...RAINLESS AGAIN... UNTIL NEXT WEEK, ANYWAY.. ...SOUTHERN JET STREAM / EL NINO - DRIVEN RAINS KICK OFF NOVEMBER... Sponsored by The Kingery Team at Mountain to Lake Realty 540-420-2030 BillyKingery.com Great weather for viewing the fall colors this week, but the ground is getting dry in a hurry again, thanks to a large and in-charge dome of dry air and high pressure sitting on top of us like a big, fat, elephant. Gotta make this boring pattern make sense and exciting somehow.... The pattern with the high over us isn't without some subtle dry cool fronts from the north every few days, but there's no moisture from the gulf with the pattern. Today (Wednesday) may be a touch cooler with more clouds around thanks to NE winds behind a front that moved over us overnight. After some morning fog early Thursday, sun breaks out as temps warm back up for the afternoon hours. We'll jump from the 60's today (Wed) to the mid 70's Thu-Fri. Another dry cool front moves in Friday with just a few clouds. Temps fall from the mid 70's Friday to the lower 60's for the weekend as we turn the clocks back Saturday night / early Sunday morning. Check the batteries in the weather radios, smoke and CO-2 detectors. You'd be surprised how many Co2 exposure calls I hear come in over the scanner year-round in Franklin County alone! As we've discussed in detail over on Patreon (patreon.com/jameysingleton) enhanced tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Pacific seems so far from home, but each storm acts as a heat engine and over time sends so much moisture and heat to the Arctic that the Arctic in turn pushes DOWN it's cold air to make room for the incoming warm air. That's basically how the weather works! This give and take happens in cycles and phases. Things have been heating way up in the Tropical Pacific from this record strong El Niño, but we haven't noticed much from it in Virginia because that heat hasn't had anything cold to push AGAINST. In other words, the jet stream pattern over the Northern Hemisphere is about to buckle with sharp and high ridges and waves of heat bringing down the super cold air to balance out the hot-cold trade-off. In fact, the coldest air in the entire Northern Hemisphere - the Polar Vortex - should be displaced and or split into two southern sinking lobes - one of which may ooze south into the U.S. in November, bringing cold and snow to some areas - depending on exactly where the core of the cold ends up. This normally happens around December 1 so it's a little early. The El Niño may play a role in keeping the south mild yet soggy as the energy from everything culminates into increasingly significant storm systems from the south with time. Monday and Tuesday a warm front will push in and the jet stream veers from the SW, so a few scattered showers are possible, but no washout. Later in the week another stronger system from the southern jet stream may wrap heavy rain and storms and maybe wrap-around snow in the November 5-8 timeframe, possible in two additional storms instead of one. There are lots of details to sort through next month but the story headline is the calm weather will likely come to an end as we head into late Fall.

12:07 a.m. TUE - 10/27/26 - …GULF CLOSED BY PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THIS WEEK… Sponsored by The Kingery Team at Mountain to Lake Realty 540-420-2030 BillyKingery.com Dew points are not quite as low as they were the last few nights but it will still be locally foggy and chilly when you wake up in the morning hours of Tuesday. Tuesday will be a touch warmer with 70-degree temperatures by afternoon and sunshine. The warm up is ahead of our next cold front that will move in a new air mass Wednesday… but from the north it’s just a reinforced version of what we already have seen all week. Instead of moving, a strong area of high pressure, which has been the dominating force in 2026 - only bowing out every now and then for rain - will stay in place. Despite the shift in winds from West to NE Wednesday behind the dry cool front, the only thing changing will be the high and low temps. They’ll peak tomorrow around 70 but drop again Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 under a few scattered clouds but no rain. Frost returns heading into the end of the work week at night. ☔️ The rain is being shunted way WEST under the high in a clockwise 🔁 direction. It’s worth repeating - say it with me: until the high moves out of the way into the Atlantic, gulf moisture has no way to get here from the south! We will be in a worsening drought again soon bc the moisture from Isaias can only hold up the water table for so long. “Up” is a relative term this year. I see the southern jet stream pushing the high east in early November for one or two rainy systems. That’s the good news. But we have to wait for now. Whatever gets here needs to STAY. The post about the upcoming Polar Vortex splitting and dropping dips of cold air south will also push the warm air north meaning the waves in the jet will amplify. Systems will become more active and numerous, and likely persist for longer periods of time. Hang in there.

Pancakes 🥞 ❄️ for breakfast! I’m gonna go back and check out the dual pol stuff from this.

Are all these new sites and apps using Python / MetPy? The clean looking ones? We studied FORTRAN in college. Or json? Help me I’m old and confused 🛌 the world scares me. *takes out dentures* (literally have dentures) The old “fred.for” days. I’m more into local research and coming up with a few new Parameters. Got two started right now but keeping them close to the vest for now. Gotta eat. But eventually if they work I’d love to share them with the wx world before I get too old.

These are 850 mb dew points tonight. The ridge stays north of the gulf and blocks the moisture. If you go back to spring of this year it’s been that way all summer. A closed gulf with a few random exceptions. Not the El Niño I grew up with. That said, our La Niña years used to be dry but lately they were wet! Climate change at play or that pesky Neg PDO.

5:50 p.m. SAT - 10/24/26 - 🍁 MORE REALISTIC FALL COLOR UPDATE 🍁 - ADJUSTED FOR TEMP / RAINFALL TRENDS IN 2026 - 📊 …WEEKEND OF 10/24-10/25/ 2026… Sponsored by The Kingery Team at Mountain to Lake Realty 540-420-2030 BillyKingery.com You may have noticed many Fall Foliage Apps and Maps are way ahead of the actual amount and intensity of our color this year. This is likely due to the source being tied more to traditional norms and elevations more than recent weather-related trends. Colors are indeed peaking in the HIGHEST ELEVATIONS but in the lower elevations we are still seeing very low color (if any in some areas). This will change as eventually the decreasing sun angle and colder temps take over and win out. The string of crisp and cold low temperatures and warm afternoons is helping make the color that’s out there really shine. The best spots for color this week will be in the mountains of the New River Valley into the Alleghany Highlands and Greenbrier Valley of West Virginia. Now the higher up you go the closer to the peak the colors are so the peak is coming fast for the highest ridges above 5,000 feet. But for most everyone else the next 1-2 weeks will really grab your attention with each passing day, especially where Isaias brought up the 4” of rain. Blame the drought if you don’t see good color by November 5-15. A telling sign of drought’s influence are brown colors dominating. So the next 1-2 weeks into early November will be the time to get out if you haven’t already. It may take another 3-4 weeks for color to max out along and near Highway 58 through Southern Virginia - EAST of Patrick and Henry Counties (towards South Hill and Emporia to Suffolk.) Feel free to share your colorful pics with the time and date of the photo and your location in the comments so I can continue to calibrate the forecast with the actual observations! Stay safe and enjoy! 🍁

…and here, in the quiet dim of the home office, we witness the rare and majestic mating ritual of Mus computeris. Notice how the dominant male subtly adjusts his DPI settings to impress his mate. Despite the absence of cords, the connection between these two specimens is undeniable. A truly fascinating look at peripheral reproduction…

#RNK issues Public Information Statement (PNS) at Oct 18, 8:57 AM EDT for 3 forecast zones in [NC] and 14 forecast zones in [VA] and 5 forecast zones in [WV] ...2026 Growing Season Ends in Mountains... mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.…

It’s raining at my Home Office in Franklin County’ Jamey's Forecast LLC Home Office October 17, 2026 at 06:15AM Jamey's Forecast LLC Home Office

It’s raining at my Home Office in Franklin County’ Jamey's Forecast LLC Home Office October 17, 2026 at 02:29AM Jamey's Forecast LLC Home Office

A Freeze Warning has been issued for Alleghany NC County, and for Carroll, Craig, Floyd, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, Alleghany VA, and Bath Counties in Virginia from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. Sub-freezing temperatures down to 31 are expected. Frost and freezes could damage unprotected outdoor plumbing and kill sensitive vegetation and crops. patreon.com/jameysingleton for More! The Kingery Team billykingery.com 540-420-2030

A Freeze Warning has been issued for portions of northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia, and southeast West Virginia from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 are expected. Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops and sensitive plants and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. patreon.com/jameysingleton for More! The Kingery Team billykingery.com 540-420-2030

A Frost Advisory has been issued for Surry and Wilkes Counties in North Carolina, and Amherst, Bedford, Patrick, Botetourt, Franklin, Roanoke, and Rockbridge Counties in Virginia from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. Temperatures near 37 will form frost, which can harm sensitive plants. Cover or bring them indoors. patreon.com/jameysingleton for More! The Kingery Team billykingery.com 540-420-2030

Freeze Warning issued for Alleghany, Giles, Pulaski, Montgomery, Carroll, Floyd, Craig, & Bath in VA/NC from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sun. Sub-freezing temps down to 31F may cause frost/freezes that can kill crops and damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

Frost Advisory is in effect for Surry and Wilkes Counties, and Amherst, Bedford & Others, from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sun. Temps near 37F may form frost, which can harm sensitive outdoor plants—cover them.

A Freeze Warning has been issued for Ashe, Watauga, & Others in northwest NC, southwest VA, and SE WV from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. Sub-freezing temps as low as 31F may cause frost/freezes that can kill crops and damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

7:12 p.m. FRI - 10/16/26 - ❄️ SNOW ❄️ BY MORNING IN WV RIDGE TOPS!! Sponsored by The Kingery Team at Mountain to Lake Realty 540-420-2030 BillyKingery.com Our first major cold front is moving in right now, bringing a few gusty showers and storms to parts of our area at this hour. But rather than simply clear out tomorrow, setup Saturday is one that holds the upper level energy “back” behind the front in the colder air (instead of right along the front). Down sloping NNW winds will shunt any moisture and keep us above freezing for most of the area, albeit chilly with temps falling into the 40’s and 50’s. In the highest elevations at and above 5,000 feet up temps will drop more sharply. With the upper air disturbance moving in after the cold air arrives in the Greenbrier Valley, rain will mix with and change to wet snow early Saturday morning. The snow will be limited in coverage and mostly fall in places like Snowshoe. Looking ahead, El Niño-fueled energy with the southern jet stream will likely carve out a stubborn, possible intense low or Nor’Easter off the Carolina coast later next week, forming an “Omega Block” with a high over a low on the eastern seaboard. The low pressure could pull rain back into the region off of the Atlantic and churn up some coastal flooding and surge, especially on the Outer Banks by next Tue/Wed. Stay tuned!

A Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia, and southeast West Virginia from late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 29 are possible. Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation. patreon.com/jameysingleton for More! The Kingery Team billykingery.com 540-420-2030