#NAFO Ukraine will win. Ex British army. old grumpy fella. Dogs are a man’s best friend. Russia is a terrorist state
Warwickshire
Joined June 2023
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OB The Grumpy Fella resurrected 🇬🇧🇺🇦 retweeted
Today is Battle of Britain Day, when we remember The Few, who defended our nation and fought against tyranny. We must never forget the sacrifice they made for our freedom. #LestWeForget #BoB85 #battleofbritainday
OB The Grumpy Fella resurrected 🇬🇧🇺🇦 retweeted
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 13 September 2025.
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: ow.ly/ZXa550WWe3q
#StandWithUkraine
ALT Russian Ground Forces likely seized between 450 and 500 sq km of Ukrainian territory in August 2025. This follows month on month increases from March 2025 to June 2025. It is likely that counter attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the vicinity of Pokrovsk, Kupiansk and Sumy contributed to the moderate reduction in the rate of Russian territorial gains in August 2025. RGF continue to use modified tactics, having moved from utilising mass to achieve territorial gain, to attacking with small infantry assault groups supported by artillery. This has likely contributed to the reported reduction in Russian monthly casualty (killed and wounded). Despite month on month decreases in Russia’s recorded casualty rates since March 2025, Russia’s significant losses continue. Russia has likely sustained approximately 300,000 casualties in the conflict so far in 2025, and approximately 1,080,000 casualties since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
OB The Grumpy Fella resurrected 🇬🇧🇺🇦 retweeted
MORE: Putin’s promise to codify Russian promises against future aggression into Russian legislation or the Russian Constitution is neither credible nor a concession, and there is no evidence to suggest that Putin would abide by any such law forbidding a renewed invasion of Ukraine after concluding a peace agreement.⬇️
NEW: US officials acknowledged that Putin has yet to demonstrate a willingness to offer the concessions necessary to reach a peace agreement. ISW continues to assess that Putin has not moderated his original war aims throughout the full-scale invasion and has offered no indication that he intends to change or compromise on these aims in any peace talks with Ukraine.
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
Russia will be unable to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast rapidly through force, as Russian forces have failed to do for over a decade. Russia could only rapidly seize all of Donetsk Oblast if Ukraine concedes to Putin's demand and withdraws from the remainder of the oblast.
Russian forces have historically thrown themselves into costly campaigns to seize fortified or urban areas in eastern Ukraine, a reality far from Putin's claims of rapid advances. Recent Russian advances northeast of Pokrovsk do not indicate that Russia can rapidly seize fortified or urban areas.
Russia continues to deny Ukraine's sovereignty and to demand the right to dictate Ukrainian domestic affairs.
Putin's insistence that any peace agreement must address Russia's perceived "root causes" of the war will make it difficult to reach a peace agreement as rapidly as Trump desires, given the complexity of the "root causes." Russia's "root causes" extend beyond Ukraine, and eliminating them would require substantial negotiations with NATO.
Putin's offer of a Russian law forbidding a future invasion of Ukraine is not credible because Russia has already twice broken previous binding international commitments not to invade, and as Putin has shown that he can freely change Russian law as he desires.
The details about Ukrainian security guarantees to which Putin may have agreed remain unclear at this time, but the Kremlin may be attempting to resurrect its demands about security guarantors from April 2022 that would have neutered such guarantees.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Brussels on August 17 to meet with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and to participate in a Coalition of the Willing teleconference
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk.
OB The Grumpy Fella resurrected 🇬🇧🇺🇦 retweeted
MORE: Putin's claim that Russian forces will inevitably seize all of Donetsk Oblast if the war continues is false. Russia could only rapidly seize all of Donetsk Oblast if Ukraine concedes to Putin's demand and withdraws from the remainder of the oblast. 🧵(1/3)
The Russian campaign to seize all of Donetsk Oblast has been ongoing since Russia's first invasion in 2014 and remains incomplete.
Russian forces have been bogged down in campaigns to seize multiple towns and cities in Donetsk Oblast since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, and Russian forces are still struggling to achieve the objectives of several of these campaigns today.
Seizing the remainder of Donetsk Oblast will very likely take Russian forces multiple years to complete after several difficult campaigns.
Russian forces have historically thrown themselves into costly campaigns to seize fortified or urban areas in eastern Ukraine, a reality far from Putin's claims of rapid advances. Russian forces undertook four notable campaigns in eastern Ukraine in 2024 into 2025 that illustrate how difficult it will likely be for Russian forces to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast through force.
- Russian forces first began efforts to retake Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast in October 2023 and have conducted multiple separate campaigns aimed at seizing the town in the nearly two years since. Russian forces are currently struggling to complete the encirclement or envelopment of Kupyansk from the northwest and have not yet seized the settlement despite 22 months of offensive operations.
- Russian forces began a dedicated effort to seize Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast in mid-June 2024. Russian forces started this effort not far from the positions that Russian forces held prior to the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. Russian forces seized Toretsk by August 1, 2025, taking 14 months to advance about 6.4 miles from the southeastern outskirts of Toretsk to the northwestern outskirts of Toretsk.
- The Russian campaign for Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast began in May 2023 after Russian forces seized Bakhmut (east of Chasiv Yar), and Russian forces intensified efforts to seize Chasiv Yar in April 2024. It has taken Russian forces 26 months to advance about 6.8 miles (roughly 11 kilometers) from western Bakhmut to the western edge of Chasiv Yar.
- Russian forces began efforts to seize Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast in February 2024 after the seizure of Avdiivka and have dedicated multiple efforts to seizing Pokrovsk through frontal assaults, envelopment, or encirclement – all of which have thus far been unsuccessful after more than 18 months.
NEW: US officials acknowledged that Putin has yet to demonstrate a willingness to offer the concessions necessary to reach a peace agreement. ISW continues to assess that Putin has not moderated his original war aims throughout the full-scale invasion and has offered no indication that he intends to change or compromise on these aims in any peace talks with Ukraine.
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
Russia will be unable to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast rapidly through force, as Russian forces have failed to do for over a decade. Russia could only rapidly seize all of Donetsk Oblast if Ukraine concedes to Putin's demand and withdraws from the remainder of the oblast.
Russian forces have historically thrown themselves into costly campaigns to seize fortified or urban areas in eastern Ukraine, a reality far from Putin's claims of rapid advances. Recent Russian advances northeast of Pokrovsk do not indicate that Russia can rapidly seize fortified or urban areas.
Russia continues to deny Ukraine's sovereignty and to demand the right to dictate Ukrainian domestic affairs.
Putin's insistence that any peace agreement must address Russia's perceived "root causes" of the war will make it difficult to reach a peace agreement as rapidly as Trump desires, given the complexity of the "root causes." Russia's "root causes" extend beyond Ukraine, and eliminating them would require substantial negotiations with NATO.
Putin's offer of a Russian law forbidding a future invasion of Ukraine is not credible because Russia has already twice broken previous binding international commitments not to invade, and as Putin has shown that he can freely change Russian law as he desires.
The details about Ukrainian security guarantees to which Putin may have agreed remain unclear at this time, but the Kremlin may be attempting to resurrect its demands about security guarantors from April 2022 that would have neutered such guarantees.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Brussels on August 17 to meet with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and to participate in a Coalition of the Willing teleconference
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk.
OB The Grumpy Fella resurrected 🇬🇧🇺🇦 retweeted
"If you time-traveled to the 80s and showed them this pic they'd ask you how many cities Russia had to nuke to get us to surrender so completely."
- a comment from r/military
OB The Grumpy Fella resurrected 🇬🇧🇺🇦 retweeted
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 15 August 2025.
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: ow.ly/cjNk50WF5W4
#StandWithUkraine
ALT It has been reported that Russian President Putin has reiterated longstanding maximalist demands regarding Russia’ illegal invasion of Ukraine, including for the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the four internationally-recognised Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson. Based on the rate of Russia’s incremental battlefield advances so far in 2025, it would take Russian forces approximately 4.4 more years to gain 100 per cent of the four Ukrainian oblasts’ territory. Based on Russia’s average daily casualty rate in 2025 so far, as reported by Ukrainian General Staff, 4.4 more years of war would lead to approximately 1,930,000 further Russian casualties (killed and wounded). This is in addition to the approximately 1,060,000 casualties Russia has already likely sustained since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, including around 250,000 killed or missing (presumed dead).
OB The Grumpy Fella resurrected 🇬🇧🇺🇦 retweeted
Every European state that tries to convince Ukraine that they should accept a security guarantee that falls short of NATO and relies on the word of Donald Trump--should be required to leave NATO and take the exact same "guarantee".
We can then see how much worth it really has.
OB The Grumpy Fella resurrected 🇬🇧🇺🇦 retweeted
You’re an active serving member of the United States Military.
You receive your orders handed down from the President of The United States.
You get on your fucking knees on camera to roll out a red carpet for an international war criminal wanted by the ICC and 125 countries.
OB The Grumpy Fella resurrected 🇬🇧🇺🇦 retweeted
The illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is continuing.
The map below is the latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 11 August 2025.
#StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦
OB The Grumpy Fella resurrected 🇬🇧🇺🇦 retweeted
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 09 August 2025.
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: ow.ly/NwQq50WCniu
#StandWithUkraine
ALT Russian Ground Forces (RGF) highly likely seized approximately 500-550 sq km of Ukrainian territory in July 2025. RGF seized a similar amount of Ukrainian territory in June 2025, following month on month increases from March 2025. The RGF continued to make tactical advances in Donetsk oblast, primarily to the north-east and south-west of Pokrovsk. RGF are continuing attempts to envelop the town and apply pressure to the remaining logistical routes to the town. Russian forces have now occupied nearly all of Donetsk oblast territory south from Pokrovsk. In the last two weeks RGF have not made any observable gains in the Ukrainian oblast of Sumy, which borders the Russian oblasts of Kursk and Belgorod. Continued losses and Ukrainian counterattacks have likely frustrated Russian intent to establish a buffer zone in the Sumy region. Reporting indicates elements of Russia’s 51st Airborne (VDV) Regiment in Sumy are refusing to follow orders,
OB The Grumpy Fella resurrected 🇬🇧🇺🇦 retweeted
All sides want peace. Tonight I will prove Russia believes this by murdering some children as they sleep.
OB The Grumpy Fella resurrected 🇬🇧🇺🇦 retweeted
Russian forces likely advanced to the western outskirts of Kupyansk and secured positions from which they can threaten Ukrainian ground lines of communication into the town. Russian forces are likely to use advances in these areas to support the envelopment of Kupyansk and pursue further advances west and northwest of Kupyansk.
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin met with US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff in Moscow on August 6, but concrete results from the meeting remain unclear.
Other Key Takeaways:
Trump may meet with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the coming weeks.
Certain Russian commentators are attempting to stoke schisms within the Trump administration, likely as part of a wider effort to avoid US sanctions ahead of Trump's stated August 8 deadline for peace efforts in Ukraine.
Russian officials and media continue to project an image of a strong and resilient Russian economy in anticipation of further US sanctions.
US President Donald Trump formally imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on India’s exports to the United States due to India’s ongoing economic cooperation with Russia.
Russian forces likely advanced to the western outskirts of Kupyansk and secured positions from which they can threaten Ukrainian ground lines of communication into the town.
The US State Department approved a $104 million Foreign Military Sale to Ukraine.
A Russian servicemember recently executed a Ukrainian civilian in occupied Donetsk Oblast in clear violation of international law.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar. Russian forces advanced in northern Kharkiv and western Zaporizhia oblasts and near Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
OB The Grumpy Fella resurrected 🇬🇧🇺🇦 retweeted
NEW: Helping Ukraine inflict battlefield setbacks on Russian forces remains essential to efforts to persuade Putin to reevaluate his position on the war and negotiations. ⬇️(1/3)
Private and public Kremlin statements indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to demand the entirety of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts before he will initiate a peace agreement. Reuters reported on August 5 that three Kremlin sources familiar with the matter stated that Putin's belief that Russia is winning and his doubts that US sanctions will have a significant impact on Russia are driving Putin's decision to continue his war against Ukraine. Two of the sources claimed that Putin's war aims take precedence over his efforts to improve relations with the United States and US President Donald Trump.
The Kremlin insider sources likely leaked this information in an attempt to obfuscate Putin's actual, more extreme war aims. One of Reuters' sources stated that Putin does not see the logic in stopping Russian offensive operations, as Russian forces are making relatively more rapid advances on the battlefield.
The Kremlin also likely intends for these leaks to Western media to advance its ongoing effort to break Ukrainian and Western morale. One Kremlin source told Reuters that the Russian General Staff recently told Putin that the front line in Ukraine will likely "crumble" in two to three months. The Russian military has a pervasive culture of lying and submitting overly positive reports to superiors, and this culture is likely also an issue at the upper echelon of the Russian military.
Putin has intentionally put himself in a position where he cannot present any peace settlement that falls short of his original war aims as a victory to the Russian military or people.
OB The Grumpy Fella resurrected 🇬🇧🇺🇦 retweeted
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 5 August 2025.
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: ow.ly/bCuk50WzRp0
#StandWithUkraine
OB The Grumpy Fella resurrected 🇬🇧🇺🇦 retweeted
Putin's desire to seize Ukraine's fortress belt indicates that he is willing to continue military operations in Ukraine long beyond Trump's stated August 8 deadline for peace in Ukraine and is ready to undertake complex, years-long operations. ⬇️
ISW previously noted that a Russian operation to seize Ukraine's fortress belt will be a significant undertaking, as Russian forces will have to seize Siversk and Lyman, advance through the Svyati Hori national park, and contend with the Siverskyi Donets River and Siverskyi Donets Donbas canal before Russian forces can even begin to threaten Slovyansk (the northern tip of the fortress belt).
Russian forces are currently expanding their salient southwest of Kostyantynivka (the southern tip of the fortress belt) in order to support a future attack on or envelopment of Kostyantynivka and the wider fortress belt from the southwest, but seizing Kostyantynivka alone will likely be a months-long effort. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger recently noted that it took Russian forces 14 months to seize Chasiv Yar and that Kostyantynivka is roughly three times larger than Chasiv Yar - underscoring how long a frontal Russian assault into Kostyantynivka could last.
Russian forces attempted to encircle Ukraine's fortress belt in Spring 2022, but their attempt culminated while trying to conduct the over 55-kilometer-wide encirclement.
Russian forces have conducted several successful, smaller partial envelopments since seizing Avdiivka in February 2024, but Russian forces have yet to conduct a successful operational-level envelopment of a significant Ukrainian defensive line.
ISW previously noted that it is unlikely that the Russian military can sustain a multi-year and multi-axis operation against Ukraine's fortress belt alongside its other offensive operations in Ukraine, particularly after three and a half years of degrading combat operations.
Putin appears confident in the Russian military's and economy's strength and longevity, however, given his August 1 endorsement of seizing the fortress belt and Russia's current rate of advance in Ukraine.
NEW: US President Donald Trump ordered the deployment of two US nuclear submarines closer to Russia presumably in response to Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev's July 31 nuclear threats against the United States. Trump stated on August 1 that he ordered American military authorities to position two US nuclear submarines "in the appropriate regions" following Medvedev's "highly provocative statements." Trump stated that he gave the order "just in case [the] foolish and inflammatory statements [from Medvedev] are more than just that." Trump previously stated on July 31 that Medvedev should "watch his words" and is "entering very dangerous territory." Medvedev responded to Trump on July 31 on both his English- and Russian-language Telegram accounts and threatened that Russia is "doing everything right" and will continue along its own path. Medvedev also alluded to Russia's automatic or semi-automatic nuclear weapons control system, referred to as the "Dead Hand" or the "Perimeter," in response to Trump. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio answered a journalist's question on July 31 about Medvedev's nuclear threat, stating that one cannot ignore Medvedev's statement. Rubio stated that Medvedev is not a "relevant decision maker," but he still has a role in the Russian government, so "his words are going to have impact" as a "provocateur."
Other Key Takeaways:
The Kremlin continued its nuclear threats against the United States before the ordered deployment of US nuclear submarines on August 1 – demonstrating that Medvedev's threats are part of a wider Kremlin nuclear saber-rattling campaign.
Putin reiterated on August 1 the same demands that he first laid out in June 2024 – further demonstrating Russia's uncompromising position and disinterest in negotiating to end its war against Ukraine.
Putin attempted to frame peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine as making progress while blaming Ukraine for slowing the speed of negotiations.
Putin's and Lukashenko's August 1 statements underscore Putin's continued commitment to his theory of victory, which assumes that Russia can outlast Western support for Ukraine and will be able to seize the entirety of Ukraine through slow and costly advances.
Putin and Lukashenko highlighted recent Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast and articulated Russia's desire to seize Ukraine's fortress belt, which ISW continues to assess as a multi-year effort.
Putin and Lukashenko projected military strength and economic stability as part of Putin's ongoing effort to convince Trump that sanctions and military support to Ukraine will not alter the outcome of the war in Ukraine and that Trump should abandon his efforts to resolve the war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be transforming Russia into a Soviet-style police state, likely in preparation for expected anti-war sentiment in the Russian population as the Kremlin prolongs the war in Ukraine and prepares for a future war with NATO.
Russia continues to field long-range drone innovations to facilitate its ongoing long-range strike campaign and impose greater civilian casualties on Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Borova and Lyman. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Siversk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk. (1/2)
OB The Grumpy Fella resurrected 🇬🇧🇺🇦 retweeted
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be transforming Russia into a Soviet-style police state, likely in preparation for expected anti-war sentiment in the Russian population as the Kremlin prolongs the war in Ukraine and prepares for a future war with NATO.
The Russian government has been slowly consolidating control over the Russian population’s access to independent information throughout Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian government is also slowly adapting its legal regime to increase the state's ability to repress and coerce Russians into conceding to state narratives and ideas, like the Soviet Union’s attempts at controlling the population.
NEW: US President Donald Trump ordered the deployment of two US nuclear submarines closer to Russia presumably in response to Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev's July 31 nuclear threats against the United States. Trump stated on August 1 that he ordered American military authorities to position two US nuclear submarines "in the appropriate regions" following Medvedev's "highly provocative statements." Trump stated that he gave the order "just in case [the] foolish and inflammatory statements [from Medvedev] are more than just that." Trump previously stated on July 31 that Medvedev should "watch his words" and is "entering very dangerous territory." Medvedev responded to Trump on July 31 on both his English- and Russian-language Telegram accounts and threatened that Russia is "doing everything right" and will continue along its own path. Medvedev also alluded to Russia's automatic or semi-automatic nuclear weapons control system, referred to as the "Dead Hand" or the "Perimeter," in response to Trump. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio answered a journalist's question on July 31 about Medvedev's nuclear threat, stating that one cannot ignore Medvedev's statement. Rubio stated that Medvedev is not a "relevant decision maker," but he still has a role in the Russian government, so "his words are going to have impact" as a "provocateur."
Other Key Takeaways:
The Kremlin continued its nuclear threats against the United States before the ordered deployment of US nuclear submarines on August 1 – demonstrating that Medvedev's threats are part of a wider Kremlin nuclear saber-rattling campaign.
Putin reiterated on August 1 the same demands that he first laid out in June 2024 – further demonstrating Russia's uncompromising position and disinterest in negotiating to end its war against Ukraine.
Putin attempted to frame peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine as making progress while blaming Ukraine for slowing the speed of negotiations.
Putin's and Lukashenko's August 1 statements underscore Putin's continued commitment to his theory of victory, which assumes that Russia can outlast Western support for Ukraine and will be able to seize the entirety of Ukraine through slow and costly advances.
Putin and Lukashenko highlighted recent Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast and articulated Russia's desire to seize Ukraine's fortress belt, which ISW continues to assess as a multi-year effort.
Putin and Lukashenko projected military strength and economic stability as part of Putin's ongoing effort to convince Trump that sanctions and military support to Ukraine will not alter the outcome of the war in Ukraine and that Trump should abandon his efforts to resolve the war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be transforming Russia into a Soviet-style police state, likely in preparation for expected anti-war sentiment in the Russian population as the Kremlin prolongs the war in Ukraine and prepares for a future war with NATO.
Russia continues to field long-range drone innovations to facilitate its ongoing long-range strike campaign and impose greater civilian casualties on Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Borova and Lyman. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Siversk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk. (1/2)