Very hard to believe that a bakery in Berkeley CA of all places suffered because of their very brave and unpopular pro Palestinian and anti ICE views.
California bakery owners blame backlash over pro-Palestine stance for closure after 50-year run trib.al/RYfTgNj
Unless riots result in a full revolution (extremely unlikely), the end result is going to put more power in the group who didn’t align themselves with it. So leftists rioting in France will result in The National Front gaining more power. Get ready for Prime Minister Marine Le Pen.
So if a Cooper Flagg Debut Patch Card sells for $8M, and the debut jersey sells for $1M, the LeBron Olympics debut should be at least $1M. Let’s see how efficient this market is…
Jacob Agi retweeted
“Bronny James” was called a bad pick at 55 in the same draft… still on the Lakers roster and just outplayed Reed Sheppard in a playoff series 👀
Better playoffs than Risacher too
Jacob Agi retweeted
>be me
>discover effective altruism
>apparently normal charity is inefficient
>why donate to random sad thing when spreadsheet can tell you optimal sad thing
>fair enough
>buy mosquito nets
>save lives
>numbers look good
>feel powerful
>couple years later
>someone asks an innocent question
>why only count people alive today
>huh
>future people matter too
>obviously
>my grandchildren shouldn't matter less just because they haven't spawned yet
>reasonable.jpg
>keep following logic
>what about their grandchildren
>also yes
>what about people in 500 years
>sure
>5000 years
>why not
>500 million years
>starting to get weird but morality is morality
>open calculator
>humanity could survive for an astronomically long time
>could colonize galaxy
>could have trillions upon trillions of descendants
>maybe digital people too
>maybe simulated civilizations
>maybe dyson spheres full of happy uploaded minds
>calculator starts smoking
>realize currently living humans are rounding error
>8 billion people suddenly looking extremely beta
>future contains potentially 10^something people
>can't even fit beneficiaries in google sheets
>new moral priority unlocked
>protect the long-term future
>stop thinking in units of "people helped"
>start thinking in "fraction of cosmic endowment preserved"
>malaria?
>terrible
>but only kills existing humans
>AI extinction could delete the entire light cone
>nuclear war could permanently derail civilization
>bad institutions could lock in terrible values for ten million years
>someone invents wrong constitution in 2140
>quadrillions suffer
>better fund governance workshop now
>friend says maybe we should improve hospitals
>explain opportunity cost
>friend says hospitals are full of actual sick people
>explain scope sensitivity
>friend stops inviting me to dinner
>need to decide what to fund
>easy
>expected value
>suppose project has one in a million chance of preventing extinction
>sounds tiny
>but extinction destroys 10^50 future lives
>multiply
>mother of god
>$10 million project has expected value of several galaxies
>charity evaluation complete
>someone asks where the one-in-a-million number came from
>expert judgement
>which expert
>us
>how calibrated
>extremely thoughtfully
>reduce estimate to one in ten million to be conservative
>still beats curing cancer by 38 orders of magnitude
>epistemic robustness achieved
>someone says maybe project doesn't work
>assign 20% chance
>still astronomical
>maybe project makes problem worse
>assign 5% chance
>still astronomical
>why 5
>because 30 felt pessimistic
>publish 46-page report
>contains seventeen sensitivity analyses
>every sensitivity analysis begins after assuming intervention has positive sign
>critic says you're multiplying enormous hypothetical stakes by extremely uncertain probabilities
>yes
>that's literally why it's important
>critic says the uncertainty might be structural rather than numerical
>make probability smaller
>critic says no, I mean maybe your model is wrong
>make probability smaller again
>critic begins rubbing temples
>discover AI safety
>perfect longtermist cause
>AI might kill everyone
>or create utopia
>or seize galaxy
>or tile universe with paperclips
>or create billions of conscious software minds
>finally a problem with numbers big enough for me
>start AI safety nonprofit
>mission: prevent dangerous AI
>hire smartest people available
>smartest people immediately start building better AI to understand dangerous AI
>interesting
>we must understand capabilities to understand safety
>we must scale models to study alignment
>we must race ahead so less responsible actors don't get there first
>we must deploy systems to learn how deployment can go wrong
>we must build the thing quickly because building the thing quickly is dangerous
>outsider asks why the people most worried about AI apocalypse all work at AI companies
>complicated field
>company releases stronger model
>very concerned
>company begins training even stronger model
>extremely concerned
>company raises $14 billion
>concern reaches unprecedented levels
>need to influence government
>future is at stake
>normal democratic process too slow
>politicians don't understand exponential curves
>public doesn't understand x-risk
>experts must guide them
>who counts as expert
>people who understand x-risk
>who understands x-risk
>our friends
>someone objects that this seems politically convenient
>explain we're representing future generations
>future generations unavailable for comment
>develop concept of value lock-in
>terrifying possibility that one ideology controls civilization forever
>therefore extremely important that civilization adopts correct values before lock-in
>whose values
>let's circle back
>begin with impartial morality
>end with small group of people deciding what quadrillions of hypothetical beings would want
>beautiful arc
>meanwhile actual humans keep doing annoying things
>voting wrong
>having parochial attachments
>loving family more than strangers
>caring about local community
>getting upset when told their suffering is cosmically negligible
>evolutionary biases everywhere
>explain that moral intuition cannot be trusted
>except intuition that future digital people count
>and intuition that extinction is uniquely bad
>and intuition that our probability estimates are sane
>and intuition that our institutional choices improve the future
>those intuitions survived peer review
>someone donates $5k to local homeless shelter
>inefficient
>could have funded 0.0000000000003% of an AI governance researcher
>think of all the simulated people you just killed
>okay maybe don't phrase it that way publicly
>PR team says "future generations deserve a voice"
>much better
>journalist asks what longtermism means
>say "future people matter"
>everyone agrees
>great
>journalist asks what follows from that
>well technically we should redirect enormous resources toward low-probability interventions affecting astronomical futures
>journalist raises eyebrow
>return to "future people matter"
>motte has entered the chat
>critic: of course future people matter
>me: glad we agree
>critic: I don't agree that your institute knows how to help them
>me: why do you hate our grandchildren
>eventually notice uncomfortable implication
>if future value dominates everything
>then helping people today mostly matters through effects on future
>education matters because future institutions
>health matters because future productivity
>democracy matters because future trajectory
>human beings slowly become instrumental variables in their own moral philosophy
>see starving child
>feel compassion
>check spreadsheet
>child's direct welfare contribution negligible
>but perhaps childhood nutrition improves national institutional quality
>compassion restored
>tell myself this is impartial altruism
>one day assistant asks obvious question
>"how do you know your intervention actually improves the far future?"
>silence
>open spreadsheet
>increase column width
>add confidence interval
>assistant asks again
>"no, I mean how do you know the sign is positive?"
>stare into cosmic light cone
>10^50 people staring back
>none of them exist
>none of them can tell me
>none of them can falsify my assumptions
>realize I have invented the perfect constituency
>infinitely important
>completely silent
>and always represented by me
Maybe it’ll impact for 30 minutes but otherwise it will have no impact
sept 11 is the real event
not the towers
aug cpi drops friday 08:30 et
last inflation print before the sept 16 fomc
markets are already split
> polymarket roughly a coin-flip on a 25bp hike
> cme futures leaning hike (~58%)
> brent sitting near the high 90s
oil is the wild card in the headline rebound (~0.3% mom consensus)
btc cannot hold $80k even after strong etf weeks earlier
that is the tell
risk is pricing path of policy not vibes
leverage is already noisy into the print.... ~$255m liquidated in 24h
longs taking most of the hit (~$160m)
two paths are possible-
> soft cpi
> hike odds collapse
> btc gets another shot at $80-82k
>> hot cpi (oil-driven or not)
>> hike odds spike
>> $78k support gets stress-tested fast
position for the print not the narrative
the next 3 days matter more than the last 3 weeks of golden-cross posts
Jacob Agi retweeted
just remember, when this ends poorly and everyone hates you, that you did this to yourself
Which would you rather have - Wembanyama's game worn jersey from his first ever playoff game, or this card out of /50 that is currently at 240k with BP?
goldin.co/item/april-19-2026…
fanaticscollect.com/premier-…
Another Wemby jersey hits the market. From his 1st playoff game. This one appears to have been sold privately by Sothebys and is now being flipped. Now 30 unique Wembanyama jerseys to hit the market in 3 years.
goldin.co/item/april-19-2026…
WHERE ARE THE WEMBANYAMA GAME WORN JERSEYS?
One player I am fascinated by from a collectibles perspective is Wembanyama. He is generational, and also, from a collectability perspective, is bordering on being the Ohtani of basketball. His game worn jerseys are interesting. By all accounts, he wears 2 per game, 1 in each half. So the market should be flooded with game worn jerseys. He has played a total of 181 regular season games so far and 22 playoff games = 203 games. 2 per game = 406 jerseys.
However...
Sotheby's has sold a total of 27 (not counting random practice jerseys, skills challenge competition, media day...)
9 from his rookie season (8 regular season, + his rising stars jersey).
9 from his sophomore season (8 regular season, + his all star debut jersey)
9 for his third season (7 regular season and 2 finals games)
(interesting that its been 9 per year - seems like a pre-contracted number...)
Goldin has sold only 4 jerseys.
1 was a resale of the rising stars jersey (seller made 160k!)
1 was a signed/rookie that was in a fanatics under-wraps that sold for 350k.
1 was the notorious jersey swap with the young fan that was quickly shopped (73k)
1 was a game from third season (61k)
Grey Flannel, Heritage and SCP have never sold a Wembanyama game worn jersey.
So is this the permanent supply? Is Wemby's team saving these for himself in a warehouse somewhere? Equipment manager slowly releasing them? Where are they?
If you are trying to understand the value of a Wembanyama jersey this is critical to understand. Because it could be ~200 for his career, or it could be ~2000.
To add: Wembanyamas jerseys are currently being valued as if there will be 200 to 500 in circulation when all is said and done. Very unclear if that will be the case or not.
Another Wemby jersey hits the market. From his 1st playoff game. This one appears to have been sold privately by Sothebys and is now being flipped. Now 30 unique Wembanyama jerseys to hit the market in 3 years.
goldin.co/item/april-19-2026…
Ausar Thompson Rookie jersey up for auction at Goldin. Just $732 with BP right now. Shameful! Someone should buy this cheap and will make a killing. I have enough Ausar or else I would be buying.
goldin.co/item/nov-8-2023-au…
If I am being honest, while the sale of the Lakers rankles (this is too proud an asset to be passed around multiple times to the highest bidder), Lakers probably dodged a bullet. Walter seems to clearly be having money issues - but instead of clinging to the Lakers as his god-given right to own, when presented with an opportunity to move on, he swiftly took it. He could have run the Lakers like a poverty franchise (similar to the Busses and McCourt) but respected that he was not able to perform the public trust duties associated with owning the Lakers and sold them to someone who hopefully can fulfill those duties. Now, I hope that we don't waste another year of Luka's prime and GO for it. It's unfortunate that Luka and the Lakers players need to operate amidst so much turmoil. Hopefully internally everything remains smooth sailing. And i hope that the Iger/Kuschner duo is a good ownership group. Iger is smart - don't see why they can't be an effective group.
Honestly, I fully sympathize with the woman here.
Matchmaking client in NYC, 32, finance, Jewish, medium handsome but funny, all-around good dude.
I think I’ve found his dream match: she’s 26, amazing family, sexy + refined vibe, Jewish obviously, and down to meet him.
I make the introduction, then… he texts me saying she bailed.
I check in with her. She says he asked her to dinner at Crown Alley, and based on that alone, she knows he’s not a fit.
Obviously I feel bad for RJ, and yeah it’s lame to be judgy about first date plans, but…
I actually agree with her on this one.
The problem has nothing to do with wanting a more expensive first date. This woman just knows her vibe, and giant pretzels don’t exactly give “sexy” or “refined.”
RJ either needs to adjust his go-to first date plan, or go after the type of woman who wants to meet over a ham and cheese toasty 🤣
