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I always buy into strength and sell into weakness.
I like listening to the market and following its momentum. I know I’m not smarter than the market so don’t try to predict it in the short-term.
Price action was getting really bad on tech names I had. $SMH down -10% and $IGV down -5% this week alone.
If you’ve been following me for the past few weeks, I’ve constantly being saying to be patient in this market and size only small. We need yields to materially come down first!!
That is exactly why I had raised over 50% cash in my portfolio! Yes, I’ve always been red these past few days but not as much due to proper risk management.
$VRT is up 17% premarket.
And it's STILL 36% off its highs.
Q3 numbers:
• Revenue: $4.31B (+61% YoY)
• Organic orders: +100% YoY
• Adj EPS: $2.21 (+78% YoY)
• Adj operating margin: 25.2%
Then they raised full year guidance across every key metric.
CEO: "We are in the middle of the largest infrastructure buildout and it's accelerating."
Still a buy?
$GOOGL might be the most underrated chip company in the world.
OpenAI reportedly wants to buy Google's AI chips.
Think about that. Their biggest AI rival could become a TPU customer.
Last quarter:
• Revenue: $119.8B (+24% YoY)
• Cloud revenue: $24.8B (+82% YoY)
• Cloud operating income: $8.8B (up from $2.8B)
And the stock is still 21% off its highs.
Q3 earnings after the close today.
Opportunity?
Something is NOT adding up.
WSJ: the US has told Gulf states to prepare for a short, intense campaign against Iran after the midterms.
Yet:
• S&P 500: 1.5% from its all time high
• VIX: 17.5
• $SMH: up almost 6% in 2 days
Either the market knows this ends fast, or nobody is pricing it in.
Which one?
$HOOD just dropped 7.6% after hours on a record quarter.
• Revenue $1.42B (+12%), a record
• Options revenue +31%
• Equities revenue +41%
• Gold subscribers 5.2M (+34%)
• Crypto revenue -55%
The market isn't selling the quarter. It's selling the crypto hole and slower deposits ($15.7B vs $20.4B a year ago).
Record revenue and the stock still dumps. Buying this dip or waiting for crypto to come back?
SK Hynix just said its DRAM and HBM output is fully committed through 2029.
Not this year. Through 2029.
They're also returning $75B to shareholders this year.
A few weeks ago chips had their longest losing streak since 2006 and everyone was calling the AI top. $SMH is up almost 6% in two days.
If memory is sold out for 3 years, who's actually right here?
Seems like the continuation of the war is inevitable at this point.
BREAKING: The US has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a "short, intense military campaign" after the US Midterm elections, per WSJ.
Details include:
1. There are "a growing number of indications" that the US and Israel are readying to launch a new round of heavy combat operations against Iran, WSJ reports
2. The US Military is sending an additional Patriot system to Israel
3. US forces in the region have been restocking munitions and aircraft are preparing for strikes
4. "We may do another little Epic Fury," Trump said this week
Oil prices are rising on the news.
$SKHY INVESTORS REALISING WHAT THIS MEANS
$GOOGL has Q3 earnings tomorrow after the close.
-22% from its highs going in.
In Q2 they reported:
• Revenue $119.8B (+24% YoY)
• Google Cloud $24.8B (+82%)
• Cloud operating income $8.8B, up from $2.8B
• Search +17%
• Free cash flow negative $5.9B
Cloud is growing faster than almost anyone in big tech. The market just doesn't love what they're spending to get there.
Cheapest way to own AI demand right now, or a capex trap?
Nobody:
Aussie investors at 12:30am: "just watching the open real quick"
4am: reading the annual report of a company I'd never heard of at midnight
Who else is doing this to themselves?
The Fed starts its meeting today with CPI at 3.7%, Brent at $115 and the 10 year sitting near 5%.
Markets are pricing almost no chance of a hike tomorrow. What do you think will happen?
I spent a lot of hours this weekend writing this one, and I think it's the most useful thing I've put out so far.
A month ago I started selling. By the time semis $SMH dropped 6% in a single day, I was sitting in about 70% cash. Here is a quick little glimpse on what I talk about:
• Why I raised cash before the AI selloff
• Cutting losers early (without giving up on your thesis)
• Buy strength, sell weakness
• Why patience is a position
• Respecting the macro, even when you hate it
• The silver lining most people are missing
This is article #2 of my weekly series. Every weekend I go deep on the research and write one up. Next one drops Monday, so let me know if you have any suggestions.
$SOFI just reported Q3. Beat and raise.
• Revenue $1.37B (+44% YoY) vs ~$1.26B expected
• EPS $0.18 vs $0.17
• Record 1.2M new members, now 17.1M (+35%)
• Adj EBITDA $470M (+70%), 34% margin
• 2026 revenue guide raised to $5.04B
The real headline is 2027. They guided $6.4B revenue and $0.90 EPS, both well ahead of the Street.
$SOFI
$SOFI has Q3 earnings in 3 HOURS!
-44% this year and -55% from its highs.
But the business keeps growing FAST. In Q2 they reported:
• Revenue +40% YoY
• Members +35% to 15.8M
• Loan originations +69%
Options are pricing a ~10% move.
Is this the most hated stock in fintech right now?



























