Asset manager, economist, entrepreneur, and writer. I tweet on global markets and economy, social justice, language, literature, arts. Preside @TransEconomics.
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Important warning I picked up in this fun episode: polling error tends to be correlated (if polls are overestimating support for Democrats in one state, it’s more likely than not they’re doing so in other (similar) states).
Brace yourselves.
Election Day special Odd Lots:
@tracyalloway and I talk to @NateSilver538 about polls, polling error, predictions, prediction markets, and why everything is pointing to Blue Wave podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
To me this is like someone trying to boost their GRE score with a crash course. They need to live a structurally redesigned life for decades. Some things must arise organically. And with the good will come bad.
Europe cannot assume it will always have access to the most powerful foreign AI models, Mistral CEO Arthur Mensch told us.
The continent needs to build its own computing capacity to ensure its security, he added.
vist.ly/5r6ab
ALT A man with a headset is speaking on stage with a multicolored background.
Genevieve Signoret retweeted
A Jan. 6 defendant — pardoned by Trump for threatening to "put a bullet" in Nancy Pelosi's head while driving around D.C. with guns/ammo — has been newly charged with threatening to assassinate D.C.'s federal judges.
Credit to @SeamusHughes for the find.
storage.courtlistener.com/re…
Para mí, Knausgård es uno de los cinco mejores escritores vivos.
¿Qué ocurre entre un escritor y su editor cuando un manuscrito empieza a tomar forma? Karl Ove Knausgård explora ese vínculo en este ensayo que compartimos por cortesía de Gris Tormenta.
letraslibres.com/literatura/…
The backlash Republicans are facing a backlash from their immigration enforcement tactics heartens me.
Don’t forget that markets are amoral.
As @robin_j_brooks reminds us in a recent post, “they routinely go long China or Turkey where democratic checks and balances don’t exist. Markets care about returns, i.e. growth, not quaint notions of democracy.”
And another judicial loss for the Trump administration. Long live checks and balances!
Judge Rejects Trump Officials’ Move to Challenge Alaska Senate Election nytimes.com/2026/11/01/us/al… via @NYTimes
A jewel of a post 👇
Quick thread on AI and productivity:
Lots of people say this chart shows AI is now showing up in the productivity data.
But I made this chart to argue the opposite: a trend that pre-dates AI and only shows up in the US doesn’t look like AI.
Here’s how I’m thinking about the data and underlying dynamics:
Genevieve Signoret retweeted
Sen. Bernie Sanders on what’s going on with Abdul El-Sayed, Haley Stevens and Democrats in Michigan: