Wordsmith. Latest book: A Banker's Journey: How Edmond J. Safra Built a Global Financial Empire is out 8/30! https://xitter.cf/t.co/p7wWbcHJgP
Westport, Ct/New York
Joined May 2009
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My bit about the AI roll out is that, as with any new technology, the people speak (consumer uptake/political backlash/social license), and capital speaks. Capital can be willing to give $ on exceedingly generous terms and then turn on, well, a dime.
Americans are entirely unaware of this but in Europe, pure EVs are already at 30% of new sales and gaining about .75% of market share per month. acea.auto/pc-registrations/n…
In addition, across Europe operators of big fleets of vans, trucks and buses are electrifying rapidly
electrive.com/2026/10/21/bel…
Gasoline is about $10 per gallon in France.
Good morning with good news: France's September Full-EV sales reach 42% of auto sales.
Full-EV sales skyrocket 108% in September!
Full-EV and Plug-In Hybrid were 48% of auto sales!
Petrol-only cars were just 13% and diesel collapsed to 2.4%!
Wow!
aaa-data.fr/actualites/immat…
far better to subsidize demand destruction than to subsidize demand
"This year, [the etrucks in China] will save the equivalent of 141 million barrels of oil, as much as China imports from Kuwait.
Price caps are a temporary patch, but electric trucks are a permanent hedge"
🚛🚛🚛
#alwaysbecharging ⚡️
Germany was thought to be a stubborn laggard in the electric mobility transition. Look what seven months of very high petrol prices have done
If you run fleets with fixed routes, electrification is going to make more and more sense based on cost alone
"In a record-setting commercial truck deal, international shipping giant FedEx has placed an order for 2,000 all-electric box trucks from American startup Harbinger in a deal that’s reportedly worth more than $300 million" — an investment FedEx expects will save them $800 million in avoided diesel costs ($20k per truck per year!)
electrek.co/2026/10/03/fedex…
Follow this account. The EV sales coming out of Europe are insane. Years worth of market share gains in months. It is going to be $10/gallon gasoline and Chinese imports - not regulations-- that drives the e-mobility transition in Europe
The Netherlands reported 3,165 Tesla sales and 8.7% market share in September. BEV penetration is 52.6% and Tesla has 16.6% of this segment. 🇳🇱
• Market share is 523 basis points or 150% above the 3-month trailing average of 3.5%
• Highest market share of the year
• Tesla second best-selling brand
• Model Y best-selling car and Model 3 second best-selling
• 66% Model Y and 34% Model 3
• +58% vs. September last year and +52% compared to June the third month of the previous quarter
• Second best September ever
• Best month of the year
• Year-to-date +10% over same period last year
• Year-to-date is 67% or 8./12 of last year's total
When it comes to AI rollout, regulators/politics will have their say. And so, ultimately, will capital. Both can be remarkably fickle.
If this becomes more common, we may have to revise the narrative surrounding plug-in hybrids.
electrive.com/2026/09/18/vol…
The private equity complex invested vast amounts to have the policymakers who have given us these higher interest rates in place
wsj.com/finance/investing/ri…
tough to have a service economy without service workers, vol. 57, chapter 6.
nytimes.com/2026/09/14/us/ha…
that's one way to insulate your economy from the effects of $100/barrel oil
Extraordinary milestone reached. China, the world’s largest car market:
⚡ All Top 10 best-selling cars, August = NEVs
🔋 9 of the Top 10 were fully electric BEVs
⛽ The first pure petrol car? #13
It’s an extinction event for the combustion engine. #EV
carnewschina.com/2026/09/09/…
if i'm reading this correctly, the last time the yield on the 10-year was this was nearly 19.5 years ago?
The electric mobility transition in China is proceeding rapidly. This represents demand destruction for petroleum as a transport fuel in the world's largest auto market. 65% of cars sold in Augu
🇨🇳 China - August 26 - BEV Trajectory
45.3% BEV
19.9% PHEV (of which 5.3%p were EREV)
34.8% ICE
Trailing 12 months are:
37.1% BEV
20.4% PHEV (of which 5.3%p were EREV)
42.5% ICE
Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Ga…
Uruguay. A tiny market. No domestic auto manufacturers. Open to Chinese imports. Gas very expensive. Share of EVs sold has risen from about 10% two years ago to 64% in August. Gas station business now in run-off mode
🇺🇾 Uruguay - August 26 - BEV Trajectory
64.0% BEV
6.3% PHEV
29.7% ICE (of which 3.8%p were HEV)
Trailing 12 months are:
42.9% BEV
4.0% PHEV
53.1% ICE (of which 7.5%p were HEV)
Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Ga…
narrative violation alert: U.S. added a lot of carbon-free electricity capacity in the 2nd quarter
cleanpower.org/resources/202…
In England, France, and Germany -- Europe's three biggest car markets -- 44% of the cars sold in August had a plug.
🇬🇧 UK - August 26 - BEV Trajectory
29.8% BEV
14.5% PHEV
55.7% ICE (of which 12.7%p were HEV)
Trailing 12 months are:
25.8% BEV
12.9% PHEV
61.4% ICE (of which 14.0%p were HEV)
Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Ga…
