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ilari

@illerintwit

Working in Private Equity. Finland. SME Growth

Joined July 2013
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$HARVIA Based on "sauna" search data, growth was over 30% YoY on all weeks of Q4 in US. Despite tariff concerns and currency headwinds topline should be coming in strong. Japan even stronger and Europe showing return to growth.
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Image from ilari (@illerintwit)
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My two key observations from $CSU.TO earnings 1. Last time we saw this high org. growth (5%) was Q42023 (Where is AI disruption of legacy SaaS??) 2. The incremental margins are insane; on Q2 with revenue growing 376M expenses grew 191M those are ~50% incremental EBITDA margins
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Image from ilari (@illerintwit)
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Larger ish M&A for $CSU.TO: Volaris acquires Useall Software, a provider of enterprise management software to the electric utility sector, manufacturing, and distributors in Brazil. +200 employees +1000 clients +50,000 users Let's say avg. ARPU $500 this would be $25M rev
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volarisgroup.com/press-room/…
Useall Joins Volaris Group - Volaris Group

Useall Joins Volaris Group - Volaris Group

Toronto, Canada – August 7, 2025 – Volaris Group announced today the acquisition of Useall, a provider of enterprise management software solutions focused on the electric utility sector, manufactur...

volarisgroup.com
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Extremely interesting insights from ex Head of M&A at $CSU.TO (Vencora, part of Volaris operating group) ...AI, competition, churn, organic growth, multiples paid, bonus structures, disruption risk, investment modelling and many more... 🔥🔥👀 Tune in, more below 1/x
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Background of the person: "I was at Constellation for around four years. I joined as the head of M&A for a group of companies, a portfolio of businesses within Volaris. They decided to do a spin off and create Vencora. I led the M&A function for that group."
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$HARVIA is reporting on Thurs., let's look at their core growth driver US. Historically "Sauna" search volumes have been a nice indicator. 25Q1: search up 26% 25Q2: up 17% YTD: up 22% Takeaway Q2 looks slower. Last Q of Thermasol M&A contribution so total US growth ~40%. 1/2
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Image from ilari (@illerintwit)
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Harvia's Q2 2024 comp is strong but Thermasol M&A keeps figures looking very good this quater. Likely going to be mentions on tariffs, which don't affect Harvia a lot since US manufacturing asset but affects more cheap competition who source from China. My eyes will be on margins
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$TOI.V $CSU.TO doing a small add-on in Portugal; ARTSOFT offers over 40 solutions that clients can use as an integrated, single, tailored ERP management product for SMEs, large companies, and enterprises. 5.3% rev. CAGR 17% EBITDA Link in comments:
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totalspecificsolutions.com/i…
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So $HARVIA did not let us down Q1. As expected US showing very high growth in the middle of tariff turmoil... -> US grew ~59% -> Total Revenue ~23% -> Operating profit ~23% of rev. -> ROCE ~48% -> cash conversion ~74% Likely seeing more M&A in next 1 - 2 years...
ilari (@illerintwit) profile pictureilari@illerintwit16 Mar 2025
What gives me confidence on continued US G% for $HARVIA? Search volume for Sauna products has historically predicted growth decently. The delta will eventually become larger as consumers search for more specific products rather than "Sauna" Q1 so far 29% search volume growth🔥
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Image from ilari (@illerintwit)
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Breakdown for $CSU.TO $TOI.V as recently they are showing an acq. type we will likely see much more -> zombie VC-backed companies Placewise, global leader in SaaS for shopping centers 🇳🇴, Got seed funded in 2012-2016 (€11M), now VCs want liquidity Likely got 10c on the dollar
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Image from ilari (@illerintwit)
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RBC latest updates on $CSU.TO Topicus been leading deployment but CSU standing strong
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Image from ilari (@illerintwit)
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$CSU.TO with new one in Brazil 🇧🇷; Nydus specializes in HR Management Systems & Payroll tailored to SME. 79 employees Nydus serves construction, transportation, healthcare, business services and retail. Nydus Systems Informatica Acquired by Volaris Group - Volaris Group
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volarisgroup.com/press-room/…
Nydus Systems Informatica Acquired by Volaris Group - Volaris Group

Nydus Systems Informatica Acquired by Volaris Group - Volaris Group

Toronto, ON – March 18, 2025  –  Volaris Group announced the acquisition of Nydus Systems Informatica. Based in São Paulo, Brazil, with a branch in Recife, Brazil, Nydus specializes in HR Management...

volarisgroup.com
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Another key $HARVIA market APAC & EMEA (mostly Japan & China) showing nice growth. I'm projecting +30% (25) -> 15% (27) Here AOV likely 2x higher than Europe and margins also better with local China manufacturing plant ramping up. The Sauna Boom-Japan: saunafromfinland.com/sauna-a…
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Image from ilari (@illerintwit)
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@hkeskiva @JyrkiUurasmaa @TuomoSaa
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What gives me confidence on continued US G% for $HARVIA? Search volume for Sauna products has historically predicted growth decently. The delta will eventually become larger as consumers search for more specific products rather than "Sauna" Q1 so far 29% search volume growth🔥
Image from ilari (@illerintwit)
Image from ilari (@illerintwit)
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US/World is getting BLOATED and you get this for 19x PE, 15x EV/EBIT $NVO. ROTC % at 46% and guidance ~20% sales growth with operating profit growth of 20 - 25%, will be highly value accretive. How does this go wrong from these levels? From latest IR presentation below:
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Image from ilari (@illerintwit)
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Now $V at 29.5x ish and $MA 33.5x ish FWD so gap closing as expected and Visa has had better returns 17% LTM and Mastercard up 11% LTM. I think forward returns will be more even from here. Still prefer slighlty Visa.
ilari (@illerintwit) profile pictureilari@illerintwit13 Nov 2024
How do you justify $MA being traded at such premium to $V? 36.5x vs 27x FWD earnings...
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Image from ilari (@illerintwit)
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Favorite Finnish name $Harvia outlook strong. You get +30% ROIC business with projected 15 - 20% growth for EV/EBIT ~20x FY25. World's leading sauna/spa company benefitting of the long tailwinds of wellness and continues to consolidate industry (M&A). Their US Biz below: 1/2
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US has been the underlying driving force while EU took a big hit after covid and end of Russian operations. However, Europe has finally turned into growth in broader Europe Q4 2024 which means that Harvia will enjoy tailwinds in all markets 25. I have 18% ish YoY growth 25. 2/2
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Former Senior Financial Analyst Vela $CSU.TO on EU VMS TAM: "European market is still huge, we're not in year one, but I think that there's still a lot of room for us, like Eastern Europe and Balkan" "I think it's thousands, from being honest, but I think that there's... 1/x
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"...an element who sells a good business and an element to deal making. Everything needs to come together for the CSU way to work" "So sometimes that works against us, we lose to other buyers, but when there's a valuation rerating or capital dries up, we're still on the table."
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$TOI former exec. on Rule of 40% (EBIT% + Organic G%): "If you got 40%, they (Mark/ $CSU) want that you get 54% or 60% or whatever" "they don't tell you to cut down employees as long as you are at 40%, when your EBIT is going under 15%, they get a little bit more ballsy" 1/x
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On TSS & Topicus merger: "It was a clash when TSS and Topicus were merging in 2020. That's also one of reasons that Daan stepped down as CEO of Topicus because he couldn't fit into the culture" "At Topicus, its focus is always organic growth" "TSS is a buying company" 1/3
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Now that $TOI.V has been more active in Poland decided to have a look at one of their deals they did a couple years ago in Poland (Simple Sa). They acquired the company 2021 and have transformed the company to mid teens EBITDA % margins with double digit growth %. ops wizards 🧙‍♂️
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$TOI.V $CSU.TO doing exactly what they did last week; acquiring small profitable software assets in the 5-10mEUR revenue scale. Newest company Dolist; software company that provides email marketing, SMS marketing, and data marketing services. Not maybe as VMS as usual.
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@MichaelGielkens @CJ0pp3l @CompTortoise
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I think todays $TOI.V $CSU.T acquisition of Sofin Italia highlights exactly why they are able to do these 30% IRR deals. * Too small asset for PE * Too low growth for VC * If you don't want to go through a rigorous DD with a strategic, you sell to CSU Family @CompTortoise 1/2
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Image from ilari (@illerintwit)
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This is a bread and butter deal for them, 1mEUR EBITDA and HSD growth % Rev. CSU playbook is to keep the growth running but focus on profitability. With average 3y growth and cash conversion (FCF) if we believe in better margin a 3year payback is not too optimistic @CJ0pp3l 2/2
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