Energy and commodities columnist at Bloomberg. Co-author of the 'The World for Sale' Any views expressed are my own. [email protected]
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This week, The World for Sale comes out in paperback
It explains how oil and commodity markets work, how they influence geopolitics, and the extraordinary power of a few traders you've probably never heard of
Please take a look smarturl.it/TheWorldForSaleu
Javier Blas retweeted
COLUMN: "… The current price of oil seems wrong. It’s either too low because of the risks of the US and Iran escalating the conflict, or too high because Washington and Tehran will sign a deal. Brent trading at around $90 is an oddity…"
@Opinion
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Putting the surge in Saudi oil production into context.
Because, yes, Oct 2026 is *technically* the highest since Feb 2026. But only because Riyadh surged output just before the war. Take that one-month blip away, and the Oct figure is the highest in 4 years (and it's among the highest over the last 10 years).
Javier Blas retweeted
BREAKING: Authoritarian government in power would like to remain in power.
“ U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran’s hard-line leadership is determined to hold on to power at nearly any cost, according to two officials with direct knowledge of the information, which suggests economic pain alone may not lead to regime change.” nytimes.com/2026/11/10/us/po…
Official Saudi oil data for October:
Wellhead production: 10.563m b/d
Supply to market (net of storage): 9.203m b/d
Saudi Arabia has been exporting crude so far this month at a rate that suggests the kingdom has lifted its oil production toward the 9-10 million b/d range.
Using both the Persian Gulf and (more importantly) the Red Sea, Riyadh has boosted crude exports during the first 22 days of October to >7 million b/d, reaching pre-war levels (see @Vortexa chart below). Adding clean and dirty refined product, the export flow Oct 1-22 reaches ~8.5m b/d, slightly below pre-war levels of >9m b/d.
The crude export surge -- and the production boost -- could be part of a "use-while-you-can" strategy aimed at pumping ahead of the potential restart of the war post US midterms (or before the Houthis of Yemen damage another key oil installation -- several near misses already in recent days, including an attack that killed two contractors near a major oilfield).
Note: using Oct 1-2 as typically it takes at least five days for dark transits across the SoH to become clear.
BREAKING: Saudi Arabia tells OPEC it boosted oil production in October to pre-war levels, reaching 10.6 million barrels a day.
(Riyadh added that part of the output surge went straight into storage. Saudi Arabia official OPEC production quota is ~10.5m b/d).
CHART OF THE DAY: The US gasoline average national retail price saw today the largest one-day drop in 18 years (~3.6¢ down to $3.94 per gallon, per AAA data).
More to come as the retail market catches up with the large drop in wholesale costs in recent days.
COLUMN: "… The current price of oil seems wrong. It’s either too low because of the risks of the US and Iran escalating the conflict, or too high because Washington and Tehran will sign a deal. Brent trading at around $90 is an oddity…"
@Opinion
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Qatar has lost its first long-term LNG contract after Polish energy company Orlen SA exercised its right to cancel the deal following multiple force majeures. The contract between QatarEnergy and Orlen was due to remain in force until 2034. h/t @SStapczynski @ruth_on_LNG
Javier Blas retweeted
"The President doesn't just have two options. It's not just return to war or sign a ridiculous peace deal. We won't do a stupid deal. The third option we have is to continue to do what we do now," Rubio said, according to three people in the G7 meeting
Trump swung between war and diplomacy — then chose a third way. My story on @axios
axios.com/2026/11/10/trump-i…
The first (of the 3 major agencies: IEA, OPEC and EIA) estimate on Saudi crude production for October is out: @EIAgov pegs it at 9.3 million barrels a day.
CHART OF THE DAY: The COP31 climate summit is focusing on boosting electrification. That’s good as too much of the world’s primary energy is lost as heat.
Yet, when thinking about electrification is important to remember how that electricity is generated: coal and natural gas are omnipresent.
US gasoline retail prices have a LOT of space to fall.
Yes, rockets and feathers. Yet, judging by the very slow drop in retail prices vs the plunge in wholesale costs, the feather must be from a tiny hummingbird.
Don't be surprised if the White House starts to apply pressure.
"… Iran would love a deal. The problem is, the conditions they continue to place are absurd. Like they're not even serious right now. [...] Eventually, the economic reality penetrates the skull of even the most radical lunatic..."
Canadian oil (WCS) prices will start with a 5-handle very soon.
During the world's largest ever oil crisis. Quite the shock.
To be read between the lines.
ExxonMobil’s preliminary agreement to return to Venezuela is a testament to President Trump’s leadership.
A country deemed “uninvestable” earlier this year is already attracting significant commitment from one of the world’s largest energy companies.
Tremendous progress in a remarkably short time.
nytimes.com/2026/11/09/busin…
Very preliminary data (only Nov 1-5 and revisions likely). Based on that limited data, Saudi Arabia appears to have boosted its oil output further in early Nov from Oct, with its **combined crude and refined products exports** matching pre-war levels for first time since Feb.