Sports analysis | NFL, NBA, NHL and Tennis. Projections posted before, graded after. Weekly wins highlights with the receipts to match.
Joined December 2023
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The thread gets its first test tomorrow night.
Buccaneers at Bears, Sunday Night Football, 8:20 PM ET at Soldier Field.
Chicago is 6-2, winners of three straight, playing its third straight primetime game. Caleb Williams has thrown one interception in five starts. Tampa Bay is 3-5 but getting healthy at the right time, with Emeka Egbuka and Tristan Wirfs both back at practice Friday.
We said Bills vs Bears in the Super Bowl. Tomorrow night the Bears hold up their end, or the thread takes its first punch.
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Semifinal Saturday in Paris. 🎾
Ben Shelton vs Luca Van Assche, 8:30 AM ET. Our model posted Shelton at 80% yesterday. He just beat Tommy Paul in three to reach his first Paris semifinal, and Van Assche is the last Frenchman standing in the draw.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud, 11:00 AM ET. Alcaraz saved two match points against Taylor Fritz just to get here.
Two favorites win, and Sunday's final is the one everybody wants: Alcaraz vs Shelton.
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1/ The Super Bowl is going to be Bills vs Bears.
Not a hot take for clicks. A thread on why the two best stories in football are also the two best teams nobody is pricing right. 🧵
6/ The paths line up too. The AFC runs through Buffalo's offense. And the only team ahead of Chicago in the North is starting Carson Wentz and ranks 31st in passing. Both of these teams peak in January, not October.
7/ Buffalo lost four straight Super Bowls in the nineties and has waited 30 years to finish the story. Chicago has not been back in 20 years.
Bills vs Bears. Allen vs Caleb. Who have you got?
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Tennis Edge model breakdown 🎾
Janice Tjen vs Robin Montgomery
Chennai WTA 250, hard, tomorrow
The model: Tjen 76%, Montgomery 24%.
Why the model sees it this way:
• The ranking gap. #75 against #593. That is nearly the whole calculation.
• When she wins, she wins clean. Her last two wins in the log came in straight sets, seven games dropped across both matches.
The honest warning: almost everything else argues back. On hard courts they are dead even, 49% each. And the 2026 records lean the other way: Montgomery is 16-8 this year and 13-5 on hard, while Tjen is 17-28 and 14-21 on hard. The model trusted a ranking gap over a form gap this week already, and it paid for it in Hong Kong.
The number says routine. The records say fight.
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Tennis Edge grading update: 2-2, with 1 void.
X Cirstea lost to Shubladze 2-6, 3-6. Model had her at 78%. The miss is on the record.
The warning was in the breakdown. Shubladze owned the better hard court win rate, 71% to 52%, and the form argued back. Form won.
That was also the last match of Cirstea's planned final season. She finishes 2026 at 42-18, with a title and a career-high No. 15.
We grade every call in public. The record is the pitch.
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Tennis Edge model breakdown 🎾
Ben Shelton vs Luca Van Assche
Paris Masters 1000, hard, tomorrow
The model: Shelton 80%, Van Assche 20%.
Why the model sees it this way:
• The ranking gap. #4 against #47, at a Masters 1000.
• The hard court gap. Shelton wins 66% on hard, 115 wins against 60 losses. Van Assche wins 38%, 20 against 32.
• The season gap. Shelton is 42-16 in 2026 and 34-10 on hard. Van Assche is 6-8 on hard this year.
• The log also holds a five set win over Alcaraz. The ceiling is not theoretical.
The honest warning: Van Assche is playing above his number right now. He beat Vacherot and pushed Musetti to three sets in his last five. And Shelton has dropped two of his last five, to Jerome Kym and Arthur Gea.
The serve should close it. The model is sure. His last five say keep one eye open.
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CASHED 💰
Panathinaikos vs Real Madrid Over 182.5 at +360. $20 CAD returned $92.00 CAD after a 115 to 112 overtime final.
Tennessee State vs Murray State Under 166.5 at +190. $29 CAD returned $84.10 CAD.
Last two tickets of the week. Both green.
Straight into the weekly wins highlight.
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CASHED 💰
Live unders, both cashed.
Jayson Tatum Under 33.5 points at -120. $80 CAD returned $146.66 CAD. Celtics 108, Magic 97.
Kyren Williams Under 2.5 receptions at -110. $50 CAD returned $95.45 CAD.
Straight into the weekly wins highlight.
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CASHED 💰
Two more from the same day.
Marlies vs Senators, Over 0.5 goals in the 2nd period at +120. $50 CAD returned $110.00 CAD.
Jaguars and Steelers 2 pick parlay at -123. $25 CAD returned $45.38 CAD.
Small tickets count too.
Straight into the weekly wins highlight.
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CASHED 💰
Jeremiyah Love Under 11.5 rushing attempts at -121.
$380 CAD returned $694.04 CAD.
Cardinals 33, Cowboys 30 in overtime, and the attempts still never got there.
Straight into the weekly wins highlight.
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CASHED 💰
Iona moneyline at +230 against NJIT.
$200 returned $660.00. Early payout received.
Underdog, outright, no drama at the window.
Straight into the weekly wins highlight.
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CASHED 💰
First set total games, Sakellaridis vs Shimizu.
Over 10.5 at +400. $55 returned $275.00.
Over 9.5 at +137. $170 returned $403.75.
The set went the distance and both tickets went with it.
Straight into the weekly wins highlight.
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CASHED 💰
Isaiah Jackson to score 18+ points at +270.
$50 returned $185.00.
Plus money. No parlay needed.
Straight into the weekly wins highlight.
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CASHED 💰
Luther Burden Under 70.5 rushing + receiving yards. Monday Night Football.
Bet it twice.
$140 returned $252.00 at -125.
$140 returned $256.67 at -120.
Same read, two tickets, both green.
Straight into the weekly wins highlight.
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