Now and then we had a hope that if we lived and were good, God would permit us to be pirates. ~ Mark Twain Family. Running. Finance. Arb. Dolphins.
On the horizon
Joined July 2012
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In the depths of winter, I finally learned that within me there lay an invincible summer. ~ Camus
Notes from Today:
"When the moment comes
you do not rise to the occasion
You fall to the level of your training."
I was fortunate to hear @nfergus speak last Friday evening — just hours before the US-Israeli strikes on Iran that killed Iran's murderous leader. His remarks were incredibly well received.
Sir Niall's central thesis is that the 2020s are not the 1800s or the 1920s — they're more like the 1970s.
Trump is best understood not as a would-be dictator but as a quintessentially American figure in the tradition of Presidents Jackson, McKinley, and Teddy Roosevelt - with a little P.T. Barnum on the side.
His risk appetite is extraordinary, and while his tariffs have been far less disruptive than economists predicted, the deeper structural challenge — what Sir Niall dubs "Ferguson's Law" — is real: any great power that spends more on debt interest than on defense is in decline. The US crossed that threshold in 2024.
On geopolitics, Sir Niall laid out the Three-Body Problem facing America: Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia all pull simultaneously on finite US resources. We've landed in Brzezinski's worst-case scenario — a genuine China-Russia-Iran axis.
Saturday's attacks may have helped to alter that.
The Iran strike, he predicted, would be regime alteration rather than regime change — surgical, swift, and nothing like Iraq 2003. It is the play from the recent strike in Venezuela: decapitate the offending regime and use the threat of continued decapitation to persuade the successor to embrace US geopolitical ambitions at the expense of Russia's and China's.
This may be good for US negotiating power but may not be the news the people of Iran are keen to hear.
But the Iran question, he argued, is a sideshow compared to the real danger: China intervention in Taiwan, what he calls the "Taiwan Semiconductor Crisis" that would dwarf the 1973 oil shock.
The solution? Trump needs a Nixon-goes-to-Beijing moment and a new détente with China before miscalculation becomes catastrophe.
His overall predictions center on AI CAPEX peaking, Democrats and their policies becoming competitive, the dollar weakening and gold continuing to remain strong, and continued Chinese strength.
His article in the @TheFP on Saturday echoes much of his presentation, ex- the South Park lyrics!
A remarkable evening with one of the great strategic minds of our time.
ALT Nixon and Trump at a Houston dinner, 1989, c/o The Houston Chronicle
I had the good fortune to attend the @TgMacro conference this week. It was one of the best I've been to in a couple of decades on the street.
The presenters were all world class: experienced, articulate, and thought-provoking. They got me looking at mosaic tiles I didn't know I had and pushed me to think of constructing the picture in new ways.
Bravo to @dailydirtnap @DoombergT @Alyosha745 @SantiagoAuFund @hkuppy @ttmygh, and @MRAfunds. Also, shout out to @maggielake for an excellent job moderating.
The presentations alone were worth the trip. The side conversations over coffee and meals were even more enlightening. I highly recommend following and subscribing to these fine folks.
It was also a real pleasure connecting with @nnzp1730 - another great thinker. I'm looking forward to continuing to share ideas, books, running exaggerations, and knee doctor tips.
Thank you, too, to Brent for a fun dinner and Bridgette for a great lunch. Good connections all around.
These connections are the hallmark of the type of person @TgMacro is. He's a high integrity super-connector with an old school code on relationships and hospitality. He's also an incredibly astute market observer and trader who lays out his thinking in a uniquely articulate and entertaining fashion.
I'm delighted to be in the ranks of his subscribers and more importantly honored to be his friend.
Can't wait for next year.
🫡
This is such a clear and powerful portrait of leadership. So many invaluable lessons here. Bravo @rustindodd #GoodToKnow #Leadership
Good look at leadership, Andy Reid style. From @rustindodd. nytimes.com/athletic/6210303…
How are you living life? What's your code? Perhaps belatedly, I'm trying to define mine. Here's one of the greatest declarations of all time:
“So live your life that the fear of death can never enter your heart.
Trouble no one about their religion; respect others in their view, and demand that they respect yours.
Love your life, perfect your life, beautify all things in your life.
Seek to make your life long and its purpose in the service of your people.
Prepare a noble death song for the day when you go over the great divide.
Always give a word or a sign of salute when meeting or passing a friend, even a stranger, when in a lonely place.
Show respect to all people and grovel to none.
When you arise in the morning give thanks for the food and for the joy of living. If you see no reason for giving thanks, the fault lies only in yourself.
Abuse no one and no thing, for abuse turns the wise ones to fools and robs the spirit of its vision.
When it comes your time to die, be not like those whose hearts are filled with the fear of death, so that when their time comes they weep and pray for a little more time to live their lives over again in a different way. Sing your death song and die like a hero going home.”
~ Tecumseh, Shawnee Warrior and Chief
GoodToKnow
This is a profound read. Take the time. BZ @TheFP
Ancient war stories become startlingly modern in classrooms filled with soldiers returning from battle, writes Ido Hevroni. thefp.com/p/reading-homer-af…
infamous rascal retweeted
“It is not the critic who counts, not the Man who
points out how the strong man stumbles or where
the doer of deeds could have done them better.
The credit belongs to the Man who is actually in
the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat
and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who
comes short again and again, because there is no
effort without error and shortcoming; but who
does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows
great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who
spends himself in a worthy cause; who at best
knows, in the end, the triumph of high
achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at
least fails while daring greatly, so that his place
shall never be with those cold and timid souls who
neither know victory nor defeat.”
- Teddy Roosevelt, April 23, 1910
#ManInTheArenaDay
Hey @oakley what’s up with the corrosion on the leash for my glasses? You are putting out a premium product and should be using stainless for these given outdoor / ocean use. Thoughts? At least check with a pirate like me to see what works.
This is really well done, Mike. Shared with my kids this morning, one of whom is speaking with a recruiter as his graduation date looms. BZ.
"High expectations attract young people hungry for purpose."
"If we want to find young Americans willing to fight for freedom, we must start by telling that truth."
Grit. Sacrifice. Honor. Patriotism.
These are the realities of military life and should be the foundation of a new military recruitment strategy to encourage more young Americans to serve. wsj.com/opinion/bring-warrio…
infamous rascal retweeted
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