are struggling over who to vote for for the U.S. Senate. They are concerned about El-Sayed’s relative’s alleged ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and his open disdain for Israel. But they also can’t stomach voting for Rogers because of his close alignment with President Trump. A friend has come up with a solution that may catch on. He’s going to write in the name of his sister’s Yorkie, Daisy Mae. I mean, look at her. You can’t help but love Daisy Mae!

Nancy Pelosi becomes the latest member of Congress to receive a suspicious letter. It was delivered to her district office.

A group of Democratic lawmakers, led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, is suing the Trump administration claiming the White House is pressuring states to remove legitimately registered voters from the rolls.

The FBI says it has arrested a 17-year-old who, they say, intended to assassinate Texas Congressman Keith Self and conduct an ISIS-related terrorist attack in north Texas.

A major shift in an approach to end the Ukraine war has just been announced. The Kremlin just said that Putin is agreeing to three-way talks involving Russia, the United States and Ukraine. This follows backlash to his previous suggestion that talks should be between Russia, the United States and China, excluding Ukraine's participation. Let's see where this proposed change, however, actually leads. If anywhere.