Tropical Penguin (@jdm_trades) header
Tropical Penguin (@jdm_trades) profile picture

馃惂 Educational market commentary, thesis breakdowns, watchlists. My substack: https://nitter.gq/t.co/0W5O6Llyib No personalized financial advice.

Joined September 2025
This what a day of persistent distribution and portfolio deleveraging looks like ($QQQ)
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SpaceX 馃 Solaris Energy
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I was kicking myself for not starting a position in EWZ few weeks ago but in hindsight I was lucky. There is a reason why I never invest in Brazil (I am originally from Brazil). It is not a safe environment for investing, and it will never be.
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Replying to @LogicalThesis
You are very wrong here. Do not conflate equity performance or market sentiment with long term trends. A personal agent like Muse will be extremely popular. As any nascent tech, we are still trying to figure out the best way to monetize and utilize this. But it come.
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Nothing revolutionary here but a good reminder that lower yields are a major driver to $ITA returns. An end to the war and an implied fall in short term yields can drive the sector to ATHs.
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This $AAON mid 70s buying zone goes back as far as Jun 2024. Today it tapped the zone again, and bounced...
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Some of the names really popped off today. Notably Karman, StandardAero, FTAI. Karman: Morning Star-type bullish reversal, followed by a strong bullish continuation candle on the 4H StandardAero: bullish reversal with follow-through FTAI: bullish engulfing pattern on the 4H
Though still early, $ITA is on track for another bearish candle, that would make 9 weeks in a row--the highest in the series by a mile. I do believe we are seeing a local bottom soon in aero+defense with midterms approaching. Iran conflict is the wildcard.
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A rate-hiking cycle could push this market into bear territory, with nowhere to hide. But if this is only a pause or correction, I expect aerospace & defense to lead the next leg higher. $ITA outperformed the major indices today. Leaders show relative strength early.
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Though still early, $ITA is on track for another bearish candle, that would make 9 weeks in a row--the highest in the series by a mile. I do believe we are seeing a local bottom soon in aero+defense with midterms approaching. Iran conflict is the wildcard.
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This is the current list of names that meet the criteria in the last 3 months. Some of these names I did not buy or exited really quickly. I'd avoid recently IPO'ed names unless its value is like 50% or lower from its IPO price.
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Replying to @Caan_Pau
My project was restricted to 25M and 5B mkt cap
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