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Jan Dutton retweeted
Could Germany experience a multi-day Dunkelflaute period beginning October 29?
Today's 00Z AIFS-ENS and ECMWF forecasts indicate a more persistent low Dunkelflaute Risk Index (DRI) signal than GEFS.
The percentage of ensemble members forecasting at least 3 consecutive days below the historical 10th-percentile DRI threshold is:
• AIFS-ENS: 49%
• ECMWF: 37%
• GEFS: 13%
These percentages cover each model's forecast horizon and represent ensemble-member fractions, not calibrated event probabilities.
Explore the Point-in-Time Weather Forecast API: worldclimateservice.com/pit-…
#Dunkelflaute #EnergyMeteorology #Germany
Jan Dutton retweeted
Attending Energy Trading Week (ETW) Americas 2026 on October 27–28? Stop by World Climate Service at Booth #34 and meet Kevin Stenson and Jan Dutton!
If you work in power or natural gas trading, we'd welcome the opportunity to discuss how weather forecasts and data fit into your trading and risk management workflows.
Topics include:
• Weather regimes and long-range weather risk
• Medium-range, subseasonal, and seasonal forecasts
• Historical and real-time weather data APIs
📍 Find us at Booth #34! Check out the attached event floor map to see exactly where we're located.
We look forward to connecting with you in person!
Want to schedule a meeting with Kevin Stenson? Book a time here: info.prescientweather.com/me…
#EnergyTradingWeek #EnergyTrading #EnergyMeteorology #WeatherRisk
Jan Dutton retweeted
Which climate index has the strongest relationship with ERCOT winter HDDs?
Using World Climate Service data, we analyzed 35 climate indices against ERCOT population-weighted heating degree day (HDD) anomalies over 45 winters (1981–82 through 2025–26).
The results: ABNA and EPO have the strongest historical correlations with winter HDDs.
• ABNA: r = -0.40
• EPO: r = -0.38 (p = 0.01)
• Both ranked among the top five indices across all four winter periods analyzed.
Lower ABNA and EPO values have historically been associated with higher ERCOT HDDs.
What about El Niño?
• Niño 3.4 ranked 27th of 35 indices (r = +0.07, p = 0.65).
• Of the six strongest El Niño winters, four had below-normal HDDs and two had above-normal HDDs.
• HDD anomalies ranged from 14% below normal to 37% above normal.
These results do not rule out an ENSO influence on ERCOT winter weather. However, EPO and ABNA have shown substantially stronger historical relationships with winter HDDs.
Even the strongest correlation explains only approximately 16% of winter-to-winter HDD variability. These relationships provide historical context, not a forecast.
Which ISO and climate index combination should we analyze next? Let us know in the comments.
#EnergyMeteorology #EnergyTrading #ERCOT #NaturalGas #WeatherRisk #ABNA #EPO #ENSO
Jan Dutton retweeted
Another great example of wx regime analysis pointing to forecast uncertainty. Check out EU regime uncertainty for Sept 26/27.
AI leans towards European Block.
Physics (but not GEFS) leans Zonal.
If one of these is realized, there are DE wind capacity util differences.
Jan Dutton retweeted
European Block dominates the AIFS-ENS 6–10 day regime forecast, with its probability declining at longer leads. Around week 3, Scandinavian Trough chances increase.
Why does that matter for an energy meteorologist?
These Grams et al. (2017) regimes have very different historical German wind utilization distributions. As regime probabilities evolve, so does the wind risk embedded in the forecast.
Weather regimes reveal the risks hidden by the ensemble mean and are available in World Climate Service.
#EnergyMarkets #WeatherRisk #WindPower #EnergyTrading #SubseasonalForecasting
#WeatherForecasting #WeatherRegimes
Jan Dutton retweeted
Good question. Here is ECMWF’s 00z forecast issued July 23 compared with what actually fell during the 24 hours ending 7:00 AM CDT on July 24.
The result is mixed, not a broad overperformance. A localized band from southern Nebraska into Kansas came in wetter than forecast, with some counties receiving roughly 0.5 to 2.0 inches more than forecast where the heavier cells developed. South Dakota and northern Nebraska were generally overforecast, while most of Iowa remained dry, broadly in line with the
forecast.
State area means:
SD: 0.05 inch observed vs. 0.19 inch forecast
NE: 0.24 inch vs. 0.26 inch
KS: 0.15 inch vs. 0.13 inch
IA: near 0 inch
Overall, this was more of a localized placement miss in a few heavier cells than a widespread case of rainfall exceeding the forecast.
Wouldn't it be great to understand today's corn and soybean weather forecast in the context of prior forecasts? You'd gain information about how severe the forecast is (or isn't).
How dry is today’s Corn Belt forecast compared with the July forecast history?
All 4 00z models forecast below-normal US corn production-weighted precipitation from July 24-Aug 6:
• GEFS: 50% of normal, driest 2% of July forecasts since 2017
• AIFS-ENS: 47% of normal, driest 4% of its 2025–2026 history
• ECMWF: 61% of normal, driest 10% since 2017
• GFS: 67% of normal, driest 20% since 2017
The models differ in magnitude, but the direction is consistent: all four forecasts are drier than normal, with GEFS and AIFS-ENS closest to the dry edge of their respective histories.
The next question is how much of this dryness verifies through the rest of July into early August.
Start a risk-free CropProphet trial using the link in the comments. 👇
#OOTT #AgWx #Corn #Soybeans #CornBelt #GrainMarkets
Jan Dutton retweeted
How extreme was the late June heat across Europe’s winter wheat belt?
On Jun 27, the EU winter wheat production-weighted maximum temperature reached 89.8°F, or 17.6°F above normal, the hottest day in the 46-year record.
It was part of a sustained heat event:
• Jun 19-28 recorded 10 straight days above the previous daily record
• Jun 1-Jul 11 ranked warmest since 1981 at 5.6°F above normal
• 2026 logged 5 days at or above 86°F and 15 days at or above 80°F
For wheat traders, the scale and persistence of the heat are the key takeaways.
Get a risk-free trial of CropProphet using the link in the comments below. 👇
#OOTT #Wheat #GrainMarkets #AgWeather #CropWeather #HeatDome #winterwheat #wheat
Wouldn't it be great if there were a RONI prediction market?
Wait . . .
crucialab.net/market/enso/
Jan Dutton retweeted
A customer asked us why the 15-day weather forecast affected the corn and soybean yield forecasts differently.
The short answer: cooler late-June temperatures do not affect corn and soybeans the same way.
In this analysis, cooler average temperatures during the current 14-day forecast period are more closely associated with higher end-of-season corn yield, but lower end-of-season soybean yield.
That helps explain why CropProphet’s latest ECMWF 15-day yield forecast shows a slightly positive national change for corn, while soybeans show a negative national change.
#OOTT #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn #Soybeans
Jan Dutton retweeted
Reed Timmer noted that the Corn Belt has been affected by recurring severe weather setups since March, with only a brief break in May.
As of June 16, 2026, counties with large hail reports of 2 inches or greater account for the highest accumulated percentage of U.S. corn production at this point in the season compared with all prior years since 2012.
For wind reports of 80 mph or greater, 2026 is also near the high end of the historical range shown. As of June 16, only 2022 has a higher accumulated percentage.
Today’s SPC Moderate Risk across portions of Illinois and Indiana could further change these rankings.
#AgWx #GrainMarkets #Corn #CornBelt #SevereWx
Live emergency update - lead jet streak could cause failure scenarios for #tornado outbreak in central Illinois into northern Indiana. Moderate risk includes Peoria/Springfield to South Bend. Supercells fire on front 3-4 pm if ample recovery happens
Jan Dutton retweeted
@StandardGrain this morning asked: when is it too much rain, and at what point is it a bullish story? So we looked into it.
🌧️ When is it too much? Above about 173% of normal, roughly 14 inches in a typical Corn Belt county. Yields fall to about 11% below trend at the wettest extreme.
📈 When is it bullish? Both tails are, but drought is the bigger, cleaner bull (driest seasons 33.5% to 47.1% below trend). Too much rain is bullish too, just smaller and mostly a wet Iowa/Minnesota story.
Rain only turns bullish once it's genuinely extreme.
#OOTT #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn #CornBelt
Jan Dutton retweeted
Over the past 60 days, precipitation has been below normal across portions of the western Corn Belt.
The latest 00z ECMWF, AIFS-ENS, and GEFS weather forecasts show continued below-normal precipitation across portions of the western Corn Belt during the next 14 days.
This weather pattern is worth monitoring as the calendar approaches July and the corn pollination window.
Use CropProphet to analyze weather risk with objective, data-driven insights: bit.ly/TryCropProphetTwitter
#OOTT #AgWX #AgWeather #Weather #Corn
Jan Dutton retweeted
It's hard to overstate how remarkably the @CopernicusECMWF C3S models have escalated their forecasts for El Niño.
For example, the 6-month Niño3.4 warming ending Sep-Nov is expected to far exceed 1997 - and 1997 was previously an outlier by this metric.
Jan Dutton retweeted
A soon-to-be-released CropProphet tool identifies the USDM-defined drought category for corn-growing counties within the top 20% of U.S. corn production.
Northern Illinois contains several of these high-production corn counties, with many currently classified as D2, Severe Drought, based on the latest USDM observation cutoff date shown in the graphic.
Today's 00Z ECMWF 14-day Illinois corn production-weighted precipitation forecast shows a surplus relative to seasonal normal, with the largest daily total forecast being today. As a result, the overall 14-day forecast outcome will be strongly influenced by how much precipitation occurs today.
#OOTT #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn
Jan Dutton retweeted
Check out our soon-to-be-released USDM graphic, which will be available in the CropProphet Enterprise interface.
This GIF shows corn-growing counties by U.S. Drought Monitor-defined drought level.
The animation filters counties by corn production share, starting with all corn-producing counties and narrowing in 10% increments to the top 10% of corn-producing counties.
Try CropProphet: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
#OOTT #AgWx #AgWeather #USDM
Jan Dutton retweeted
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center flagged a moderate risk of extreme heat with a Rapid Onset Drought risk designated across portions of the central Corn Belt for June 5-11.
This may not be bad news for corn yields right now. CropProphet's 1986-2025 analysis (rank correlation of the 30-day production-weighted average temperature vs. end-of-season corn yield, plotted by window end date) shows the relationship is positive for windows ending in May through early June, roughly neutral for windows ending mid-to-late June, then turns sharply negative for windows ending in July, when heat becomes a clear yield drag.
Today's 00Z 14-day ECMWF and AIFS forecasts show above-normal US corn production-weighted average temperatures of +3.6°F and +5.3°F respectively.
Heat in May/early June and heat in July are not the same story for corn.
#OOTT #Corn #Ags #Wx #AgWx #AgWeather #CPC
Jan Dutton retweeted
Today's 00z ECMWF, AIFS, and GEFS all forecast below normal US corn production-weighted precipitation over the next 14 days.
• ECMWF: 56% of normal
• AIFS: 51% of normal
• GEFS: 59% of normal
We are now in the US weather market season. It is time to start monitoring the weather forecasts more closely.
#OOTT #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn #CornBelt
Jan Dutton retweeted
While the amplitude of the latest El Niño forecasts is a worthy headline, the latest C3S models show more variance than last month - both for traditional and relative Niño3.4 SSTs.
All models have warmed, but some much more than others.
(DWD is less credible - poor skill)
Jan Dutton retweeted
Good news as the U.S. Midwest growing season gets under way: drought/dryness have all but disappeared in the heart of the Corn Belt in the last two months, even as the Plains and Southeast have been very dry.
While drought in the Plains keeps worsening, the percentage of U.S. corn/soybean production NOT currently experiencing drought has increased significantly in the past two months.
In early March, only about 42% of U.S. corn production was outside a drought/dryness category. That figure has now risen to roughly 66% (top left panel).
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn #Plant2026 #Weather