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$TRLV Q3 2026 earnings: Trulieve's medical sales beat its plan, while tax liabilities grow Trulieve, the largest US medical cannabis retailer, grew its continuing medical stores while its separated mixed-use business weighed on results. Medical-only sales rose 4% from last quarter to $230 million and gross margin reached 64%, beating the company's flat outlook as Georgia patient traffic multiplied. Chief executive Kim Rivers said Trulieve is entering an accelerated growth cycle, and lower cash taxes lifted operating cash flow to $74 million. • Medical-only revenue: $𝟐𝟑𝟎.𝟐𝐌 (+3.6% from last quarter (beat ~$222M plan)) • Medical-only gross margin: 𝟔𝟒.𝟑% (63.0% last quarter) • Operating cash flow: $𝟕𝟒.𝟒𝐌 ($183.3M in first nine months) • Full-year capital spending plan: 𝐑𝐚𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐝 $𝟏𝟎𝐌 (up to $105M for new markets) ⚖️ 𝐕𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭: 🟢 Bullish The story got better because federal medical rescheduling is now delivering real cash flow and Georgia's expanded program is lifting sales past seasonal slowdowns. That cash let the Florida-based group pay off a $65 million mortgage early and spend $40 million on perpetual brand licences. One caution: the disputed back-tax liability climbed to $625 million, losses at the separated Harvest stores nearly doubled, and the fourth-quarter outlook points to slower sequential sales growth. The question now is whether Georgia and Texas can drive faster top-line growth before store overhead and back-tax interest eat into the new tax savings. Either new pharmacies and stores lift growth in 2027, or price cuts in mature states keep sequential gains in the low single digits. Fourth-quarter medical revenue and final Texas licence approval will tell. Full article with charts - link in bio 🐂 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 🟢🟢 𝐆𝐞𝐨𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐚 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐋𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐬 𝐌𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐒𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐒𝐮𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐒𝐥𝐮𝐦𝐩 Trulieve left its mixed-use stores in a separate business called Harvest in June, so reported revenue fell 20% from a year ago. In the continuing medical-only stores, revenue grew 3.6% from last quarter to $230.2 million, by our math. That beat the company's flat $222 million outlook during Florida's slow summer season. Georgia drove the beat after the state removed potency caps and allowed flower and vapes on July 1. Trulieve saw a "seven-fold increase in traffic in Georgia following medical cannabis program expansion on July 1" and opened its seventh store in Dunwoody. State patient counts rose 91% this year to 62,935, adding nearly 18,000 patients since August, by our math. Because Trulieve now holds final Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) registrations, it will also resume wholesaling medical products to 125 independent Georgia pharmacies. What to watch: Georgia store openings and wholesale reach in the fourth quarter. Turning that patient surge and pharmacy access into revenue would prove Georgia can carry company growth. 🟢 𝐅𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐂𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬 𝐃𝐄𝐀 𝐇𝐮𝐫𝐝𝐥𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐨𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐬 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰 "State licensed medical marijuana rescheduling unlocked major milestones including DEA registration, removal of 280E tax, and uplisting to the NYSE," chief executive Kim Rivers said. Section 280E is the federal tax rule that blocked cannabis companies from deducting normal business expenses. Without that penalty, third-quarter ordinary income tax was just $9 million. Lower cash taxes let the medical-only business generate $74.4 million in operating cash flow and $45.4 million in free cash flow. That put nine-month operating cash flow at $183.3 million, leaving just $41.7 million needed in the fourth quarter to meet the $225 million full-year floor, by our math. After the quarter closed, Trulieve used its cash to pay off $65 million of Florida mortgage debt two years early. What to watch: the federal administrative law judge's recommendation on broader cannabis rescheduling after the temporary stay expired on November 5. A favourable ruling would remove 280E taxes across the rest of the industry, though it could also invite larger rivals into medical states. 🟢 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧 𝐑𝐞𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬 In prior filings, Trulieve warned that price competition in mature markets like Florida and Pennsylvania was pressuring results. Management guided third-quarter medical-only gross margin to stay near the second quarter's 63.0%. Instead, gross margin rose 1.3 percentage points from last quarter to 64.3%, matching the first quarter's level. Cost of goods sold — the cost of growing and making the products — fell to 35.7% of revenue from 41.1% in the consolidated period a year ago. Across its stores, customer visits rose 3% and units sold grew 6% from a year ago, with in-house value and mid-tier brands Modern Flower and Roll One making up over half of all units sold. In Florida, Trulieve sold 55% more flower per store than the state average. What to watch: fourth-quarter gross margin alongside holiday discounting in Florida. Holding the 64% level during the promotional fourth quarter would show that scale at its 750,000-square-foot Jefferson County indoor farm is offsetting mature-market price cuts. 🐻 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 🔴🔴 𝐁𝐚𝐜𝐤-𝐓𝐚𝐱 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐩𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐬 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 $𝟔𝟏𝟎 𝐌𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 While federal rescheduling ended 280E taxes for 2026 onward, Trulieve is still fighting the Internal Revenue Service over returns from 2019 through 2025. The company's uncertain tax position liability — money it could owe if it loses the dispute — rose by $27.2 million this quarter to $625.4 million, with $610 million tied directly to the 280E challenge. That disputed bill is nearly double Trulieve's $326.7 million cash balance, especially after the company spent $65 million in cash after quarter-end to pay off a mortgage and $40 million in the quarter for brand licences. The tax dispute also drags on current earnings: Trulieve booked $18 million of non-cash interest expense on the tax liability inside its $26.3 million third-quarter tax provision. Management notes that the federal medical rescheduling order recommended retroactive tax relief, which would turn the liability into a one-time gain. What to watch: any formal Internal Revenue Service guidance or audit settlement on pre-2026 medical returns, because an adverse ruling would force Trulieve to raise outside financing. 🔴 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐚 𝐁𝐢𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐁𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐧 𝐚 𝐒𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐫 𝐁𝐚𝐬𝐞 "With meaningful growth expansion opportunities in Georgia and Texas, we are in the early stages of an accelerated growth cycle," chief executive Kim Rivers said. Yet management's fourth-quarter outlook calls for revenue to rise only low single-digits from the third quarter, a step down from the 3.6% sequential pace just delivered. Meanwhile, separating Harvest left Trulieve with a smaller revenue base to cover its corporate overhead. Selling, general and administrative expenses — store payroll and corporate overhead — climbed 3.8 percentage points from a year ago to 38.2% of revenue. Excluding one-off transaction costs of $9.8 million, overhead still rose 3.7 percentage points from a year ago and 2.2 points from last quarter to 33.9% of revenue. Operating margin rose 3.8 percentage points from a year ago to 18.5% only because depreciation and amortization fell 2.6 points to 7.7% of revenue after Harvest left. What to watch: overhead as a share of revenue in the fourth quarter, as rising store expenses without faster top-line growth will squeeze operating profit. 🔴 𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐋𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐓𝐞𝐱𝐚𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐃𝐫𝐚𝐠 𝐨𝐧 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭 Trulieve gave control of Harvest's 34 mixed-use stores to an outside investor in June to qualify for its New York Stock Exchange listing, while keeping a 90% economic stake. That stake is now bleeding into Trulieve's income statement, and Texas has not yet arrived to offset it. • Harvest loss share: $6.4 million in the third quarter, nearly double the $3.3 million loss in the second quarter • Harvest carrying value: down to $146.1 million, alongside an unpaid $21.3 million related-party service bill • Fourth-quarter profit outlook: management expects a net loss due to "purchase accounting adjustments for the Harvest deconsolidation" • Texas conditional licence: awarded in December 2025, with final approval still pending as of November Because Trulieve does not disclose Harvest's standalone revenue or cash flow, investors cannot see how well the $146.1 million asset is performing. What to watch: the size of the fourth-quarter Harvest adjustment and whether Texas grants final licence approval before year-end. 👓 𝐎𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞 𝐁𝐮𝐲𝐬 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐓𝐞𝐱𝐚𝐬 𝐁𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐋𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬 Trulieve paid $40.0 million in cash for intangible assets this quarter to close a "perpetual royalty free license for Alien Labs and Connected branded cannabis products in Florida and Texas". The deal includes plant genetics, trademarks, growing know-how, and a right of first refusal for new states, eliminating ongoing royalty payments on two of its premium partner brands. — • — • — 💲 𝐎𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐊𝐏𝐈𝐬 𝐃𝐢𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭 (𝟐𝟔𝐐𝟑): 𝟐𝟎𝟎.𝟔 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 ⇗ accelerating Diluted shares rose 4.9% from a year ago and 4.1% from last quarter as the return to positive net income brought employee stock awards into the count. Including unvested awards, management estimates pro forma shares at 204.1 million. The cannabis operator did not repurchase any shares under the $50 million buyback plan approved in June. 𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐝𝐞𝐛𝐭 (𝟐𝟔𝐐𝟑): $𝟐𝟖𝟗 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 ⇘ decelerating Reported debt of $289 million in notes payable and private placement notes carries a 9.6% average interest rate, alongside $192.3 million in construction and finance lease liabilities on the balance sheet. After the quarter ended, the Florida-based retailer repaid $65 million of mortgage notes due in 2028, which will lower fourth-quarter cash and future interest expense. — • — • — 🔮 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐐𝟒 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞: 𝐔𝐩 𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐥𝐞-𝐝𝐢𝐠𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐐𝐨𝐐 ⇘ decelerating 🠇 cut from Growth to accelerate into year end Cut against prior qualitative commentary. Management now expects fourth-quarter sales to rise by a low single-digit percentage from the third quarter's $230.2 million, or to about $235 million at the middle of the range, by our math. That represents a slower sequential gain than the 3.6% growth delivered in the third quarter, despite fourth-quarter holiday traffic. 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐟𝐥𝐨𝐰: 𝐀𝐭 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐭 $𝟐𝟐𝟓 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 ⇘ decelerating 🠆 unchanged from At least $225 million Unchanged. Management kept the full-year cash flow floor at $225 million after cutting it from $250 million last quarter for the Harvest split. With $183.3 million already generated in the first nine months, the floor leaves just $41.7 million for the fourth quarter by our math, down from $74.4 million in the third quarter. 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬: 𝐔𝐩 𝐭𝐨 $𝟏𝟎𝟓 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 ⇗ accelerating 🠅 raised from Up to $95 million Raised. The company lifted its full-year spending ceiling by $10 million for a second straight quarter to fund "investments in growth markets" like Georgia and Texas. Previous raises were $0 million, +$10 million, and now +$10 million. By our math, that leaves up to $41.5 million of spending for the fourth quarter, or 17.7% of implied revenue. — • — • — ❓ 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐐𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭'𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐟𝐥𝐨𝐰? Trulieve retains a 90% economic stake in Harvest, valued at $146.1 million, plus a $21.3 million service receivable. Because Trulieve's share of Harvest's net loss nearly doubled to $6.4 million this quarter, investors need standalone figures to judge if the asset is deteriorating. 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐧𝐞𝐰 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚 𝐩𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐣𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤? Last quarter, management highlighted nearly 1,000 weekly patient additions in Florida during July, up from 326 per week in the first quarter. The third-quarter materials omitted the weekly pace, leaving unclear whether that surge faded after summer promotional events. 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐭𝐡-𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐬𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐥𝐞-𝐝𝐢𝐠𝐢𝐭𝐬? Medical-only sales grew 3.9% in the second quarter and 3.6% in the third quarter, and the fourth quarter includes holiday shopping and a full quarter of Georgia's expanded program. A low single-digit outlook suggests either ongoing mature-market price drops or Georgia supply limits. 𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐒𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐫𝐮𝐥𝐞 𝐨𝐧 𝐩𝐫𝐞-𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 𝐭𝐚𝐱𝐞𝐬? The uncertain tax liability reached $625.4 million, accruing $18 million of quarterly interest. While the federal medical rescheduling order recommended retroactive relief, management has not given a timeline for when the tax agency will formally accept or reject its amended returns.