Zachary Mineur, CFA CFP®

History suggests the period following the midterm elections into the first half of the pre-presidential election year is the strongest part of the four-year cycle for domestic stock markets. As I told @DugganSense in @USNewsMoney, despite the Blue-nami's big splash, the election outcome may still be among the least impactful of the various macro forces impacting equity market returns. money.usnews.com/investing/a…

Why is the market rallying today? My read: Dem control means likely institutional friction to data center build --> less crowding out of IG and Sov debt ---> lower rates --> better for real economy --> market likes that the capex train is slowing a bit.

Since 1949, the strongest stretch of the four-year cycle has run from the fourth quarter of the midterm year through the second quarter of the pre-election year, clocking a +20.2% average for the S&P 500 and +29.4% for the NASDAQ. That window opened on October 1. The weak spot that precedes it, midterm Q2–Q3, averaged −2.5% for the S&P; this year's version was, in Jeff Hirsch's words, “modest and seasonally normal.” More in The Chart Room: greenbackzach.substack.com/p…

Both parties are underwater: Republicans at −13 and Democrats at −21 in September's NBC News survey, the latter recovering from a record low in 2025. Neither party has been meaningfully above water in more than a decade, and the two lines have drifted lower together for twenty years. Midterms usually punish the party in power; this year there is little stored goodwill for either side. More in The Chart Room: greenbackzach.substack.com/p…

Payrolls rose just 29,000 in September, prior months were revised down by 60,000, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. Health care, construction and hospitality kept hiring while government shed 17,000 and the white-collar trio of information, professional services and finance lost a combined 26,000. The physical economy is adding jobs; the knowledge economy, for now, is not. More in The Chart Room: greenbackzach.substack.com/p…

The biggest of Big Tech has issued a net $207bn of bonds so far in 2026, more than the full-year net borrowing of France ($158bn) or Germany ($157bn), and almost four times Spain's. The AI build-out is no longer funded from cash flow alone; a handful of technology companies have become a meaningful source of investment-grade supply in their own right, competing with sovereigns for the same bond buyers. More in The Chart Room: greenbackzach.substack.com/p…

Most parents want to raise kids who are good with money. The problem is that most of us weren’t taught this stuff either. We figured it out as adults (sometimes the hard way) and now we’re supposed to pass down something we were never given. On episode five of the Dad Math Podcast, I’m joined by my sister Chelsea Mineur, our Marketing Director here @isqadvisors, to talk about the foundations of financial literacy and how to raise kids who are good with money. You can listen to the full episode now on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple Pods: links.greenbackzach.com/

For twenty-three years, revenue per software employee grew about $2,450 a year. Since 2023 it has grown roughly $38,500 a year *fifteen times faster* and now stands at $290,000. Whether that is AI-driven productivity or hiring freezes against rising revenue, the output of each remaining software worker is compounding faster than at any point since the dot-com era. More in The Chart Room: greenbackzach.substack.com/p…

Net margins for the S&P 500 outside the Magnificent Seven reached 13.6% in the second quarter, up from 10.8% at the late-2023 low, and consensus has them approaching 15% by late 2027. If that materializes, the earnings growth the market is pricing comes from the broad market, not just the leaders. More in The Chart Room: greenbackzach.substack.com/p…

Just 27 S&P 500 companies trade above 40× forward earnings, fewer than at the 2020 COVID low or the 2022 bear-market trough, and under a third of the 2021 peak near 90. Whatever this market is, it is not a broad speculative mania. More in The Chart Room: greenbackzach.substack.com/p…

In Field of Dreams, Ray Kinsella hears a whisper in his cornfield: “If you build it, he will come.” Everyone thinks he’s lost it, but he plows his corn and builds that baseball field anyway. The bond market has been whispering to us all summer. On CNBC recently… Kelly Evans: “I mean, Rick, it’s worth pointing out how unusual it is to have five-year yields rise 18 basis points in one session.” Rick Santelli: “How unusual is it to have zero interest rates for seven years around the globe? This is the price we pay for manipulating, and it’s a normalization.” He went on to say “I’ll give you something. Since 1980, the average yield on a ten-year note is around 5.5 to 5.6 percent. That should put things in perspective.” Rick is asking us, ‘Did we honestly think we could keep global interest rates at 0% for more than a decade with no snap back of the rubber band on the other side?’ Silly. Of course not. The move we had in 2022 was the first half of the normalization process. We are now seeing the second act. So yes, this is normalization, but why is it happening now? The narrative that it is all caused by inflation and Hormuz and Iran and that if the war just stops it will all go away is missing the forest for the trees. If you peel back the onion there are three main things I see driving yields higher. But first, let’s deal with inflation... Keep reading on Substack: greenbackzach.substack.com/p…

At roughly 0.8×, the S&P 500's PEG ratio is the lowest in three decades, not because prices fell, but because the growth assumption rose. The forward earnings growth implied by consensus is now about 25% a year over five years, the highest in the 30-year series and well above the 2000 peak. More in The Chart Room: greenbackzach.substack.com/p…

The index fell about 4.4% in September, its weakest month since Sept. 2008. At the September 29 low the loss was 5%, before a sharp rally on the final trading day pared it. Ten-year muni’s now yield about 4.0% and thirty-year about 5.15%, before the tax exemption. More in The Chart Room: greenbackzach.substack.com/p…

Last month the Fed raised its target range a quarter-point to 3.75–4.00%, the first increase since 2023, and officials signaled more to come. Across the seven hiking cycles since 1988, the S&P 500 slipped about 3.5% in the first two months after lift-off and then averaged a gain of roughly 9% twelve months out. Hikes that begin from strength have not, on average, ended the advance. More in The Chart Room: greenbackzach.substack.com/p…

Target date funds are a blunt instrument. They're better than nothing, but it does not take into account any of the unique circumstances, goals, or constraints that are usually factored in to choosing an investor's asset allocation. As the fund moves closer to its target year the allocation will automatically and gradually shift to a more conservative posture. This may be right for many investors as they near retirement but not for everyone. As I mentioned in this @wapo article by Maurie Backman, participants should reach out to their HR departments, log in to their workplace portals, or read the plan documents to learn what the default is and what other available options there may be. A professional financial planner can help set a fund lineup and deferral strategy that accounts for those unique investor circumstances. washingtonpost.com/business/…

While there is likely no shortage of grift and special interest favors in the back-office management and administration of the Trump account programs, that doesn't mean that it is a bad thing for the beneficiaries of the accounts. If more young people are reaping the benefits of investing early, receiving donations from wealthy individuals and corporations like the $6.25B pledge from Michael Dell, or receiving the seed grant for newborns from the Treasury without parents having to take a step to receive it, it is hard to paint that as being negative for the kids who will own those accounts. wsj.com/politics/policy/trea…