I spoke today with @biannagolodryga and @dansenor about where this war may be heading. There’s a clear divergence in war aims: the U.S. is careful not to commit to regime change, while Israel is formally pushing in that direction. Change in Iran is already underway- the supreme leader and much of the leadership are gone. The real question is what kind of change. If the regime survives, it may emerge even more radical. That’s one reason Israel will push to keep degrading Iran’s capabilities- until Washington draws the line. @cnnbrk

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President Trump can bring back the hostages. In recent days, I've spoken with sources across the Middle East, especially in Israel, about the status of the Gaza hostage negotiations. The process is stalled, and the prospects are grim. As time passes, the hostages’ chances of survival diminish. Winter is approaching, and they're enduring brutal conditions. According to a report presented to the Israeli cabinet, the hostages are suffering from severe hunger, with some reportedly losing nearly half their body weight. Now in their second year of captivity, they're subjected to torture and abuse, especially the women, as confirmed by previous rescues and exchanges. Israeli defense officials believe Hamas both wants and needs a deal, while Netanyahu's close advisors hold the opposite view. Qatar, which has been mediating, doesn’t see either side as serious about an agreement at present. Hamas has said it will only consider a deal if Israel will withdrew from Gaza and end the war—an outcome Israel cannot accept. But they will settle for much less. At this moment, there’s only one person positioned to shift the dynamics: the president-elect of the United States. Trump has the leverage not only with Israel, which is delighted by his new appointments, but also throughout the Arab world, where he commands significant respect. He is admired by most Israelis and many Arab leaders alike. Trump’s public and political standing after his victory gives him unique power to push both sides toward a solution. The Israeli defense establishment is adamant: this deal should not be jeopardized by making excuses, such as the Philadelphi corridor. Following Trump’s election victory, Qatar may now be more willing to exert pressure on Hamas. And Netanyahu needs Trump on many critical issues for Israeli security, including Iran. If Trump is committed, he could achieve what the Biden administration could not. It’s precisely this kind of breakthrough that can happen with Trump’s return to power. Though this possibility exists, it’s not a guarantee he’ll pursue it. But the opportunity is here, and people close to him should recognize it. This could be a landmark humanitarian rescue of a scale unseen in years—freeing countless people from unimaginable suffering and possibly setting the stage for a new vision for Gaza, free from extremist rule.