Grant Wickes

The conventional thinking is wrong: Single-family rentals do NOT boom when home sales bust. Home sales are at 16-year lows, and yet SFR rent growth fell to a 6-year low due to slower leasing activity plus increased supply. Yes, the massive discount to rent versus buy keeps many people renting longer. But it does NOT create more renters. Record rent growth hit in 2021 when home sales were booming. Why? A rising tide boosts all ships. Strong home sales boost the entire economy, which boosts household formation and demand for all types of housing. When homes are selling, more people leave to buy. But those rental homes often get backfilled quicker and at higher rents. So if you're in the rental housing business, you should be cheering for a stronger for sale housing market.

Invitation Homes (large single-family rental REIT) had its earnings call last week. Lots of color on the SFR market. Takeaways: 1) Rents for new leases fell 2.2% in Q4. That appears to be INVH's first rent cut in 10 years, according to data compiled by @JBREC.

This was a good piece in the @WSJ that gets into why the bigger single-family rental investors aren't buying houses in today's market (and haven't been -- at any scale -- in years, actually). A few things this article tells us about SFR investors that most ppl don't know:

The single-family rental market is one of the most fragmented industries in the United States. Even the biggest players are rounding errors in terms of market share.

Multifamily or single-family rental? Which is better Here's a look at SFR rents from CoreLogic, and if this chart wasn't labeled "Single-Family Rent Index," you'd have no idea this was SFR and not apartments. The trends -- historical and current -- are that similar.

We've been making the point since late last year that the balance of power in the rental housing market has rapidly shifted to renters, and The Wall Street Journal said as much this week with the headline: "Renters Are About to Get the Upper Hand." Why?

Those who claim America is becoming a "renter nation" may be surprised to see the U.S. homeownership rate hit a 12-year high of 66% in Q1'23. Contrary to narratives, homeownership has been on steady climb for the last 7 years.