Looking for new seat - macro / cross-asset. If you’re in NYC - shoot me a DM to connect!🍻 Substack: https://nitter.gq/t.co/LYfpKXgjyc
Joined February 2020
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Lol, exact same thing as 2016. Classic event vol crush. This why we set stops...
Hard to see this being a multi-week ripper like Trump 2016 though.
55%!!
I am well aware of event-vol risk and wouldn’t be surprised if the market is up 3% tomorrow. I watched every tick of the 2016 Trump overnight reversal.
But Hinojosa is not Trump. Short with a stop. Fine taking a small loss if Abbott rebounds, namely because downside is not priced in here!
$QQQ $GOOG /NQ /ES
80%!!!!
Nasdaq -5% day on deck
55%!!
I am well aware of event-vol risk and wouldn’t be surprised if the market is up 3% tomorrow. I watched every tick of the 2016 Trump overnight reversal.
But Hinojosa is not Trump. Short with a stop. Fine taking a small loss if Abbott rebounds, namely because downside is not priced in here!
$QQQ $GOOG /NQ /ES
Nasdaq -2.4%. Ok now starting to make sense. Pricing earlier was absurd, I was going insane.
Only risk to shorts (moving my stop a lot closer now) is Bessent QRA firehose.
/NQ
Trump isn’t on the ballot.
The Bush Republican Party is dead.
And rip to charlie while I’m at it
55%!!
I am well aware of event-vol risk and wouldn’t be surprised if the market is up 3% tomorrow. I watched every tick of the 2016 Trump overnight reversal.
But Hinojosa is not Trump. Short with a stop. Fine taking a small loss if Abbott rebounds, namely because downside is not priced in here!
$QQQ $GOOG /NQ /ES
Got short /NQ on the 6pm pop higher ~28420
Skewed risk-reward. Not enough people talking about a Texas Data Center Moratorium risk….
She’s up to 41% now!!
$IREN $FRMI imploding if she does.
(I’m agnostic, I’ll buy those names tomm if Paxton and Abbott somehow sweep)
One risk to keep an eye on... Hinojosa (TX) is currently trading near the highs vs. Abbott up to 33% now. Is she likely to win? No. But Lula was trading sub-30%.
Hinojosa has talked about pausing a lot of data center construction to allow for regulations to be put in place first. Texas by far the most amount of data center construction in US.
While this wouldn't change the long-term spending plans, it could certainly disrupt some smaller neoclouds / data center plays that are very dependent on a TX projects being completed soon.
$IREN, $CORZ, $CIFR, $GLXY, $FRMI some names with large exposure to TX.
Big-tech exposure: $GOOG, $ORCL, $META sizeable exposure in nominal dollars but not as much as a % of capex of course.
I think the trade would be waaay more interesting if the smaller names didn't all fall -50% or more since June, but still worth a look for a short-term hedge next week, especially if we get an 'all clear' rally post FOMC and post tech earnings.
And on the flip side... If these names happen to be at the lows come Tuesday, if skew is jacked... I am sure there would be a bullish event-vol-reduction move.
One risk to keep an eye on... Hinojosa (TX) is currently trading near the highs vs. Abbott up to 33% now. Is she likely to win? No. But Lula was trading sub-30%.
Hinojosa has talked about pausing a lot of data center construction to allow for regulations to be put in place first. Texas by far the most amount of data center construction in US.
While this wouldn't change the long-term spending plans, it could certainly disrupt some smaller neoclouds / data center plays that are very dependent on a TX projects being completed soon.
$IREN, $CORZ, $CIFR, $GLXY, $FRMI some names with large exposure to TX.
Big-tech exposure: $GOOG, $ORCL, $META sizeable exposure in nominal dollars but not as much as a % of capex of course.
I think the trade would be waaay more interesting if the smaller names didn't all fall -50% or more since June, but still worth a look for a short-term hedge next week, especially if we get an 'all clear' rally post FOMC and post tech earnings.
And on the flip side... If these names happen to be at the lows come Tuesday, if skew is jacked... I am sure there would be a bullish event-vol-reduction move.
The post-Midterm attacks remind me of Tariff-risk risk in Q1 2025.
Back to February 2025 they kept repeating “tariffs coming in April” (they were waiting on senate confirmations). The market ignored these comments in Feb, started to price it in March, but liberation day still blind-sided everyone.
It was a “wow… they’re actually doing it” moment.
What’s the chance a week after midterms we are all watching crude spike and vol explode and once again saying “wow… they’re actually doing it…” ?
Despite front-month flat-to-lower in the last 6 weeks, Mid-2027 oil continues to grind higher.
$USO /CLM7
First-half 2027 oil might offer the best risk/reward on the curve.
Saudi east-west pipeline shut down and oil barely moved. (Hopes of talks, after strong run, not that surprising).
But, hard to see a world where oil is below $60 early next year (where we were pre-war).
Whereas $100 is easy to see. The number 1 supply workaround infrastructure just shut down!
$USO $XLE /CL
