Happy to announce that I’ve passed Level III of the CFA Program!🎉
After years of putting my equity research on hold for six months per level to study (especially for Level II and III), I can now dedicate my free time fully to digging into microcaps and spin-offs.
Stay tuned!
Always nice to get management insights on a company you own, even if you can't speak to them yourself.
$4441.T is a solid business with great management. Emphasizing buybacks is important, as well as making investors aware of the disconnect between FCF and profit.
Tobila Systems meeting note summary out now
$4441.T
$SUP.L is one of the most misunderstood businesses in the UK microcap space right now with 4.3x EV/EBITDA and a 16.5% FCFY.
I went through every comparable regulatory precedent to assess the risk.
Base case shows 80% upside...
Link to deep dive in bio.
I’ve been digging deep into a microcap’s core risk, the UK vape regulation.
Fear of its potential impact has pushed the company to a 16.5% FCFY and 4.3x EV/EBITDA.
I’ve also built valuation scenarios to assess the potential downside.
Full deep dive drops Sunday.
I looked at $CBOX.L again. The FCFY went to 6.2% vs 4.1% last year.
Ambala integration went well, though the expansion still has to prove itself. EPS should catch up in the next years.
Reasons for the yield increase were mainly Macro and the ex-dividend date.
Old write-up in Bio.
$DNP.WA is an excellent business with clear competitive advantages, under pressure due to rising wage costs.
Because its stores are smaller and generate less revenue per employee, its margin suffered more than competitors’ margins.
Just posted a concise 2-pager on $DNP.WA to give you an overview of the business and what my current concerns are. Link in bio.
Just posted a concise 2-pager on $DNP.WA to give you an overview of the business and what my current concerns are. Link in bio.
Xeno Marugg retweeted
$4441.T Tobila Systems had a MEGA earnings report…
And I love how no one is talking about it on X
Shows how early we are!
Still crazy valuation for such a high quality, fast growing, high margin business that’s founder led 🤯
I will be doing a full review on my blog in next couple of days on how the thesis is developing
Disclosure. These are my personal thoughts, I and others I advise own the stock. Do your own due diligence
🙏
Investor confidence in $GLIBA appears to be returning after Q2, insider buying from John Malone and the CEO, and the announced dividend.
Also strong signs that management believes the company is currently undervalued.
Xeno Marugg retweeted
“Unlearning” is one is the most important skills to learn,
Especially with Microcaps.
We read Buffett and the greats when we start out,
Only to realize much later (at least I did) that they were talking about large caps.
Microcaps are different - capital raises, dilution, discovery, liquidity, institutional ownership, 10X or bankrupt, and everything in between.
Xeno Marugg retweeted
🚨 We may be looking at the rarest market setup in 50 years.
The S&P 500's four historic drawdowns since 1972:
– 1973 Inflation: -43%
– 1987 Liquidity: -30%
– 2000 Tech: -47%
– 2008 Credit: -55%
Each one was driven by ONE dominant risk.
Right now, all four are present at the same time.
1. INFLATION
A commodity supercycle. Energy, metals, agriculture all in multi-year base breakouts. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge has been above 2% for 18 of the last 24 months.
2. LIQUIDITY
The largest equity supply shock since 2000. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic raising ~$275B combined. Google flipping from $60B/year buybacks to $80B net issuance. Over $1 trillion of IPO and lockup supply hitting the Russell 3000 in 2026.
3. TECH
Semiconductors trading 73% above their 200-day moving average – the largest stretch since March 2000. Climax run signals across the AI complex. Micron, Palantir, SMCI, the SOX index, all showing the textbook O'Neil sell pattern.
4. CREDIT
Apollo, KKR, BlackRock, Blue Owl, Cliffwater, Partners Group – all gating redemptions on their evergreen funds in the last 90 days. The private credit machine is freezing in real time.
Never in 50 years have all four risks been simultaneously present.
But here's the part nobody talks about
While the AI Big 10 has gone vertical, quality stocks have been left for dead.
– Berkshire Hathaway: trailing the S&P 500 by hundreds of basis points
– Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Pepsi: trading at multi-year relative lows
– HEICO, Union Pacific, MSCI: making boring new highs while everyone watches Nvidia
– Healthcare vs. S&P 500: 25-year relative low
The last time this happened?
December 1999. Barron's ran a cover titled "What's Wrong, Warren?" – mocking Buffett for being a dinosaur, for missing the internet, for refusing to pay for growth at any price.
Berkshire was down 19% in 1999 while the Nasdaq was up 85%.
What followed:
– Berkshire +29% over the next 24 months
– Nasdaq -78% over the next 30 months
The setup today
Four historic risks stacked simultaneously, while the boring, durable, cash-flowing businesses that always survive these regimes have been treated like dead money for years.
The math doesn't get more asymmetric than this.
Quality stocks aren't out of style.
They're being orphaned.
That's when generational positions are built.
The boring stuff hasn't worked for a long time.
History suggests that's exactly the moment it starts to.
Xeno Marugg retweeted
KI frisst Software-Aktien (Adobe, Salesforce, SAP & Co)
Die grosse KAUFCHANCE?
youtube.com/watch?v=qTzpbCG0…
I have posted this reflection of my investment in $BATS on my Substack. It highlights:
what actually drove the investment,
what of my original write-up materialized,
and why outperformance doesn’t automatically mean correctness.
Read it here: open.substack.com/pub/hidden…
How attractive is $CBOX after the Ambala acquisition with a FCFY of 4.1%?
I’ve written one of the most in-depth Cake Box write-ups currently out there after the Ambala acquisition.
Read it on my Substack and let me know what you think: open.substack.com/pub/hidden…










