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Founder, @AppliedQuantum | Former CISO, CTO, Big 4 Partner, #Quantum & #Cyber Entrepreneur | #QuantumComputing #QuantumSecurity #PQC
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An organization with strong PQC governance and no cryptographic inventory is not ready for the post-quantum transition, whatever an averaged score says. So I rebuilt my free PQC Readiness Scorecard around one rule from my PQC Migration Framework v3.0: your readiness level is the level of your weakest domain.
The scorecard rates seven domains from 0 to 5: inventory, governance, pilots and deployment, vendors, compliance, crypto-agility, and risk. You earn a level in a domain only when every question at that level and below is a Yes. Partial and Don't know never count. Every Don't know goes on a list of knowledge gaps for you to chase.
Crypto-agility also gets its own headline result. An organization can be far into its migration and still unable to change an algorithm on a date it chooses. I want that gap visible.
In the results you also get the dated regulatory obligations for your jurisdictions and sectors, a checklist for each domain's next level and a one-page board summary.
The scorecard is free and needs no account. Your answers never leave your browser.
Why I rebuilt it, and how to use it:
postquantum.com/post-quantum…
#PQC #PostQuantumCryptography #QuantumSecurity #CryptoAgility #Cybersecurity #CISO #RiskManagement #QuantumReadiness
A bank supervisor should be able to measure quantum-vulnerable cryptography across its whole sector without having access to any single bank's cryptographic inventory. Collecting the inventory should be the exception.
Supervisors ask three kinds of questions about a sector's cryptography. How many banks still use only classical key exchange on internet-facing systems? How many run a library affected by a newly disclosed flaw? How many depend on the same HSM firmware or certificate authority? Each answer is a sum. Each bank can compute its part from its own CBOM.
The FDA already works this way. It answers drug safety questions across 541.5 million patient identifiers without collecting the records themselves, because health care organizations run the same program on their own data and send back the results.
A supervisor that collects every bank's CBOM creates a ranked list of the sector's weakest systems in one place. Bloomberg reported that intruders intercepted the email of about 103 regulators at the OCC, the US national bank supervisor, from mid-2023 until the OCC found them in February 2025.
In my new piece I set out the methods, their limits and five things a CISO can do before the first request for a CBOM arrives:
postquantum.com/post-quantum…
#PostQuantum #PQC #QuantumSecurity #CBOM #Cybersecurity #BankingSupervision #FinancialServices #CISO
I now treat every quantum-beats-classical claim in biology as a simulation until the authors prove otherwise. Italian researchers reviewed 53 peer-reviewed studies, and 36 never ran on a quantum computer.
The review, by Manuel Arcieri, Paolo Zuliani and colleagues at Sapienza University of Rome and the University of Tuscia, appeared in Frontiers in High Performance Computing on 24 September. Of the 36 studies without quantum hardware, 25 simulated quantum circuits on classical machines and 11 used quantum-inspired algorithms on ordinary computers. Across all 53, 41 tested toy or heavily reduced datasets. Only 16 published both code and data.
All 40 studies that compared themselves with a classical method reported parity or better. The authors say none of them demonstrated a quantum advantage. The papers I checked also report losses inside. One team reports AlphaFold3 ahead of its quantum pipeline on structural accuracy for 5 of 23 protein fragments. In another study, standard machine learning beat quantum annealing in every two-class comparison trained on the full data.
Exactly one study combined quantum hardware, realistic-scale data, a classical baseline, and open code and data. Its own authors say the benefit cannot be put down to quantum behavior alone, since classical simulated annealing matched or beat their D-Wave annealers in several comparisons.
The test I would put to any quantum pipeline: replace the quantum step with a strong classical solver, keep everything else the same, and compare.
postquantum.com/quantum-rese…
#QuantumComputing #Bioinformatics #QuantumMachineLearning #ComputationalBiology #DrugDiscovery #Genomics #Reproducibility #OpenScience
A zero-knowledge proof that your vendor's software has no Log4Shell only shows that the affected log4j versions are missing from the vendor's SBOM. Whether they are also missing from the software depends on how that SBOM was produced.
TU Berlin's TrustBOM, presented at EDOC 2026 in September, is the fifth design I have reviewed for sharing facts about an SBOM without sharing the SBOM, and the closest of the five to something an enterprise could install. The vendor records a commitment to each release's SBOM on a public blockchain and keeps the SBOM private. Customers then ask for proofs that specific vulnerable packages are absent, at about 0.9 seconds of GPU proving time per package.
Like the four designs before it, TrustBOM assumes the SBOM is complete. A package the SBOM tool missed, or wrote under a different name, passes every check. The public code has a second problem: its verifier reads the identity of the program it checks from the vendor's own file, so a dishonest vendor could get any claim accepted. That bug takes a small change to fix, while completeness cannot be proved from the SBOM at all.
If a vendor offers you zero-knowledge attestations, ask how it knows its SBOM lists everything, and ask where your verifier gets the identity of the program it checks.
postquantum.com/security-pqc…
#SBOM #ZeroKnowledgeProofs #SoftwareSupplyChain #SupplyChainSecurity #ThirdPartyRisk #Cybersecurity #CISO #CBOM
I haven't seen a closer rehearsal for Q-Day in the web PKI than the eMudhra CA key failure that;s making noise these days. Chrome blocked six of the eight keys in 100 minutes. Fixing Linux, runtimes, containers and IoT will take years.
For 17 months, anyone with eMudhra's public certificates could compute the private keys of eight publicly trusted intermediate CAs. eMudhra traced the weak keys to a flaw in its key ceremony script (i.e. no quantum computer was involved). A researcher reported the problem on October 17 and proved control by signing a message with each key.
Chrome and Firefox moved fast because Google and Mozilla push blocklists to their browsers directly. Every other verifier needs a package, an install or a rebuild.
On October 20, RHEL and its rebuilds, SUSE, NixOS and Amazon Linux 2023 had only manual workarounds, and fixes for Node.js, Bun and FreeBSD were still pending.
Go programs get Go's new block only when someone rebuilds them. So do Rust programs that bundle webpki-roots, and container images with stale trust stores.
I expect IoT devices and appliances to be the slowest, because their trust store is part of the firmware. Fixing one takes a firmware update, which vendors ship only for models they still support. Then someone has to install it, and most people running these devices will never hear the name eMudhra. A device that doesn't check revocation will keep trusting the keys until the certificates expire, in 2028 or 2040.
Removing trust is the fast direction, since every trust store can already do it. Adding trust is slower. Let's Encrypt created its own root in June 2015 and kept another CA's cross-signature in its chains until June 2024, nine years later, so that older devices would accept its certificates.
On Q-Day, the owner of a CRQC could compute any RSA or elliptic-curve CA key, and one trusted classical key is enough to impersonate a site. The only clients protected that day will be the ones that already verify post-quantum certificates and have stopped accepting classical ones.
This quarter I'd distrust a test CA through the normal update channels and record when each class of system stops accepting it. Rolling out a post-quantum root to the same systems will take at least that long. And every client will also need new code to verify it.
postquantum.com/security-pqc…
#PQC #PKI #Cybersecurity
Coinbase, which says it holds about 12% of all bitcoin, has published what it needs from Bitcoin's post-quantum signatures. Every other large bitcoin custodian should publish its own list now, while Bitcoin's developers are still choosing the schemes.
Shashank Agrawal, who leads protocol security for Coinbase's on-chain development, asked for three things. A stateless signing mode, because Coinbase signs from independent servers in several zones. Output types that hide public keys until they're needed. And at least one scheme that looks promising for multi-party computation (MPC), which Coinbase uses so that no single machine holds a complete private key.
Two of the three already exist in drafts. SHRINCS, a hash-based scheme drafted by Bitcoin developers, allows stateless-only signing, at about 5.8 KB of key and signature per spend. Today's Schnorr key and signature take 96 bytes. BIP-360's P2MR hides public keys until a script is used.
Multi-party signing is the hard one. Threshold ML-DSA designs were published in August. A hash-based method appeared as a preprint in September. Coinbase expects full MPC for lattice schemes two to three years after its first post-quantum signing pipeline, which is due around mid-2027.
Bitcoin's developers can only weigh the constraints they can see. Coinbase described one custody setup. Multisignature vaults and HSM-only signers have constraints of their own.
I read Coinbase's list against the SHRINCS draft, BIP-360 and this year's threshold-signing research:
postquantum.com/security-pqc…
#PostQuantum #PQC #Bitcoin #Coinbase #Cryptography #DigitalAssets #Custody #QuantumSecurity
QuIC, Europe's quantum industry association, wants faster EU export licensing for quantum technology. I agree with most of its requests, but its paper gives no figure for how long licensing takes.
QuIC's members report lost customers and high legal fees. Some say customs officers sent files back because they could not verify a classification, which added weeks to a single shipment. The members have not said how long they wait, how often or at which step, so QuIC cannot show which of its requests would win back the most time.
The Commission's own annual report on the Dual-Use Regulation has no processing times either. France publishes an average of 30 calendar days for individual dual-use licenses. The UK publishes quarterly medians, 18 and 16 working days on its two licensing systems in the first quarter of 2026, and missed its own target. British exporters can see by how much.
QuIC's members do not need to wait for Brussels. They have the application and decision dates for every license they have filed since the EU-wide quantum controls took effect in November 2025. With medians and 90th percentiles by member state and destination, the Commission could see the typical wait and the cases that cost contracts. The Commission's Export Control Forum in Brussels on November 20 would be a good place to show them.
postquantum.com/quantum-poli…
#QuantumComputing #QuantumTechnology #ExportControls #DualUse #TradeCompliance #EUPolicy #QuantumIndustry #Europe
Quantinuum announced a quantum error-correction record on Monday. It is a great result, but in my view it does not bring a CRQC / Q-Day any closer. Despite what some comments and media proclaim.
On its Helios machine, the team protected one logical qubit, built from 73 physical qubits, through repeated rounds of error checking. It failed about five times per million rounds. Each time the team enlarged the code, the error rate fell about twelvefold on average. On Google's Willow chip in 2024, the error rate fell about twofold per step.
With errors falling that fast, a trapped-ion machine would need far fewer physical qubits for each error-corrected qubit. By my arithmetic, each logical qubit would need about 660 physical qubits in Quantinuum's layout to fail only once in a trillion rounds, roughly twelve times fewer than at Willow's 2024 rate.
Each round of error correction on Helios takes about a fifth of a second, against 1.1 microseconds on Willow. IonQ estimated last month that 19,397 trapped ions could recover one Bitcoin private key in about 26 days per attempt, assuming 200-microsecond operations. Rescaled to the speed of Helios's gates today, each attempt would take about 12 years. To finish an attack in weeks, a trapped-ion machine would need operations more than a hundred times faster than Helios's.
After this paper, I would lower the qubit estimate for a trapped-ion attack and leave the time estimate where it was.
My full analysis
postquantum.com/industry-new…
#QuantumComputing #QuantumErrorCorrection #PostQuantumCryptography #PQC #Cybersecurity #QDay #Quantinuum #CISO
MITRE, the US not-for-profit behind ATT&CK, rated eight enterprise technologies for post-quantum readiness. I expect US agencies to slip on signatures first, because vendors ship them in only two of the eight.
In a July review of public evidence, MITRE found post-quantum key exchange in general release in five of the six categories where it applies, including browsers, VPNs and cloud services. Signatures were in general release only in code signing and PKI/CA management. No category reached MITRE's top rung, which requires a general release running its post-quantum functions through a FIPS 140-3 validated module.
US deadlines for high-value and high-impact federal systems are a year apart: post-quantum key exchange by 31 December 2030, signatures by 31 December 2031. Vendors shipped key exchange first because an adversary can record traffic now and decrypt it later. A browser and a server can also agree on hybrid ML-KEM between themselves. Moving signatures takes the whole chain, from certificate authorities and HSMs to every client that checks a signature. Private CAs issue ML-DSA certificates, but MITRE found no browser that validates them.
MITRE also found no post-quantum hardware TPM on sale. Laptops bought this year on a five-year refresh cycle will still be in service in 2031, attesting with classical keys unless a TPM firmware update adds ML-DSA.
US agencies owe the White House their PQC migration plans by 22 October. In my analysis I list the four answers I would get in writing from every vendor on the signature path.
postquantum.com/security-pqc…
#PostQuantumCryptography #PQC #QuantumSecurity #Cybersecurity #Cryptography #PKI #FIPS #QuantumReadiness
Nobody can tell you what your PQC migration will cost before discovery. And if anyone quotes a confident number before the cryptographic inventory exists, they are guessing. Unfortunately, your leadership still needs a number the next year's budget.
So I built a free tool that produces the request you can defend before discovery. The PQC Migration Budget Builder asks for three things: the obligations that apply to you (33 regimes, from the EU roadmap and US federal rules to PCI DSS and supervisory expectations), rough counts of applications, HSMs and endpoints, and the share of the work your refresh budgets already cover. It returns an itemized year-one ask, an optimistic, expected and conservative range for the years after discovery, gross and net cost side by side, cash flow with a CapEx and OpEx split, the cost of starting one, two or three years later, and a draft board paper.
On the built-in example, a large EU bank starting in 2027, year one comes to $3.3M to $8.6M and the whole program to $22.6M to $59.2M. The cross-checks then show the estate counts are light for a bank that size, which is the first thing a CFO would notice.
It runs in your browser and nothing is sent or stored. I've labeled every assumption with its source, and you can change any of them.
Tool: postquantum.com/pqc-migratio…
How it works, and where it will be wrong about your estate: postquantum.com/pqc-governan…
#PQC #PostQuantum #QuantumSecurity #Cybersecurity #CISO #CryptoAgility #QuantumReadiness #RiskManagement
For most organizations, the date of Q-Day is the wrong planning input. A government, a regulator or a payment scheme has already set their post-quantum deadline. The question for the board is which dated obligation comes first, and whether the migration will be finished before it.
I rebuilt my free PQC Migration Advisor to answer that question for your own systems. You select the algorithms you run and where you run them, then add your sector, your jurisdictions and four time horizons. You get each algorithm's quantum exposure and replacement, timing checks based on Mosca's inequality, an action plan in four tiers, and the deadlines from 20 jurisdictions and regimes, each with its legal status and its source.
For a European bank, using the Bank profile with the EU and the UK selected, 6 of the 12 algorithms are quantum-vulnerable, and traffic sent before the migration ends must stay confidential until 2058. The migration would be finished around 2033, after the EU roadmap's 31 December 2030 date for high-risk use cases.
It's free, it runs in your browser and nothing you enter is collected.
How it works, with the full bank example: postquantum.com/post-quantum…
#PQC #PostQuantumCryptography #QuantumSecurity #Cybersecurity #CISO #Cryptography #RiskManagement #QuantumComputing
For most organizations, 2035 is no longer the date to plan PQC against. Several instruments published this year set their first deadline less than four months after publication.
Germany's national PQC guideline of 12 October gives administrations, companies and critical infrastructure operators 80 days to finish a preparation phase: responsibilities assigned, implementation plans in place and a first cryptographic inventory done. The guideline calls its dates urgent recommendations.
I have rebuilt my Global PQC Migration Timeline around every dated instrument I could verify. It now has 162 entries from 24 jurisdictions, the G7 and NATO, up from 68 in May. Between now and the end of 2030 it shows 56 dated PQC milestones, and two-thirds of them come from instruments published this year.
Time from publication to first deadline:
- Germany's guideline: 80 days
- the Dutch national quantum strategy: 87 days for central government
- US OMB memorandum M-26-15: 120 days for federal agencies
- Saudi Arabia's central bank: just over four months, binding on banks, finance companies and payment firms
The article covers what the timeline shows, how to find your first deadline and why regulators leave less and less time before it:
postquantum.com/pqc-governan…
#PQC #PostQuantumCryptography #QuantumSecurity #Cybersecurity #CISO #CryptoAgility #Compliance #RiskManagement
Regulators that set PQC deadlines for private critical infrastructure should also help pay for the migration. Singapore's Cyber Security Agency (CSA) now does, with a new grant covering up to 70% of the cost of quantum-safe pilots.
CSA launched the Quantum-Safe Kickstarter Grant on October 14. Owners of designated critical information infrastructure (CII) get priority, and they are the same operators CSA has told to file migration plans by March 31, 2027 and finish migrating by the end of 2031. Pilots run for up to six months, and applicants pay at least 30% in cash.
What I like most: every funded pilot has to report the time and resources it consumed and what went wrong, vendor responsiveness included. My own published cost model puts a large enterprise program at $16M to $70M, and I built it on assumptions because nobody had better numbers. Reports like these could replace them.
The grant has gaps. A six-month pilot that starts on November 1 ends a month after the CII plans are due. CSA hasn't published a budget, and in-house pilots are paid only after they finish, so smaller organisations have to pre-finance the work.
Most regulators publish dates and leave operators to fund the work alone. They should expect thin plans in return.
postquantum.com/quantum-poli…
#PostQuantumCryptography #PQC #QuantumSafe #Cybersecurity #CriticalInfrastructure #Singapore #CyberPolicy #CISO
IBM says its AI agents cut a quantum decoder design's estimated latency 52-fold for $26 of inference. It's real progress for chip design, but I don't expect fault-tolerant machines any sooner because of it.
The 52× figure, and the 204× IBM got with Claude Opus 5 for $299, are estimates from a synthesis tool on a reduced two-round version of the decoding problem. Nothing was measured on an FPGA. By my arithmetic from the paper's own numbers, a two-round decode on the best design takes at least 14 µs, while a superconducting processor produces those two rounds of syndrome data in about 2 µs. The best design is more than 40 times slower than the decoder IBM's engineers wrote by hand.
The result I'd watch is in the appendix, which IBM didn't mention in its blog. An agent wrote the RTL for IBM's existing decoder architecture and matched the hand-written version's cycle count, with about 80% more logic.
For the 11.5× cost comparison, IBM priced Opus at Anthropic's list rates and the open-weight GLM-5.3 at its own serving cost on a busy 544-GPU fleet. A smaller organization shouldn't expect the same ratio.
IBM faces several rounds of decoder retuning or redesign between Kookaburra, due this year, and Starling in 2029. Agents could make that work cheaper.
My full analysis: postquantum.com/engineering-…
#QuantumComputing #QuantumErrorCorrection #AIChipDesign #AIAgents #FPGA #HighLevelSynthesis #IBMResearch #OpenWeights
Germany has adopted the EU's 2030 and 2035 post-quantum dates in its new national guideline. The date that German boards should have in mind now is 31 December 2026.
On 12 October, the interior and digital ministries and the federal cybersecurity agency BSI published the guideline for administrations at every level of government, companies and critical-infrastructure operators. By 31 December, each of them should have a named owner with staff and budget, binding implementation plans with deadlines, a first cryptographic inventory and first migration steps under way.
In the EU roadmap, member states agreed to take first steps by then. Germany turned that into a list for every organization. The dates are recommendations, but their authors want them made as binding as possible by the end of the year. They asked the IT-Planungsrat, the federal-state IT council, and the critical-infrastructure partnership UP KRITIS to do that.
Section 30 of the BSI Act already requires most NIS2-regulated entities to include cryptography in their risk management, with measures that should meet the state of the art. For that standard, the BSI cites its own TR-02102, post-quantum schemes included. My reading is that a supervisor can ask today whether quantum risk is in an entity's risk register, with mitigation dates.
The Netherlands published its version a week earlier, for central government only, with a draft migration plan due by the end of 2027. Germany wants plans this year from companies and all three levels of government.
My full analysis:
postquantum.com/security-pqc…
#PQC #PostQuantumCryptography #QuantumSecurity #Cybersecurity #CISO #NIS2 #KRITIS #Germany
The core step of a quantum attack on Bitcoin and Ethereum now fits in under 900 logical qubits within Google's gate budget. In three published attack designs, the machine would shrink by zero to about 28%.
On October 13, Jieyi Long of Theta Labs posted an 893-qubit circuit to ECDSA Fail, an open benchmark for the point addition that Shor's algorithm repeats to recover a private key. A day later he posted an 874-qubit version. Both stay below the 1,175 qubits and 2.7 million Toffoli gates Google proved for its own circuit in March.
Narrower circuits exist, down to 676 qubits, but all of them exceed Google's gate count. The 676-qubit one needs about 150 times as many.
Pierre-Luc Dallaire-Demers, a co-author of the ECDSA Fail paper, put the physical saving at 25% for the IonQ, Oratomic and Google attack designs. I checked each one.
- Google: about a quarter, if every part of the machine shrank with the qubit count.
- Oratomic: nothing with its published codes, and at most 16% with a code sized for 893 qubits.
- IonQ: about 28% fewer ions, but longer attempts, because the circuit needs about 1.6 times IonQ's Toffoli gates per addition.
Nobody has compiled a full attack around either circuit yet.
postquantum.com/security-pqc…
#QuantumComputing #PostQuantumCryptography #PQC #QuantumSecurity #Cryptography #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Cybersecurity
Michael Saylor of Strategy just told the audience at DC Fintech Week at World Bank that Bitcoin can wait for quantum computers, then do "probably a 90-day upgrade." Nonsense. Out of 15 claims he made, 12 are wrong or unsupported.
The three I would agree on: nobody knows whether the threat comes in five years, 30 or never; new post-quantum code brings new attack surface; and AI-driven hacking is a real threat. The first one is an argument for starting now, and not to delay as he suggests.
He says upgrading early is like giving a baby a vaccine with a 1% mortality rate. Ridiculous anti-vaxer analogy. No such vaccine exists or ever existed.
He says the security community agrees quantum risk is more than ten years away. He cited no survey. In the Entrust/Ponemon study, 51% of practitioners expect a machine that breaks today's public-key cryptography within five years. Every other survey I found is even more risk averse.
As for the 90 days, Bitcoin's last consensus upgrade, Taproot, took almost four years from proposal to activation. Ninety days is enough only if the design, code and review Saylor says can wait are already done.
In July, Strategy put its name to a statement calling post-quantum preparation "a meaningful long-term priority." In October, its executive chairman told the World Bank to wait. A person whose wealth depends on how investors price BTC quantum risk is telling decisions makers not to do anything, citing no sources, giving no arguments, having no background to make any of those claims, and going against the prevailing opinion among cyber and risk professionals... And the worst thing is that many believe him.
Every claim, with sources: postquantum.com/security-pqc…
#Bitcoin #QuantumComputing #PostQuantum #PQC #Cryptography #Cybersecurity #DigitalAssets #QDay
Marin Ivezic retweeted
Our @projecteleven research paper, CUTS (Chained Uniform-sum Tree Signatures) just went live on ePrint.
Hash-based signatures have become the leading post-quantum signature candidate for Bitcoin and Ethereum, because of their conservative security assumptions that reduce to the security of cryptographic hash functions. The catch is that the stateless versions of these schemes (e.g. SLH-DSA) score poorly in terms of performance (signature size/signing time).
CUTS starts from our main criticism of prior stateful signature proposals (see: xitter.cf/projecteleven/status/2…). TL;DR state tracking is difficult, and a single state error, like a restored backup or two devices loaded from the same seed, creates a new vulnerability that can let anyone forge.
CUTS isn't a complete signature scheme; it's a new building block that slots into one. But the paper's analysis reaches well beyond CUTS: it gives an exact way to measure how much security a hash-based key loses when it signs more than once, and it works across a whole class of schemes, including Winternitz keys and FORS (the few-time component inside SLH-DSA).
Before this paper, that question was mostly answered one scheme at a time, ad hoc; now designers get a proven number instead of an estimate.
Applied to semi-stateful schemes CUTS makes the failure mode far more forgiving by degrading *gracefully* versus *catastrophically*. It can be applied in two ways:
* As a drop-in for SHRINCS's one-time key. The CUTS+C 48-cheap parameter set produces signatures of the same length, 530 bytes against 530, and verifies in slightly fewer calls. If a key accidentally signs twice, its proven security exponent stays at 41.2 bits or more, compared with 27.3 for the WOTS+C key SHRINCS uses. In other words, the same accident does less damage.
* As a key that is secure after two signatures, outright. The CUTS 128-smallest set keeps a proven two-use bound of 128.6 bits with 1,424-byte signatures. That is shorter than the FORS component of SLH-DSA-128s at 2,928 bytes, and roughly a quarter of the 5,777-byte stateless fallback SHRINCS relies on whenever state is uncertain.
We argued that most consumer wallets would never implement SHRINCS's stateful path safely, and that its fallback would become the default. CUTS therefore offers a practical middle path: signatures far smaller than the fallback, with no requirement that the wallet track state perfectly across every backup and device.
The cost is key generation. The 530-byte set takes 10,231 tree calls per key, compared with 513 for WOTS+C. That cost is paid once per key, off-chain, and it doesn't touch block space.
Bitcoin shouldn't have to choose between compact signatures and a design that forgives operational mistakes. CUTS is our contribution to closing that gap: hash-based security, built for the backups, restores, and failovers that real custody involves.
Original paper: eprint.iacr.org/2026/2455.pd…
One note: the security proofs in the paper are classical, a quantum random-oracle proof is still open, and instantiating CUTS inside an actual scheme would require further analysis. We may have more on that front soon :)
The reference implementation, test vectors, and the scripts behind every table will be released at github.com/p-11/cuts, and we welcome review.
Rutgers headlined its new IBM experiment as a step toward quantum computers that correct their own mistakes. The experiment never tested that, because it encoded no logical qubits and decoded no error syndromes.
On chains of up to 100 qubits on an IBM Heron processor, the team pitted random two-qubit scrambling gates against mid-circuit measure-and-reset operations. Near a 50/50 mix, the chain switched sharply from chaotic to controlled behavior, and the fitted critical point and exponent agree with noiseless simulations. No error mitigation was applied to those results.
According to the published supplement, each 100-qubit circuit at the transition interleaved close to 5,000 conditional resets with about 5,000 two-qubit gates. That is a serious stress test of IBM's dynamic-circuit stack, and the hardware did well. Error correction has to show encoded information staying protected, with logical error rates that fall as codes grow. I would leave every fault-tolerance timeline where it was.
The authors make no error-correction claim in the Nature Physics paper. Their test of quantum dynamics against classical noise favors the quantum model for chains of 20 to 40 qubits, by a margin they call subtle.
My full analysis, including what changed between the preprint and the journal version:
postquantum.com/quantum-rese…
#QuantumComputing #QuantumErrorCorrection #FaultTolerance #IBMQuantum #Rutgers #NaturePhysics #QuantumPhysics #QuantumHardware
IonQ is buying Elisity, a network microsegmentation company, for up to $1.3 billion in stock. It is buying a channel to CISOs. Most of the PQC capabilities those CISOs need first are still missing. And, for what IonQ sells today, they are mostly the wrong CISOs.
IonQ says it delivers "complete, end-to-end quantum security solutions." The public record shows something narrower. Through ID Quantique it sells PQC key establishment for network links (I found no FIPS 140-3 certificate for it). I found no product page, datasheet or named customer for its quantum security posture management offering. Elisity's cryptographic inventory is a roadmap item. I found no IonQ product for post-quantum certificates or code signing, although IonQ's own September paper models an attack on signatures.
The channel also leads to the buyers least able to use IonQ's PQC products. Elisity's published customers are mostly health systems, drug makers and manufacturers. Forescout found that 6% of connected medical devices and 16% of OT devices run SSH versions that support post-quantum key exchange, against 50% of IT devices. I expect those customers to buy segmentation, Elisity's existing product, to contain devices that cannot migrate, long before they buy QKD links or key-distribution appliances. The banks spending most on PQC do not appear among Elisity's named customers.
Elisity has a good record in segmentation. The quantum security case for the deal is the part IonQ still has to prove.
My full analysis: postquantum.com/security-pqc…
#PostQuantum #PQC #QuantumSecurity #IonQ #Cybersecurity #ZeroTrust #Microsegmentation #CISO


