The Greater Fool Report

$BTC I told you

Why the fuck would you short it when the stock has already dropped like 80% If I had all this information, even if I knew it was true, I would still not short into a fucking hole like this. Clearly, who is whoever is running this fund is absolutely retarded $CBRS $QQQ $SPY

Today is a buy the dip opportunity in Tech. I feel like we are reaching the peak escalation in this Iran war. It’s not just the US, the entire world is suffering. China is suffering, Russia is suffering, US is suffering, Europe is suffering. It is in everyone’s best interest to get this war over with. Iran is holding out until the midterms to inflict their pain on Trump. Post that, they HAVE to make a deal. By next year a lot of the oil leaving the gulf will be diverted to other routes and pipelines. The more time goes by. The less leverage Iran has. They will make a deal. Couple that will buy back window opening, I think we see a tech rally into year end. $QQQ $SPY $NVDA $MSFT $GOOG

What did we learn about $MRNA from the $MRK earnings? Yes, the 0.58 RFS looks shiny on a slide deck. But go look at the actual regulatory disclosures: Overall Survival (OS) is completely immature. The FDA has been ruthless lately about surrogate endpoints. If regulators look at this and say "cool story, but we’re throwing you into Accelerated Approval until people actually live longer," the entire bull thesis takes a reality check: Insurance companies are going to fight this tooth and nail. You think payers are going to happily shell out an insane, personalized-mRNA price tag without hard proof that patients are actually surviving longer? Expect brutal prior auths and red tape. Accelerated approval is a ticking clock. If they get stamped with conditional approval and that OS trend flattens out in a couple of years (which happens constantly in oncology), both MRK andMRNA are holding a massive regulatory bag. The supply chain is already a logistical nightmare. Moderna has to sequence, synthesize, and cryo-ship a custom batch for every single patient inside a 6-week window. Doing that high-wire act for a drug with a conditional asterisk next to its name is insane operational overhead. Surrogate numbers pump stock prices on day one, but survival curves are what actually build multi-billion dollar drugs. Until we see real, mature OS separation, this is priced for pure perfection that hasn’t actually been proven yet. And even if you assume the absolute best-case commercial scenario, the math still doesn't justify the hype: Under the 50/50 partnership, the most amount of revenue share Moderna can realistically pull in is ~$2.5B to $2.7B per year at peak (assuming a massive ~$5B to $5.5B total product run across high-risk adjuvant melanoma). Because this isn't an off-the-shelf vaccine where you print batches for pennies, custom sequencing, synthetic mRNA runs, and cold-chain logistics eat into the margins: Gross Margins: Even with automated cleanrooms, expect gross margins capped around 60% to 65% after factoring in direct sequencing, specialized reagents, and individualized batch handling. Operating Margins: After joint SG&A, oncology field force allocation, and commercial distribution costs are billed against the collaboration, operating margins will land closer to 35% to 40%. That leaves Moderna clearing around ~$900M to $1.1B in net operating profit annually. After standard corporate taxes (~15–20%) spread across their ~385M diluted share count, intismeran is only adding around $2.00 to $2.40 in EPS to their earnings—and that’s years down the road at full peak penetration. Moderna loses $8-9% per share right now. So that mean in 2 years they will still be losing 5-6 per share 🤮🤮 Sell. $MRK $QQQ $SPY $LLY $JNJ $XLV $AMGN

$MRNA Head and shoulder formation? Or breakout to all time highs?

$MRNA Selling resumes today. Yesterday it got saved because there was a MEME stock rally in everything that was junk. Become this stock is a meme stock and is included in a lot of momentum ETFs like $MEME and $MTUM it also benefited from that pump.

$XOM with a very bearish engulfing candle If we see a iran deal, this could drop back to $150 fast. $QQQ $SPY

$HAS looking extremely overextended How many more barbies can these guys sell. Overbought $QQQ $SPY

$BTC looks like a limp dick It just wont move. The volatility is dead. Its as boring as gold. $GLD $ETH $QQQ $SPY

$ENPH OMG this thing just cant find a bottom

$MRNA Swung 26% today It opened -2% and dropped to -10% only to rally +16% INSANE To put that in perspective. It only dropped 20% last Thursday when the data got released. It has been swinging between 10-20 daily for the past 10 days The volatility is insane in. $MRK $QQQ $SPY

$MRNA Head and shoulders being formed. Most likely will see this range between 200-180 until earnings next week. $MRNA $MRK

$MRNA This daily pump and dump is so obvious. Dump at market open. The. Pump it up throughout the day. And dump it next next day at open. This is a great stock to put on a strangle. Sell the 205 calls and buy the 180 puts. Print money.

$ARM with an inverse Head and shoulders formation. Breakout almost there. This can pump 20% very quickly

$MU Bearish to Bullish Reversal breakout coming! This is heading back to $1000

$MU looking for a 12% run to the downward trendline Tech very oversold. I see a technical bounce over the new few weeks. $NVDA $QQQ $SPY