a new defi primitive— isometric replaces binary prediction markets with continuous curve derivatives.
Joined March 2026
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After months of brainstorming and building...
Users are now fully able to trade, for the first time in history, continuous curve prediction markets via Isometric at:
app.isomkts.com
We have successfully created and tested the viability of a completely new primitive model for prediction markets on devnet both mechanically and mathematically and Isometric now opens the doors to public use on mainnet!
To begin trading the flagship continuous curve market on Isometric, load your account with USDC, pick your range, and it's simple as that!
A positional NFT will be minted directly to your wallet representing your trade.
We will be meticulously monitoring usage over the next few days with this flagship market and will be hotfixing any issue (should they arise).
To say this is a momentous occasion would be an understatement— today a fundamentally better prediction market model enters the arena.
From conception to tangibility, Isometric formally introduces the continuous curve prediction market model to the world!
Please note: please do not trade substantially large amounts for a few days while we monitor progress as there is now live money involved, real USDC. We will be lifting suggested amounts and the involved liquidity over the next few days as we are confident things are now running smoothly.
the world's first continuous curve prediction model layer and the conviction bucket concept on top of it, we need an ecosystem that not only supports innovations provided by projects but also ones that have reward incentives that align properly with the strenuous amount of
Now that we have this core primitive live on devnet, let's get into where Isometric goes next.
In the immediate short term, we'll be wrapping up the devnet testing of the new market type, conviction buckets, on devnet and will be migrating it and deploying it to Solana's mainnet with an initial set of conviction bucket markets launched and seeded with liquidity.
After that, the core goal is to onboard liquidity provisioners into the platform via an incentivizing program— don't forget, liquidity providers on Isometric currently have some of the highest returns across the market due to the unique infrastructure overlap of prediction markets & DLMMs!
We're slowly expanding the Isometric prediction market ecosystem into something much larger than just our continuous curve model and with that comes marketing across various facets and venues.
We're introducing another prediction market primitive at Isometric: conviction bucket markets.
Built on top of Isometric's existing continuous curve architecture, conviction bucket markets are the infrastructure to translate previously unquantifiable data from binary outcomes into actionable prediction markets by changing what a bet means.
Binary prediction markets throw away information; yes/no outcomes collapse into a zero-sum game where closeness is penalized.
Most binary questions are coarsening an ordered axis that already exists beneath them. "Will the Fed cut in September?" hides a meeting calendar along the axis— find the axis and the question stops being binary and can be extrapolated into a position along a scale.
Isometric already prices ranges on continuous axes. A conviction bucket market is that same architecture pointed at a discrete one: a ladder market is a price market whose price axis is a rung number.
What changes is what a bet means in these new markets. Conviction becomes the shape of your position. One rung on a conviction bucket market = higher multiples. Spread across three and you've built an inherently-hedged prediction with insurance— more absolute payouts across outcomes with a lower multiple on each. Being one rung off still pays. Accuracy is graded rather than judged.
Now live on devnet, feel free to trade the first ever conviction bucket market on our devnet dapp at: devnet.isomkts.com/?market=G…
To get test USDC minted to your wallet, simply go to the in-app Isometric faucet on the dApp to trade with. Devnet SOL required.
Existing Anchor programs were upgraded for ladder support, the new payout infrastructure, settlement-aware withdraw floor and withdraw underflow fix.
iso_core: 9HC2NSwVDiDqVaNM7wupMLMtxyr958jbTGmcxcqEmKPE
iso_vault: 9mNmitVTdFsBvYuDb5nqo5unMnoHfB6CUq5tMz7LuHCE
iso_settlement: 2XWxKhB8yzAVphcnLwdLe7iuUa645r6dfSvMou8x2Zbn
We're introducing another prediction market primitive at Isometric: conviction bucket markets.
Built on top of Isometric's existing continuous curve architecture, conviction bucket markets are the infrastructure to translate previously unquantifiable data from binary outcomes into actionable prediction markets by changing what a bet means.
Binary prediction markets throw away information; yes/no outcomes collapse into a zero-sum game where closeness is penalized.
Most binary questions are coarsening an ordered axis that already exists beneath them. "Will the Fed cut in September?" hides a meeting calendar along the axis— find the axis and the question stops being binary and can be extrapolated into a position along a scale.
Isometric already prices ranges on continuous axes. A conviction bucket market is that same architecture pointed at a discrete one: a ladder market is a price market whose price axis is a rung number.
What changes is what a bet means in these new markets. Conviction becomes the shape of your position. One rung on a conviction bucket market = higher multiples. Spread across three and you've built an inherently-hedged prediction with insurance— more absolute payouts across outcomes with a lower multiple on each. Being one rung off still pays. Accuracy is graded rather than judged.
Now live on devnet, feel free to trade the first ever conviction bucket market on our devnet dapp at: devnet.isomkts.com/?market=G…
To get test USDC minted to your wallet, simply go to the in-app Isometric faucet on the dApp to trade with. Devnet SOL required.
Existing Anchor programs were upgraded for ladder support, the new payout infrastructure, settlement-aware withdraw floor and withdraw underflow fix.
iso_core: 9HC2NSwVDiDqVaNM7wupMLMtxyr958jbTGmcxcqEmKPE
iso_vault: 9mNmitVTdFsBvYuDb5nqo5unMnoHfB6CUq5tMz7LuHCE
iso_settlement: 2XWxKhB8yzAVphcnLwdLe7iuUa645r6dfSvMou8x2Zbn
isometric retweeted
WE'RE DONE WITH TESTING! Conviction buckets are now coming to prediction markets for the first time ever through Isometric!
Another primitive for Isometric!
Conviction buckets created, for the first time ever, with the logic and functionality tested within three layers:
- On-chain end-to-end: real ladder market was created, positions opened on various rungs, both claims paid via real programs. Fixed-point math matches independent TypeScript floats for both the winner and one-off neighbor. Winner paid more than neighbor (gradient, not a cliff). On-chain = reference now.
- Mechanics smoke test: solvency bounds, gradient falloffs, volume scaling; 5/5.
- Aggregate solvency: proves long-shot payouts > cost while the vault remains within the buffer zone; 6/6.
Final testing for edge cases now and we'll soon be adding them to Isometric for the introduction of V2!
Conviction buckets for all markets coming soon in Isometric V2.
Inherent hedging for prediction markets via extrapolation of the underlying information in conventional markets— payouts are no longer 0 or 100; build your curve on any market and get paid if the outcome is anywhere in that curve.
Isometric allows users to bet ranges on not just numeric information markets but every information market with our V2 upgrade!
Isometric V2 is on the horizon. A simplified version of the previous Isometric app that is designed to encapsulate the principles and model we created with continuous curve prediction markets while ushering in a more user-friendly and familiar prediction landscape that users are accustomed to.
We're wrapping up the V2 design right now along with a new market type: conversion of direct yes/no markets (e.g. "Will X win the World Cup?") via a new primitive that utilizes Isometric's standard model: conviction buckets!
We're excited to share more information on not only V2 but the creation and ideation of conviction buckets— stay tuned for more information and demos!
We'll be on with @MCGlive at 1:15 PM EST to talk about all things Isometric: range-based prediction markets, new DeFi primitives, and much more!
nitter.gq/i/broadcasts/1nxeLLERw…
Today on MCG
12:00 - $GITLAWB @gitlawb w/@kevincodex
12:30 - $SURPLUS @AskSurplus w/@mac_eth
1:15 - $ISO @isometricmkts
Reviewing $STRC market risk
GameFi Tokens
See you guys soon!
We’ll be running through, and demoing, some new stuff regarding the Isometric continuous curve model on @MCGlive this Thursday!
This Week on MCG, times in US EDT
Recordings: youtube.com/@MCG_live
Stream notes: @MCGAlpha
Monday 6/15
12:30 - MCG Trader Radio w/@ChillTRD
Tuesday 6/16
12:30 - $QST @qu_stream w/@arataishiki @adriangneal
1:15 - $NOOK @nookplot w/@basedmedical
Wednesday 6/17
12:30 - $PUMPCADE @cademarket w/@poppunkonchain
1:15 - $PEAK @pabloberlangab w/@pabloberlangab
Thursday 6/18
12:00 - $GITLAWB @gitlawb w/@kevincodex
12:30 - $SURPLUS @AskSurplus w/@mac_eth
1:15 - $ISO @isometricmkts
Friday 6/19
12:30 - Market Research ft @blockworksres @Blockworks w/@0xMetaLight
The first ever continuous curve prediction market has officially been created! Trading commences on this market within the next day, we'll be creating more markets today for other substantive topics as well— currently getting the frontend migrated over.
Market PDA: 2BLUH66CcKjch2R2UvwUmfTA22L8jaiwL7YTw9tQTab5
Vault Auth PDA: h9V619Lh3MGBuPZVQNHYc2jq9Joc6AahC3dB1L9LtCj
Vault USDC ATA: 5kwA9e9tVM2CGHPTMCsktv7s8rMcRQekDLDzM3u8ZSEx
iso_vault PDA: 3PEr6dMstMo2YDc2H8LeRpEcaxgLsu4bPz3HJm5w2dTg
LP USDC ATA: 9PYgc3WQYhP6QU7cVjLmZBYUHPtPbvXaui8FsLc8wcP9
Expiry: June 30, 2026 23:59:59 UTC
Range: $60k-$100k, 20 buckets
Fee: 30 bps (0.3%)
Isometric is now on Solana's mainnet.
IDs:
iso_vault: 4eEvAzvEUrUbdBDAdohdUh6ZBb3KB5z6wk4CYnG656wc (Slot: 422555105)
Link: solscan.io/account/4eEvAzvEU…
iso_core: E14sbRqmZGqXkC8WMxZaLgRbgH34rTfWUoKzyVozbAS4 (Slot: 422555130)
Link: solscan.io/account/E14sbRqmZ…
iso_settlement: SRtdLVQCp8TFincQnQCrvZFrAeGSVwzXmYkhrETs1dX (Slot: 422555203)
Link: solscan.io/account/SRtdLVQCp…
Months of building, months of theory-crafting, months of overhauling and cross-examining models— a completely new primitive for prediction markets has landed successfully.
The Isometric devnet protocol has been moved to:
devnet.isomkts.com
The previous devnet hosting on app.isomkts.com is now reserved for the mainnet migration.
Users will be able to still utilize the protocol on Solana's devnet for learning and educational purposes.
Final plumbing is finished for the migration to mainnet including:
- Mobile optimization for viewing/trading/LPing on the Isometric platform.
- Liquidity frontend optimizations for LPing (to finalize the Vault V3.1 architecture); the biggest hurdle as this was a complete Anchor program rewrite and overhaul— everything works end-to-end with the new program on devnet.
