Fund manager | Podcast host | Simplifying the stock market for all Podcast: https://nitter.gq/t.co/X5MMlh6WdO
Utah
Joined June 2009
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Gold roughly doubled from 2009 to 2011 and silver went parabolic. @PatrickCeresna recalls money pouring into every gold startup, then a 5 to 7 year bear market in miners.
Full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=vbgJUvdu…
More at: johnsonrandall.com/
AI will change our lives, says @PatrickCeresna, and the bubble sits in misallocated capital. Too many players got funded, and the biggest will swallow those that run out of money.
Full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=vbgJUvdu…
More at: johnsonrandall.com/
A controversial take from @PatrickCeresna: Oil prices could be the trigger for the next global recession. When energy costs surge, oil-dependent economies can grind to a halt, just as $150 oil helped fuel the 2008 recession.
Full episode: youtu.be/Y4o21VTWj0c
More at: johnsonrandall.com
This conversation with @PatrickCeresna was super fun and informative! There was a slight audio issue that's been resolved... enjoy!
Gold pays nothing while you wait, and Treasuries pay 5%. @carleygarner says that lets you be wrong by 5% a year and still break even, which is why rising yields make gold heavier.
Full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=YJJCTl6M…
More at: johnsonrandall.com/
Buying oil to hold for 10 years misreads the market. @carleygarner has seen it go from $150 to $30 within months, more than once, and expects a bust after six months of boom.
Full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=YJJCTl6M…
More at: johnsonrandall.com/
Every trip to the Vegas Strip tells me the economy is doing very well. @carleygarner calls it one of the best indicators, since tourists cut back first when money gets tight.
Full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=YJJCTl6M…
More at: johnsonrandall.com/
In the paper ticket days, a losing trade could sit in an error account until it worked out. @vwaptrader1 found retail has no such cushion and had to learn to trade from scratch.
Full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=NEf2-CyL…
More at: johnsonrandall.com/
Ask @vwaptrader1 his favorite setup and he'll say the FBI agent posing as a fund manager. He thought a setup meant a sting operation, then found retail traders chasing indicators.
Full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=NEf2-CyL…
More at: johnsonrandall.com/
I asked Dean Christians if today's tech heavy index is different. He doesn't think so: energy in the early 80s also grew too big for the index, and tech's weight will come down.
Full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=1fHxo0Li…
More at: johnsonrandall.com/
Since the 1950s, tech has led six months after a 10 to 20% S&P correction 90% of the time. When Dean Christians's system flags buys that are mostly tech, that's where he goes.
Full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=1fHxo0Li…
More at: johnsonrandall.com/
Line up NVIDIA's earnings against its lows and price turns up first. Dean Christians gives fundamentals no role short term and uses them to confirm a turn over the medium term.
Full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=1fHxo0Li…
More at: johnsonrandall.com/
I asked Dean Christians what he does when markets start to correct. He goes to cash, and only in an extended bear market does he short, through puts or an inverse ETF.
Full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=1fHxo0Li…
More at: johnsonrandall.com/
Always follow the money. Plus it might be time to stop shipping things to California. It’s my home state but it’s lost its mind
Diesel just hit a record $8.44 a gallon in parts of California.
Call it what it is: a supply shock. Refined products can't get out of the Middle East after the war knocked out refining runs, and the US is one of the only places left exporting diesel. Los Angeles is above $8 and the national average keeps climbing.
Diesel moves freight, farming and factories, so a spike like this taxes the real economy while broad prices stay calm. The other side of the trade is refiners, and their margins are going vertical.
UVXY takes permanent damage every day from contango and beta slippage. Michael Listman points out both sit outside what VIX is doing, which is why it keeps sliding toward zero.
Full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=viX83vqK…
More at: johnsonrandall.com/
Tuesday’s record highs were a head fake.
It took less than one session for the "rates and oil relief" narrative to completely reverse.
With the 10Y back at ~5.35%, the 30Y hitting 5.70%, and Brent back above $101, the market hasn't escaped its discount rate cage.
6 things driving the market today...
$SPY $QQQ
The Breakout Isn’t Confirmed:
Yesterday’s highs relied on oil and yields dropping simultaneously. Both snapped right back. $SPY -0.5% | $QQQ -1.0% $IWM -1.1%
Long yields aren't waiting on the October Fed pause they’re being driven by term premium (at a 12-yr high) and fiscal supply.
Key levels: A 10Y close <5.25% stabilizes the base case. Holding >5.35% raises the odds of a failed equity breakout. Keep duration exposure tight.
A lot is going on in the market today/this week:
1) AI Momentum vs. Concentration: Tech is pushing Nasdaq to record highs, with Nvidia nearing $6T and $QQQ outperforming. However, market breadth is narrowing, making the index heavily dependent on the next AI buyer.
2) Rates Relief Meets Heavy Supply: The 10 year yield pulled back to 5.26%-5.28% and Brent crude slipped below $100. But massive Treasury supply hits this week ($58B 3Y today, $39B 10Y Wed, $22B 30Y Thu), testing long duration demand after 30 year yields recently touched 5.66%.
3) ISM & Stagflation Risk: September ISM Services dipped to 54.9, while the Prices Paid component hit a 4 year high. Slower growth plus sticky input costs limit the "soft growth = lower yields" trade.
4) The Google-Constellation Deal: Google’s 20 year, 3,590 MW nuclear power agreement validates massive structural demand, though CEG's 11% opening jump prices in years of future benefits.
5) Catalyst Gap & Volatility: VIX is dropping into a light economic calendar ahead of the October 14 CPI report. Low index realized volatility masks single name risk.
6) Consumer Earnings Kickoff: Constellation Brands ($STZ) reports tonight, followed by $LEVI, $PEP, and $DAL. These will test consumer margins, pricing power, and volume trends.