University of Oxford, Materials Royal Academy of Engineering Research Fellow Associate Fellow at Oriel College Im developing lightweight magnesium alloys.
Oxford, England
Joined March 2016
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Why is Martin Lewis being told things before the house of commons?
CONFIRMED. Gas Standing Charges to be scrapped. I've just come out of a meeting with the Chancellor. The gas standing charge will be scrapped in 2027 (my guess, either for 1 Oct price cap or the 1 Jan 28 price cap). Having campaigned against the moral hazard of standing charges for years, I'm pleased.
It's currently £108 a year. That cost will be shifted onto unit rates. We don't know how much yet, but I suspect just under 1p per kwH.
The Chancellor also said he will be talking to Ofgem about how they get rid of the charge on electricity as well, but that is 'trickier' apparently and will take longer.
This is primarily about the price cap standing charges. There will still be an open market, so other firms can offer other forms of prices with or without the standing charge. My suspicion is that once it goes on the price cap, it will tend to be reduced on other tariffs as well.
As for those on fixes: if you get a fix now, the rate of your fix is fixed, so this should not affect it. You will pay what you pay and if it has standing charges they will continue (some asking if they should delay fixing because of this, no if a fix is right for you and will save you money, don't let this change that - this is about the structure of bills, as opposed to the actual costs on bills).
About 60% of people will pay less due to this, 40% more. My guesstimate is the dividing line will be somewhere around 12,500 kilowatt hours of gas (can't know until there is actual pricing). According to a study by Nesta, this switch would leave the majority of people in all income groups under £100,000 better off.
Of course, when this does come in, if we're still in the nightmare that we are right now, there will need to be support put in for vulnerable higher users, who will have to pay more. Though hopefully by then the mid-east will have calmed and energy prices lower.
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That's all long term. The biggest issue in energy right now is that we're expecting a 27% rise in the price cap in January. I asked the Chancellor whether he will be intervening on that. He told me I'd have to wait for the budget, but reading between the lines, yes, there will be an announcement today.
Whether it's an increase in the Warm Home Discount, or whether it's council tax banned, or whether it's done via a payout for people in say council tax bands A-D as a proxy for household income as Rishi Sunak did who knows.
The distribution of jobs in Finance vs Manufacturing could not be more different. Over a fifth of finance jobs are within the square mile of The City. Finance is spread everywhere.
The effect is really very extreme! More linked:
This creates resource scarcity (extreme house prices), the costs of which disproportionately fall on those in the consumption economy.
We seem to undervalue manufacturing's natural tendency to create jobs where resources are less scarce:
jackaspinall.substack.com/p/…
Claude in PowerPoint is getting very good. Can now describe a new slide within a deck and it will oneshot a pretty good version and place it where it makes sense.
Were heading towards a world in which a speaker can talk, and AI assemble visualisations of the ideas in real time.
True, average equity stake is 16%, and thats without any investment. Oxford is 20%, often ends up closer to 40% after investment.
Seems likely the portfolio would be maximised if the stake was 2-5%.
Changing this is one of the biggest levels for UK growth there is!
Grecofuturism is very cool.
We could build steel structures and clad them in stone. Would be very cool.
The dynamic behind this is:
> Gas is used less as we have more renewables.
> Gas backup infrastructure is used even less
> Gas backup infrastructure becomes unprofitable because its used little.
> Govt hesitates to subsidise Gas backup infrastructure because we're "transitioning to renewables"
> Gas backup infrastructure and storage sites close.
> Power gets less secure in winter when gas supply is needed for both heating and power.
Situation significantly worse for lifts. Very bad for parents with prams or wheelchair users.
A Tube Station you're BANNED from entering.
That’s where Zone 1 Angel station could be heading.
The reason?
The escalators don't work.
One’s been BROKEN since April. Another could FAIL within six months.
Design work on replacements? It only starts this Autumn.
Britain 2026. Only solve a problem once it's a crisis.
Angel station isn’t alone, 153 of TfL’s escalators are operating past their shelf life.
That’s over 25% of all escalators on the tube line.
The Government must ACT & fix the maintenance backlog before every station becomes like Angel.
Do you agree?
NESO seem to be making the same mistake the banks made before 2008.
They have solid models of gas supply, interconnector flows, frequency control, winter demand and weather variability. But each one treats the other factors as independent of the one it’s modelling.
When things break, they aren’t independent. A cold, still high-pressure system over northwest Europe ramps up gas demand for heating and power, cuts the imports we rely on (because Europe has the same weather), drains storage over several days, and raises the risk of plant failures, all at once.
Before 2008, banks assumed mortgage defaults were independent and packaged them accordingly. But rising rates and falling house prices hit everyone together. The correlations had been measured in benign years, when defaults really were close to independent, and assumed to hold in a crisis. They didn’t.
NESO’s correlations are similarly drawn from ordinary days. To their credit, their own methodology acknowledges that LOLE can’t show whether risk is concentrated in a few severe weather years, or how deep and long shortfalls might be.
The fix is a coupled Winter Stress Test: run one severe, plausible scenario through all the models together, as the Bank of England now does for the banking system. Energy policy should be set against a correlated assessment of winter reliability, not a collection of independent ones.
You acknowledge these gaps; when will the Winter Outlook use one weather record and model interconnector imports and gas supply under the same cold, calm conditions?
There's separate reports from NESO showing interconnectors can't be assumed to be at the nameplate capacities, the gas supply is strained and weather events can be much worse than the scenarios modelled.
Given that, what's the margin of error calculated on the 5.9 GW surplus?
Britain’s electricity supplies are expected to remain secure this winter. ❄️
Today’s Winter Outlook forecasts a 5.9GW surplus, equivalent to a 9.5% buffer above expected peak demand.
Hear how we consider 30,000 potential scenarios in our latest forecast. 👇
Winter Outlook: bit.ly/4zQIbYF
Jack Aspinall retweeted
I’ve always thought it to be important to review the effects of legislation and whether it’s having the intended outcome, and if it’s not, that it should be repealed.
Though usually, if it doesn’t work, we still don’t repeal.
Jack Aspinall retweeted
I spend a lot of time, perhaps too much, thinking about the lost architecture of Britain.
Crystal Palace was the most tremendous loss of the modern era, yet it's rare to see any pictures of it. When built in 1851, it was the largest building in the world and three times the size of St Paul's Cathedral.
What's more, that immense ironwork and 293,000 glass panels went up in just 190 days for the World's Fair. Almost 1 million square feet of glass. An extraordinary feat.
It was razed in a fire in the 1930s and never rebuilt.
Excited to have been awarded this Research Fellowship to develop lightweight magnesium alloys.
Three Oxford early-career researchers who are creating innovative solutions to modern problems have been chosen for Research Fellowships by the Royal Academy of Engineering (@RAEngNews).
Read more ⬇️
ox.ac.uk/news/2026-10-20-oxf…
ALT A photograph of Oxford’s historic university buildings and spires bathed in golden sunlight, with green trees in the background. A navy blue banner at the bottom reads: “Oxford researchers awarded prestigious Royal Academy of Engineering Fellowships”, followed by “ox.ac.uk/news | University of Oxford”.
Jack Aspinall retweeted
"the Tribunal determined the open market rent was"
...
This Labour government’s transformative Renters’ Rights Act empowers private renters to challenge unreasonable rent increases.
If a tenant believes a proposed rent increase is above the open-market rent, they can refer the matter to the First-tier Tribunal.
In a recent case in Manchester where the Landlord proposed an increase in rent from £1,650 per calendar month to £1,700, the Tribunal determined the open market rent was actually £1,450 per calendar month.
We’re standing up for renters and our reforms are working.
gov.uk/residential-property-…
Jack Aspinall retweeted
We have nationwide rent controls now.
This tribunal didn’t just stop a rent rise within a tenancy, it cut the rent to below what had been agreed between the landlord and the tenant at the start of the tenancy based on a judgement of what the property is worth.
Entirely obvious from the outside. The political constraints put on NESO aren't compatible with engineering reality.
It’s official: a legal investigation has found engineers in Britain’s electricity grid control room are stressed because renewables make it so hard to keep the lights on. And when they raise concerns, managers won’t listen - they only want “good news”
thetimes.com/article/413d547…